MUNSTER TASK FOR ULSTER

Not my best headline, I know, but it really does sum up what sort of a match the Ulstermen will face this Saturday. If you sat down and listed the grounds that are hardest to come away with a win from, you’d list the usuals: the RDS, Stade Marcel-Michelin, Welford Road etc. But undoubtedly, on that list would be Thomond Park.

And it is where Ulster find themselves this weekend, trying to maintain an eleven-match unbeaten streak in the league. Couple that with the team they have selected and the side they are coming up against, and you are looking at one enormous challenge. If Ulster can walk away from this game unscathed, it will be possibly the biggest step they have taken this season so far.

Part 2 of the season starts here…

Fortune favours the brave

Or so they say anyway. And Ulster will need to draw upon all of their bravery to even come away from Limerick with the losing bonus point, let alone the win. Countless numbers of teams have tried and failed to leave the southern province with something to show from their efforts.

But Ulster have something that all of those other teams don’t have – the upper hand. This side comes into the match on a personal high – top of the league by nine points (with this game in hand) and top of their Heineken Cup pool with only one loss to their name. This season couldn’t be going much better for the Ulstermen.

That’s not all though. Ever since that win in April, there have been whispers of a change in power in Irish rugby, with Ulster replacing Munster as the “second” province. And Ulster’s start to this season would only back that up – maybe even leapfrog them into first ahead of Leinster. Certainly all the bragging rights belong to the “noisy northern neighbours”.

Unfortunately though, fixture scheduling usually results in the two sides always being unevenly matched – last season’s league meetings both resulted in bonus point victories for the home sides, while this season the two teams met early in the campaign when neither had their internationals back from the summer Tests (Ulster won that game 20-19).

This weekend is no different. The usual Christmas matches meant Mark Anscombe decided to play his full side against Leinster and then rest them this weekend. It is the way it has been in the PRO12 for a long time and it is probably how it will continue.

Ulster’s side takes on an unfamiliar look with eleven changes from last weekend’s victory over Leinster. Rather than list every single change I will simply state who remains – Craig Gilroy and Luke Marshall are the only backs that remain after being released from the Ireland camp, while Neil McComb and Robbie Diack maintain their positions in the pack. Lewis Stevenson makes his first start since his return from injury.

For Munster it is a case of all-change. After resting their internationals last weekend, they have a full squad to choose from, and they are firm favourites to win their match with such stars available to them. Simon Zebo, Conor Murray, Damien Varley and Peter O’Mahony return to the Munster team, who can go equal second with a bonus-point win, which is what they are aiming for. A certain Ronan O’Gara is also on the bench.

How can Ulster win this game? As I’ve already said, they need to have the belief in their ability, or they will get nowhere. These guys can play rugby, but if they think they are simply going down to lose then they will. Once they get there, they have to try and win the physical battle – which is not an easy task. If Ulster can get an upper hand in the scrum then it is possible that their backs can cause Munster plenty of damage.

I don’t think that will happen though. They are coming up against a side that is (and probably will be for a long time) motivated by revenge and will simply have too much for Ulster’s young guns to handle. It will be a case of damage limitation for the Ulstermen, and try to head back to Belfast with their heads held high. Prediction – Munster by 11.

At Thomond Park, Limerick

Saturday 29th December, 17:30
RaboDirect PRO12 - Round 12

MUNSTER
15. Denis Hurley, 14. Doug Howlett (c), 13. Casey Laulala, 12. James Downey, 11. Simon Zebo, 10. Ian Keatley, 9. Conor Murray; 1. Wian du Preez, 2. Damien Varley, 3. BJ Botha, 4. Donncha O’Callaghan, 5. Billy Holland, 6. Peter O’Mahony, 7. Tommy O’Donnell, 8. Paddy Butler.

Subs: 16. Mike Sherry, 17. Marcus Horan, 18. Stephen Archer, 19. Dave O’Callaghan, 20. James Coughlan, 21. Peter Stringer, 22. Ronan O’Gara, 23. Felix Jones.

ULSTER

15. Adam D’Arcy, 14. Chris Cochrane, 13. Mike Allen, 12. Luke Marshall, 11. Craig Gilroy, 10. Niall O’Connor, 9. Paul Marshall; 1. Callum Black, 2. Rob Herring, 3. Adam Macklin, 4. Lewis Stevenson, 5. Neil McComb, 6. Mike McComish, 7. Robbie Diack, 8. Roger Wilson (c).

Subs: 16. Niall Annett, 17. Ricky Lutton, 18. Tom Court, 19. Alan O’Connor, 20. Ali Birch, 21. Michael Heaney, 22. Stuart Olding, 23. Ricky Andrew.

Referee: Alain Rolland (IRFU)

Assistant referees: Dudley Phillips, Sean Gallagher (both IRFU)
Citing commissioner: Tom McCormack (IRFU)
TMO: Kevin Beggs (IRFU)

HALFWAY HOUSE

The PRO12 is now at the halfway stage with eleven games played. And if you look at the table there is a quite surprising statistic – Ulster have won all eleven!

Yes, we are only in late December and Ulster have defeated all comers, be they Welsh, Italian, Scottish or Irish, racking up 47 league points in the process. Compare that to their points total at this stage last season, a measly 21, that is incredible.

The latest to fall to the Ulster sword were interprovincial rivals Leinster, and they fell in pretty dramatic fashion…

Leinster boys beaten black and blue

In reality, the match only had one winner. From the first minute, Ulster’s intensity was far superior to that of their opposition and it showed in the way the match went. The scrum, the breakdown and the match in general swung in the direction of the Ulstermen and the victory will do wonders for this side.

Why? Because that’s only Ulster’s second win in 19 attempts against their neighbouring province. To get that win was crucial for Mark Anscombe’s side, not only in the league, not only to get back to winning ways after their first defeat of the season, but to get the Leinster ‘monkey’ off their backs. For years, Ulster have lived in the shadows of Leinster and Munster, but now they are emerging as a potent threat.

Friday’s victory just proves where they are as a team – right at the very top. They are firm favourites to finish top of the regular season league table and they control their Heineken Cup pool. The win over Leinster is the final monkey off Ulster’s back and now they have free reign – nobody scares them anymore.

The match itself was one of Ulster’s most complete performances of the season. They had Leinster wrapped up in every area of the pitch – especially in the scrum, which was an area that was expected to be dominated by Leinster considering every single member of their pack had been capped for Ireland.

But instead, it was Ulster’s international front row who were the more effective, continually punishing the men in blue for their lack of discipline and eventually forcing referee George Clancy to award them a penalty try just before half-time.

That sparked the Ulster train into life. 13-9 up at half-time, the hosts ran in two more tries to lead 27-12 heading into the last few minutes. But for Rory Best’s sin-binning in the 69^th minute, it may have stayed like that for longer, but as it was, with only 14 men, the Ulstermen couldn’t hold out for the full 80 and Fergus McFadden crossed late on to make it 27-19 at the end.

Ulster can really push on from this win. With the pressure firmly off them, it seems likely that they will send down a weakened team to Thomond Park this weekend in order to rest their players for the return of the Heineken Cup in January. It may result in a crushing defeat, but the management won’t mind. Long term gain for short term pain is the apparent message.

No matter what the result will be on Saturday, Ulster will head into the New Year in a fantastic position in both competitions – many points clear in the league and in the running for a home quarter-final in the Heineken Cup. Who could complain? Only every other Celtic club…

Merry Christmas!

Finally, I would like to say ‘Merry Christmas’ to all my loyal readers. Make sure you keep tuning in throughout 2013 for more Ulster Rugby news and views!

BACK TO BUSINESS

Ulster haven’t beaten Leinster since October 2009. Fact.

What better time to get rid of that slump than now? After an embarrassment last weekend, Mark Anscombe has named a strong side in an attempt to get back to winning ways, and to beat Leinster would be the best cure for their poor performance.

The PRO12 returns in some style…

White Knights vs. Boys in Blue

This time last season, it was Leinster who were making all the headlines, tearing up Europe’s best sides with some brilliant attacking play – they were sprinting away at the top of the league and were firmly in place to get a home quarter-final in the Heineken Cup. Sound familiar?

Ulster are basically the same this season, only better. With only one loss in fourteen games they are top of the PRO12 with a nine point cushion, and, despite that loss to Northampton, they are still among the favourites to secure a home quarter-final.

Are we seeing a power shift in Irish rugby? I was asked that by a friend earlier in the week and I responded, rather hastily, “No, Leinster will come back from this. They’re too good.” I still stick by that. Leinster are a class team, on and off the field. Their play on the field is remarkable – the way they cut through teams with ease is incredible and off the field, the way they stood by Ulster after the Nevin Spence tragedy was so reassuring that rugby has got its priorities right.

That’s not to say that Ulster aren’t a real threat now – they are. But I still believe that if a neutral was looking for an Irish team to back to win a trophy, they would go for Leinster. They know how to win, they have to ability to grind out those wins from games that seem to have gotten away from them and they have all the talent needed to compete on two fronts.

Ulster are not far away from that though, and although Leinster are the team they emulate at this time, this is not the test they will be looking at most. No, that accolade will have to wait until the rematch in March at the RDS, when both sides will have their full strength teams out ahead of the European action the following weekend.

That will be the first test – how well Ulster’s first team is. The second test will also be in the league, but in a different way – the table. Where Ulster finish in the PRO12 table will be the judge of how far their squad depth has come, and that is how Leinster have been so successful over the years. They can rotate at will and still have a competitive side, something which will be evident this weekend.

For they have made eight changes from the side that lost to Clermont Auvergne last weekend in the Aviva Stadium and still look like a powerful side – especially in the scrum, which boasts plenty of stars, all of which have been capped by Ireland at some point in their careers. And it looks like that is the area where Joe Schmidt is targeting the home side.

The backs are just as good with three more internationals lining up there – Eoin Reddan, Fergus McFadden and Gordon D’Arcy. Ian Madigan is an exciting prospect at 10 and Andrew Conway is another one to watch out for on the wing, with plenty of pace.

But Ulster have internationals of their own, especially in the backs where there are three Ireland caps and one Springbok cap. Craig Gilroy will match Conway’s pace on the wing, and it will be a case of youth vs. experience when Luke Marshall takes on Gordon D’Arcy in midfield. The forwards have a more inexperienced look however. With three locks and a flanker unavailable for selection, it is a case of ‘make do and mend’ for Anscombe who has to play Iain Henderson at 4 again alongside Neil McComb, while Robbie Diack comes into the back row for Roger Wilson.

All in all you could say that the two sides are missing six players from their ‘strongest’ sides so they are probably even. But there is one factor that works in Ulster’s favour – the Ravenhill factor. Last weekend the atmosphere went rather flat when the Ulstermen went behind. Tomorrow, the fans will have to get behind the team from the start in an attempt to get the side back to winning ways.

It’s been three years since Ulster last defeated Leinster. Since then the two sides have met seven times, and Leinster have come out on top every single time. Will that run end tomorrow? It’ll be close as I believe the scrum battle may be won by the Dubliners, and that is a big victory for them. But I think Ulster have the backs to do the damage and just creep away with the win. Prediction – Ulster by 5.

At Ravenhill

Friday 21^st December, 19:05
Live on BBC2 NI and RTE TWO

ULSTER

15. Jared Payne, 14. Andrew Trimble, 13. Darren Cave, 12. Luke Marshall, 11. Craig Gilroy, 10. Paddy Jackson, 9. Ruan Pienaar; 1. Tom Court, 2. Rory Best, 3. John Afoa, 4. Iain Henderson, 5. Neil McComb, 6. Robbie Diack, 7. Chris Henry (c), 8. Nick Williams.

16. Rob Herring, 17. Callum Black, 18. Adam Macklin, 19. Alan O’Connor, 20. Roger Wilson, 21. Paul Marshall, 22. Paddy Wallace, 23. Adam D’Arcy

LEINSTER

15. Noel Reid, 14. Andrew Conway, 13. Brendan Macken, 12. Gordon D’Arcy, 11. Fergus McFadden, 10. Ian Madigan, 9. Eoin Reddan; 1. Cian Healy, 2. Sean Cronin, 3. Michael Bent, 4. Leo Cullen (c), 5. Devin Toner, 6. Kevin McLaughlin, 7. Sean O’Brien, 8. Jamie Heaslip.

16. Aaron Dundon, 17. Heinke van der Merwe, 18. Jamie Hagan, 19. Tom Denton, 20. Rhys Ruddock, 21. Isaac Boss, 22. Andrew Goodman, 23. Adam Byrne.

Referee: George Clancy (IRFU)

Assistant referees: Peter Fitzgibbon, Olly Hodges (IRFU)
Citing commissioner: John Cole (IRFU)
TMO: Dermot Moloney (IRFU)

Around the grounds

Only four other games in the PRO12 this weekend. How will they finish?

Blues vs. Scarlets – Away win

Glasgow vs. Edinburgh – Home win
Zebre vs. Treviso – Away win
Connacht vs. Munster – Away win

UPSET FOR ULSTER

For the first time this season, Ulster tasted defeat. After such a brilliant win last weekend in Northampton, they crashed to a poor defeat at the hands of the Saints on Saturday night. It was a poor night.

The loss will be a slap in the face for Ulster – people were referring to them as invincible. Not any more. Quite simply, Ulster were outplayed by the side they outplayed a week before, and they deservedly lost.

It was a night to forget for every Ulster fan.

Poor performance

Let’s not beat about the bush – Ulster played poorly and the Saints played well. The Saints did their homework after the match last week and Ulster did not. The result was probably the correct one based on how the two teams fared – from start to finish, Northampton threatened and they played Ulster well.

That said, Ulster didn’t play well themselves. They made so many basic errors that if they had won, it probably would have been unfair on the visitors. Ulster fell apart, something which they haven’t done all season, and just could not break through a solid green defensive wall.

There’s no doubt about it, the basic errors was what lost them the match, make no doubt about that. Ulster made 20 handling errors – a number which is unacceptable at this level. If they had held even half of those it could have been a different story. The Ulster players have said that Mark Anscombe is a coach that really focuses on the basics. If this is true, then they will be getting a real earful in training this week.

Up front, they were demolished. After completely dominating the Saints scrum only a week before, the tables were turned and the Saints got their revenge. The new front row of Tonga’uiha, Haywood and Doran-Jones won the battle over the Ulster scrum and that was what set the platform for the win.

It was due to the fact that Iain Henderson was thrown into the second row in place of Johann Muller. The push in the scrum that Ulster had the previous weekend was gone and it allowed the Saints to gain that upper hand. Maybe if Neil McComb had been playing then the strength may have been maintained, but as it is, Henderson started and it was the wrong call.

In fact, all of the forwards had a poor match. Ulster had a nightmare at the breakdown, they were turned over on multiple occasions and just could not compete with the intensity that Northampton brought.

All of the backs had a poor match too. They created next to nothing in attack and looked very lacklustre all night. Anscombe will have a lot to look at in the week or Ulster could be looking at two straight defeats considering they have Leinster at home next weekend.

And on a sad note, it was upsetting to see Tommy Bowe come off so badly injured near the end of the match. Hopefully he is all right and we will see him back in a white shirt before the end of the season.

Ulster may have lost, but it’s not the end of the world. They are still in control of the pool and still have a great chance of getting a home quarter-final. But if Ulster don’t improve for next weekend, then things could start going downhill for them, very quickly.

Ireland’s fall

What a change a week can make. After Ulster’s demise, it was a very poor weekend in general for the Irish provinces.

After their incredible win over the Basque giants Biarritz, Connacht headed to the south of France hoping to cause another big shock in the Heineken Cup. It was not to be. In absolutely terrible conditions, the Galway side were nilled in a comprehensive 17-0 defeat. That result leaves them facing an uphill battle to qualify, even for the Amlin Challenge Cup.

On Sunday, Munster travelled to London hoping to beat the Saracens at Vicarage Road. But after a brave struggle, the Limerick side came out on the wrong side of a 19-13 scoreline. It leaves them third in their pool and in danger of missing out on the knockouts for the second time in three years – a difficult proposition for them.

But the biggest shock of all was Leinster’s defeat in the Aviva Stadium to Clermont. The European champions just have not been firing on all cylinders this season and crashed to their second straight defeat in the tournament, losing 28-21 and leaving them on the brink of elimination. Realistically only 10 points from their last two games will see them through, but the way they have been playing, this seems unlikely.

It looks increasingly likely that Ulster will be the only Irish side in the quarter-finals, but you can never rule out the giants of Leinster and Munster. And don’t think that Connacht will roll over any time soon either…

SAINTS COME MARCHING TO BELFAST

The situation is pretty clear for Ulster now – win tomorrow and they are on the verge of qualifying for the quarter-finals of the Heineken Cup for the third year running. In fact, a win may even put them into the knockout stages if other results go their way.

That will be the last thing on Ulster and Mark Anscombe’s mind though. First of all, they must do the job in Ravenhill, and then let the other result take care of itself. But they must be wary of a strong Saints backlash – this is a side that must win, or they will be out of Europe. It is a win, or nothing for them.

So it should be set up for a great game of rugby…

Home comforts

It’s hard to believe that it’s six weeks since Ulster last played a match at Ravenhill. That game was a 45-20 mauling of Edinburgh and was only the province’s ninth victory of the season. Since then, they have gone on to win away twice in Italy at Zebre and Treviso, in Llanelli against the Scarlets, and finally last weekend they notched up another impressive away victory over the Northampton Saints.

That’s now thirteen wins in a row and it is a super run that Anscombe’s side have put together. But standing in front of their fourteenth win is the same side that capitulated against them last weekend – the Northampton Saints. And as I said, beware a wounded Saints side – they are out for revenge.  Because they were taken apart at home like they have never been before.

Despite being on top by way of statistics (they had the vast majority of possession and territory), they weren’t on top when it came to the scoreline – and that’s what mattered the most. Every opportunity that fell to the Ulstermen was taken without hesitation, and that was why they left Franklin’s Gardens with the full five points on offer.

That win will count for nothing though if they don’t back it up this weekend. The win last weekend was one of the best in the club’s history. But a loss tomorrow would rank in one of the worst losses for them. After dismantling the Saints on their own patch, it would be a massive disappointment if they couldn’t come away with the win at home as well.

But a lot of people are getting ahead of themselves – this game is by no means a given victory. Forget what happened last week, Northampton will have looked at that game and then forgotten about it. It was a rare blip in their season and they will be looking to show that it will not happen again and they will come back stronger than ever.

Indeed, what are the permutations of an Ulster loss? It would immediately bring Northampton back into the picture, and it would elevate Castres into a very good position heading into Rounds 5 and 6, if they beat Glasgow as predicted. It would tighten the Pool up a lot – something which Ulster will not want at all, bearing in mind they have to travel to the Stade Pierre Antoine for that final match.

The team is very similar to the one that was selected last week. The only change is a forced one – Iain Henderson moves into the second row in place of the injured Johann Muller, and Nick Williams slots into 6. And this is expected – why change a winning side? This side has all the experience and talent needed for the job and even come away with a bonus point.

On the flipside, the Saints make six changes to their side. The most obvious one is the introduction of Mike Haywood at hooker instead of the suspended Dylan Hartley while, surprisingly, England international Courtney Lawes is relegated to the bench and replaced by vice-captain Phil Dowson. In the back line Tom May comes in for Dom Waldouck at inside centre. The half backs are completely changed as well, after last week’s dismal showing – Lee Dickson and Stephen Myler take over at 9 and 10. Brian Mujati is also dropped, his place being taken by England Saxon Paul Doran-Jones.

The Ulster game plan will be much the same as last week’s – beat the Saints in the scrum, and then let the backs loose on a weak Northampton defence. If they play with the same intensity, same power and same accuracy as last week, coupled with the ‘Ravenhill Roar’ it could be a cricket score. If that intensity drops by even a couple of per cent, it could be a completely different story.

As for my prediction, I think Ulster will win. With the Saints gunning for the win, and after last week’s performances, I don’t think they will be as poor as they were then. I also don’t think Ulster will come away with the bonus point either simply because they aren’t targeting it. And I’m sure I speak for all Ulster fans when I say I would take a 3-0 win right now. Prediction – Ulster by 9.

Saturday 15^th December, 6pm

Ravenhill
Live on Sky Sports 1 HD from 5:45pm

ULSTER

15. Jared Payne, 14. Tommy Bowe, 13. Darren Cave, 12. Paddy Wallace, 11. Andrew Trimble, 10. Paddy Jackson, 9. Ruan Pienaar; 1. Tom Court, 2. Rory Best, 3. John Afoa, 4. Iain Henderson, 5. Dan Tuohy, 6. Nick Williams, 7. Chris Henry (c), 8. Roger Wilson.

16. Nigel Brady, 17. Callum Black, 18. Ricky Lutton, 19. Neil McComb, 20. Robbie Diack, 21. Paul Marshall, 22. Luke Marshall, 23. Craig Gilroy.

NORTHAMPTON SAINTS

15. Ben Foden, 14. Ken Pisi, 13. George Pisi, 12. Tom May, 11. James Elliott, 10. Stephen Myler, 9. Lee Dickson; 1. Soane Tonga’uiha, 2. Mikey Haywood, 3. Paul Doran-Jones, 4. Samu Manoa, 5. Calum Clark, 6. Tom Wood, 7. Phil Dowson (c), 8. GJ van Velze.

16. Ross McMillan, 17. Alex Waller, 18. Brian Mujati, 19. Mark Sorenson, 20. Courtney Lawes, 21. Martin Roberts, 22. Ryan Lamb, 23. Luther Burrell.

Referee: Nigel Owens (Wales)

Assistant referees: Gwyn Morris, Jonathan Mason (both Wales)
TMO: Derek Bevan (Wales)

Around the grounds

This is a crucial weekend for many teams – it’s the first weekend where teams can be officially knocked out of the Heineken Cup, and it’s the first weekend where a team can qualify for the quarter-finals. Here’s how I think it will go down…

Edinburgh Rugby vs. Racing Metro 92 – Away win

Biarritz Olympique Pays Basque vs. Connacht Rugby – Home win (TBP)
Ospreys vs. Toulouse – Away win
Benetton Treviso vs. Leicester Tigers – Away win
Harlequins vs. Zebre – Home win (TBP)
Exeter Chiefs vs. Scarlets – Home win
Leinster Rugby vs. ASM Clermont Auvergne – Home win
Montpellier vs. Cardiff Blues – Home win
Castres Olympique vs. Glasgow Warriors – Home win
Saracens vs. Munster Rugby – Home win
Toulon vs. Sale Sharks – Home win (TBP)

LUCKY 13

Forget all superstitions. Forget all curses and spells. Ulster blew all of those out of the window on Friday night with one of the most complete performances in their season so far.

In only their third win in England, the Ulstermen passed, crashed and tackled their way to a deserved try bonus point victory over the Northampton Saints, which puts them in full control of Pool Four in the Heineken Cup.

It couldn’t have gone any better.

The Saints go marching out
Unless Northampton manage to storm Fortress Ravenhill next weekend, they will be out of the Heineken Cup at the pool stage for the second season running, and will be fighting it out with Castres for second place in the pool, and a place in the Amlin Challenge Cup.

On the flipside, Ulster find themselves in the most commanding position possible. With 14 out of a possible 15 points gained in their first three games, they are now six points clear of Castres in second place, and eight points clear of Northampton in third. With two home games to come, it would be considered rather foolish to bet against the Ulstermen topping the pool for the first time in their history and gaining a home quarter-final.

The bonus point will have helped Ulster’s home quarter-final goal enormously. If they can recreate Friday’s performance this Saturday, and against Glasgow, then a quarter-final position could even be guaranteed before they travel to Castres.

But first, they have to overcome the Northampton Saints for the second time on Saturday – this time at Ravenhill. And they will have to draw on everything they did right on Friday night to come away from the game with the same result.

They will have to go with the same team as they did on Friday, or a very similar team anyway. All fifteen players did themselves immensely proud with their performances – not one of them let the team down. Man of the Match went to Jared Payne (who was magnificent) but in reality, it could have gone to any of the Ulster players.

It was the experience that did it for them. Before the game there were questions over some of the selections from Mark Anscombe, but the players proved that the right team was on the pitch. The cool heads of Andrew Trimble and Paddy Wallace justified their selections – the former scoring a great try and the latter putting in some incredible tackles.

As touted before the game, the scrum was where the game was going to be won and as the scoreline shows, Ulster dominated the forwards battle. Despite his great showing last weekend against the Scarlets, Callum Black was left on the bench – Tom Court was the man who replaced him, and showed exactly why the Ulster management had kept faith in him. The entire night he had Brian Mujati in his back pocket and was Ulster’s rock around the park.

In fact, all of Ulster’s players could be dubbed rocks. Their rock solid defence was what allowed them to maintain the opportunity to launch the final counter attack and score the bonus point try. It also kept the Saints out of losing bonus point range, which more or less knocks them out of the competition (barring an unexpected win in Ravenhill).

Rory Best’s comment after the match summed up the situation perfectly – ‘This win means nothing if we don’t back it up next weekend.’  Ulster have to guard against complacency – they’re now going for a remarkable fourteenth victory in a row, and a win which could guarantee their qualification for the quarter-finals with two games to spare if other results go their way. But first and foremost comes another victory – the Saints will want revenge. They know they’re not completely out yet and will desperately want to stay in the competition – Ulster will have to prepare for that backlash.

Get ready for another Christmas cracker on Saturday…

Allez les Bleus

It was a good weekend to be from France – six of their seven teams came away from their matches with victories. The only losing side was Biarritz, who on paper were supposed to have the easiest match away to Connacht! The French sides continued on the impressive form shown by their national side to take full advantage of the failures of the Home Nations. With three French teams topping their pools and the other four all still in with a realistic chance of qualifying, it is clear to see where the power in European rugby lies.

It wasn’t a bad weekend for Irish rugby either, with three of their four sides coming away with wins. But Wales, Italy and Scotland are all in real trouble – the three nations couldn’t manage even one victory last weekend in seven attempts and the four Scottish and Italian sides are more or less out of the competition already. Something is going wrong in the Celtic nations.

Odds on

Ulster’s win counted towards a lot more than just points in the Heineken Cup.

In the unofficial European club rankings, Ulster have topped the table for the first time, stealing first place off Leinster (who drop to 4^th) and leapfrogging Toulon and Toulouse. To see the top 20 go to www.eurorugby.com.

Can Ulster continue to deal with the expectation that is now being placed on them? We’ll see…

EUROPEAN UNION

There’s always a nice buzz around the province when European rugby returns – and this weekend it’s no different.

The double headers are back again and this year, Ulster have two Christmas crackers on their hands – against the Northampton Saints. Both sides will have recent memories of each other from their one and only other meeting two seasons ago in the Heineken Cup quarter-final in Milton Keynes.

Ulster will be hoping the result tomorrow won’t be the same as it was then…

Unlucky 13?

After their win in Llanelli last Sunday, Ulster are now twelve games unbeaten in all competitions and they won’t want that run to come to an end in England tomorrow. Unfortunately, the most eagle-eyed of fans will realise from my subtitle that this is Ulster’s thirteenth game – and we all know what the number thirteen represents…

But Mark Anscombe is insistent that the unbeaten run won’t affect the Ulstermen’s preparations – it hasn’t so far. And ironically that is what keeps the run going. By not thinking about it, it doesn’t get in the way, and that method shouldn’t change now. It’s worked twelve times before, it will hopefully work a thirteenth.

In fact, the game offers more than just points actually – there is the chance for Ulster to win their 50^th European match tomorrow night. A stat they will want to have as soon as possible.

As for the teams, it is the clash of the heavyweights. Ulster have opted for experience in Tom Court over Callum Black at prop, while Northampton line up with the ‘usual’ front row, consisting of Tongan international Soane Tonga’uiha, England hooker Dylan Hartley and former Springbok Brian Mujati. The Saints pride themselves on their brutal forward power – they have won penalties from 50% of all of their driving mauls and scrums this season. That is a staggering fact.

So it will be up to Ulster’s internationals to front up too – Court is joined in the front row by Rory Best and John Afoa. The team that gets the upper hand at scrum time will control the match, because then they can pin the opposition back into the corners and work forward with the driving mauls.

Can Ulster stand up to the might of the Saints pack? I’ll be honest and say I would’ve been a lot more confident if Callum Black had started, considering the way he controlled the scrum against the Scarlets last week. But even so, I think it will be a very even contest up front. It may even come down to the second row to decide who edges the forwards battle – and it’s even closer there!

So with a dead heat in the scrum, it should come down to the team that has the most creative backs. Or will it? Because the two teams are very similar there too. Bolstered by the return of Ben Foden, Northampton boast an electric back line, spearheaded by the Pisi brothers – Ken and George. One a winger, one a centre, both possess incredible speed and can carve a defence open in one mazy run. Ken is the top try scorer in the Heineken Cup so far, so Ulster had better have their defence sorted.

And it is their experience that should be able to quell the Saints’ attacking threat – Ulster’s back line has four Ireland internationals, a Springbok and an ex-Ireland U20 captain in it. If you want experience, look no further. Andrew Trimble won the battle over Craig Gilroy to take the 11 shirt, but knows that if he messes up, the young understudy will be ready to take over.

On the topic of the backs – congratulations to Tommy Bowe as well who wins his 50^th Heineken Cup cap – it will be his 25^th for Ulster, to add to 25 won for the Ospreys.

Ruan Pienaar, Jared Payne and Paddy Wallace also return after breaks last week to form what many would say is Ulster’s strongest team (minus Stephen Ferris). It is fair to say that Ulster will have no excuses if they lose – it is their strongest team on a 12-match unbeaten streak. I’m not saying this is a guaranteed win, not at all, but what I am saying is that Ulster cannot come away from the game making excuses for losing.

That is what Heineken Cup rugby is all about. Two full strength sides taking each other on in two do-or-die matches, and you would back the team that gets the most points out of the two games to take top spot in the pool. It is up to Ulster to make sure that the Saints get nothing from these two games to take a bit of pressure off the matches in January against Glasgow and Castres. Then they will be in complete control of the pool.

This is, without any doubt whatsoever, the biggest test Ulster have faced so far. It will take all their strength, will and tactics to pass this test, and if they do, they will have well and truly earned their stripes. Of course I’m backing them to do it! Prediction – Ulster by 4!

Friday 7^th December, 20:00

Franklin’s Gardens
Live on Sky Sports 2 (HD & 3D)

NORTHAMPTON

15. Ben Foden, 14. Ken Pisi, 13. George Pisi, 12. Dom Waldouck, 11. Tom Elliott, 10. Ryan Lamb, 9. Martin Roberts; 1. Soane Tonga’uiha, 2. Dylan Hartley (c), 3. Brian Mujati, 4. Samu Manoa, 5. Courtney Lawes, 6. Calum Clark, 7. Tom Wood, 8. GJ van Velze.

16. Mike Haywood, 17. Alex Waller, 18. Paul Doran-Jones, 19. Mark Sorenson, 20. Phil Dowson, 21. Lee Dickson, 22. Stephen Myler, 23. Tom May.

ULSTER

15. Jared Payne, 14. Tommy Bowe, 13. Darren Cave, 12. Paddy Wallace, 11. Andrew Trimble, 10. Paddy Jackson, 9. Ruan Pienaar; 1. Tom Court, 2. Rory Best, 3. John Afoa, 4. Johann Muller (c), 5. Dan Tuohy, 6. Iain Henderson, 7. Chris Henry, 8. Roger Wilson.

16. Nigel Brady, 17. Callum Black, 18. Ricky Lutton, 19. Robbie Diack, 20. Nick Williams, 21. Paul Marshall, 22. Luke Marshall, 23. Craig Gilroy.

Referee: Jerome Garces (Fra)

Assistant referees: Patrick Pechambert (Fra), Sebastien Cloute (Fra)
TMO: Laurent Valin (Fra)

Around the grounds – Europe version

There are some big games this weekend – how will they go? Check it out…

Glasgow v Castres – Home win
Connacht v Biarritz – Away win
Scarlets v Exeter – Home win
Toulouse v Ospreys – Home win
Zebre v Harlequins – Away win (TBP)
Sale v Toulon – Away win
Munster v Saracens – Away win
Racing Metro v Edinburgh – Home win
Cardiff v Montpellier – Home win
Leicester v Treviso – Home win (TBP)
Clermont v Leinster – Home win

ULSTER ARE A-HEAD OF THE PRINCIPALITY

As Heineken Cup rugby looms large once more on the horizon, there’s just enough time to look back on Ulster’s twelfth straight win of the season – this time in Llanelli.

It is also a new ‘record’ for the Ulstermen – this is the first time they have won all four games away in Wales. And with those four wins come eighteen vital points in the PRO12 race, one which is moving very much in Ulster’s favour. With that latest win, they push nine points clear at the top of the table.

But even so, it wasn’t completely convincing on Sunday…

Rain in Wales? Never!

Yes, the weather played its part. Big style. Handling errors were at the fore and the conditions under foot were absolutely terrible. It descended into a battle at the breakdown and Ulster just about did enough to see off their opposition.

Not that the Scarlets did much though. They were just as bad as Ulster were – and then a degree worse. The number of handling errors they made combined with their weak scrum were what eventually lost them the game.

But Ulster kept them in the game by not driving home their advantage. In the first half they had most of the possession, and certainly the lion’s share of territory, yet only went in at half-time ten points to the good. It would have actually only been three if not for Andrew Trimble’s intercept try.

Speaking of the Coleraine winger, the game was touted as being the ‘battle’ between him and Craig Gilroy for the starting berth against Northampton. However, it never really transpired to be that after Gilroy came off at half-time. Take from that what you will, but it seems likely that Mark Anscombe will stick with the status quo and go with Tommy Bowe and Trimble for Friday’s game.

Instead, step up Callum Black at tight-head prop. Despite Tom Court being released from Ireland duty early, Black retained his starting place and sent out a statement of intent to Anscombe – he wants to start for Ulster. And he couldn’t have sent out a better statement at that. His scrummaging was dynamic, shoving the Scarlets’ Springbok loose-head Jacobie Adriaanse back every single time. Even just to emphasise what an impact the American had, when he came off, Ulster’s dominant scrum faltered.

If that hasn’t caught Anscombe’s eye, I don’t know what will. The American-born English-raised Irish-qualified prop could well start on Friday.

Elsewhere in the team there were plenty of other excellent stand out performers that put their hands up for Heineken Cup selection. After having a torrid time in Milan against Treviso, Rob Herring found his form once again with some great work on the ground along with some solid line-out throws. Similar to Black, whenever he came off, the line-outs faltered, but that may be down to the ‘rustiness’ of Rory Best who was only back from injury on Sunday.

Paul Marshall once again had a good game at scrum-half, although it seems very unlikely he will displace Ruan Pienaar for such a crucial game. Luke Marshall showed his incredible potential at inside centre in yet another consistent performance, and there are calls for him to start ahead of Paddy Wallace.

But back to the match, and even though it was a victory for Ulster, it will feel like a defeat to them. With the team they had available to them, the result wasn’t what everybody expected (although the weather probably had something to do with that). Letting their league rivals away with what seemed to be an undeserved losing bonus point will be something that will annoy them too.

The team performance wasn’t what Mark Anscombe was expecting either. It was a very lethargic performance, dominated by up-n-unders and forward drives. In a match where Ulster possessed an exciting backline, they never got a chance to impress, because they never got meaningful ball. Anscombe himself said afterwards that, “Nothing we did tonight will cause Northampton to fear.”

He’s got that spot on. Ulster have a lot to work on in the three days they have before they travel to England, or they will return to Belfast with their unbeaten run in tatters. That is something that every Ulster fan will not want.

A win’s a win though. Ulster are now ten from ten in the league, twelve from twelve in all competitions and are looking comfortable with a nine point lead in the PRO12. However, their last three performances would suggest that their lead isn’t as comfortable as it seems. But is unbeaten at Christmas a possibility?

You bet.

Just a drop of Heineken

Rounds 3 and 4 of rugby’s greatest competition return this weekend, and there’s just enough room to give a very quick prelude to what we can see on Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

After the main event on Friday (!) there is one match that catches the eye of every rugby fan – a repeat of last season’s semi-final between Clermont Auvergne and Leinster. It should be a cracking game in Montferrand, and it’s impossible to tell which way it will go.

Meanwhile, back in Ireland, Munster take on the mighty Saracens who are in impeccable form. It’s hard to see past an away win for this match considering Munster’s lack of form, but it should still be a good game.

And finally, there is a mouthwatering clash in southern France on Saturday when the rugby giants Toulouse host PRO12 champions the Ospreys. Toulouse are also in great form in the Top14, but England’s win over the All Blacks last Sunday would prove that the form book can count for nothing in many cases.

Roll on the weekend!

TOP OF THE TABLE TUSSLE

Ulster have never won all four games in Wales. You have to go back to the 2005-06 season for their most successful year, when they won three and drew one of their games, notching up an impressive fifteen league points away from home.

However, crucially, the one draw was against – you’ve guessed it – this weekend’s opponents, the Scarlets.

But things were very different in 2006. Back then, the Scarlets played their matches in Llanelli at the now demolished Stradey Park. And they weren’t even called the Scarlets at that point; instead they were named the Llanelli Scarlets.

The match itself was a dire affair, played in terrible and conditions, and was a low scoring game. Two tries scored by Tommy Bowe and Andrew Maxwell gave Ulster a 12-0 lead after just 23 minutes, but they quickly surrendered that lead and were held to a 12-12 draw. It meant that Ulster had to win in Swansea the next weekend against the Ospreys to clinch the title, and it also ruined any hope of a perfect sweep in Wales.

This weekend, Ulster will be hoping the Scarlets don’t do the same…

Red Dragon vs. Red Hand

A very interesting stat for you this weekend – none of the Scarlets’ starting 15 have been capped for their country. Ulster have 6, and another 4 on the bench.

The game is a very interesting one as well as it may well decide how Ulster head into the rest of December. A victory of any kind will put Ulster in the clear – anywhere between eight to eleven points clear in the league as a matter of fact. A defeat will be the complete opposite however. They will take just a slim league lead into the tricky Christmas interprovincials against Leinster and Munster, and will have to face Northampton in the Heineken Cup having had the bombshell of losing their first game.

The Italian games count for nothing now. Ulster are back to as full strength as possible and will be thanking their lucky stars that they are still an undefeated side – and they will still want that to be true by the end of the weekend. If they go to Llanelli with the right mindset and the players play to their full potential then that should be enough.

There’s a saying, “Don’t count your chickens before they’ve hatched.” Replace ‘chickens’ with ‘points’ and ‘hatched’ with ‘been won’ and you have the scenario for Ulster this weekend.

“Don’t count your points before they’ve been won.”

A lot of people are saying this game should be a walk in the park. Undefeated Ulster with their full side back take on a Scarlets side minus a dozen players due to international call-ups – the result should be in no doubt. But let me assure you now, that will not be the case. You only have to go back to last Sunday to see just what this Scarlets side is capable of – beating the mighty Munster at Musgrave Park.

In atrocious conditions, ‘The Fever’ (as they’re affectionately nicknamed by their fans) forced their way to a famous 13-6 victory in Cork – one which they will remember for a long time. Not only did that keep them in touch with Ulster at the top of the table, it sent out a message to the rest of the league. The Scarlets are not to be messed with.

And Mark Anscombe will have to tell his team that this Sunday. If any of the Ulster players think it is a case of just turning up, then they will be in for a tough afternoon. Instead, they will have to draw on their experience and talent to see off a spirited and resilient opposition.

The return of Johann Muller and Rory Best could not have been timed better. The week before the Heineken Cup, they will both get crucial time ahead of the Northampton matches. Their leadership skills won’t go amiss either – it’s something Ulster seem to have been lacking the last few weeks.

The scrum is where the game will be won. Last weekend, the Scarlets front row pulverised their Munster opponents and it will be up to Callum Black, Rob Herring and John Afoa to ensure that they are not their second victims. Anscombe’s selection of Black probably indicates that the Ulster management realise the threat of the scrum as they may consider the 26-year old to be a marginally better ‘scrummager’ than Court.

Tomorrow’s game will also be a chance for Anscombe to decide whether he wants to go with Andrew Trimble or Craig Gilroy for the Heineken Cup double-header. Over the last month both have proved themselves to be brilliant players, and many people would say Gilroy is now edging ahead in the race for selection, now that he has superseded his provincial team-mate in the Ireland set-up. Whoever plays better tomorrow could play themselves into the 11 shirt for Friday.

This is a banana skin match, make no mistake. On paper it would look to be a five-pointer for Ulster. On the pitch, and with the poor weather predicted, it could be a completely different story. I still think Ulster will win. Not with the bonus point though. Prediction – Ulster by 9.

At Parc y Scarlets, Sunday 2^nd November, 4pm

Live on RTE TWO, S4/C and BBC2 NI

SCARLETS: 15. Dan Newton, 14. Kristian Phillips, 13. Gareth Maule, 12. Gareth Owen, 11. Andy Fenby, 10. Aled Thomas, 9. Gareth Davies; 1. Phil John, 2. Emyr Phillips, 3. Jacobie Adriaanse, 4. Johan Snyman, 5. Richard Kelly, 6. George Earle, 7. Johnathan Edwards (c), 8. Keiran Murphy.

16. Kirby Myhill, 17. Shaun Hopkins, 18. Deacon Manu, 19. Tomas Vallejos, 20. Craig Price, 21. Aled Davies, 22. Adam Warren, 23. Nick Reynolds.

ULSTER: 15. Peter Nelson, 14. Andrew Trimble, 13. Darren Cave, 12. Luke Marshall, 11. Craig Gilroy, 10. Paddy Jackson, 9. Paul Marshall; 1. Callum Black, 2. Rob Herring, 3. John Afoa, 4. Johann Muller (c), 5. Neil McComb, 6. Iain Henderson, 7. Robbie Diack, 8. Roger Wilson.

16. Rory Best, 17. Tom Court, 18. Ricky Lutton, 19. Dan Tuohy, 20. Mike McComish, 21. Michael Heaney, 22. Niall O’Connor, 23. Tommy Bowe.

Referee: Peter Fitzgibbon (IRFU)

Assistants: James Jones, Chris Williams (both WRU)
TMO: Nigel Whitehouse (WRU)
Citing commissioner: Aurwell Morgan (WRU)

Around the grounds

After the Ospreys’ success last night, it is a big weekend in Celtic rugby for Ulster…
Connacht vs. Edinburgh – Away win
Treviso vs. Dragons – Home win
Leinster vs. Zebre – Home win (TBP)
Munster vs. Glasgow – Home win