So in that vein, enjoy the 2014 Hound on the
Hill Six Nations preview!
ENGLAND
Captain: Chris Robshaw
Coach: Stuart LancasterStadium: Twickenham Stadium, 82,000
Last season: 2nd
I’ve been impressed with England. Forget the
Saxons defeat last weekend, I watched the end of the game and but for Freddie
Burns’ insane throw into touch at the death, it may have been a different
result. I like what Stuart Lancaster is doing at Twickenham, he’s
revolutionised a good side under Martin Johnson, and turned them into a great
side. In my opinion they were the rightful winners of the Six Nations last
season, they simply couldn’t convert their dominance into that final win at the
Millennium Stadium.
This
season I think they’ll go one step further. True they’re missing Manu Tuilagi
and Tom Croft, two of their biggest stars, but they have strength all over the
park and if they can keep all the rest of their stars free from injury, then I
think it will be difficult for anyone to stop them. Their scrum is stronger
than any of the others in the tournament, and if they can take the game to
sides up front then they can rely on Owen Farrell to kick the goals.
Unfortunately,
Farrell may be their biggest downfall too. I’ll admit, he’s a great fly-half
and you can count on him to kick 99/100 goals for you, while also probing the
corners. In open play however, he isn’t the best at getting a back line moving.
Farrell will do the basics for you, and while that may be what Lancaster is
looking for, it won’t win him tournaments, like Carter does for the All Blacks.
Bath fly-half George Ford has been named on the squad after a superb start to
the season, and if he can work his way onto the team, maybe shifting Farrell
out to 12 would be an option, then perhaps England would be a more potent
attacking threat.
Nevertheless,
I back the Englishmen to bring home the bacon. As much as I hate the English
“we’re better than you all” attitude, this season I fear it may be true. If
they win fair and square, we’ll hold our hands up and say well done, however
they are beatable if the backs don’t quite get going. But for me, this
tournament is the English’s to lose.
Key player: If you watched Saracens’ demolishing of
Connacht, you will know how good Alex
Goode can be, and if he’s given too much space, he can carve holes in the
opposition defences. His ability to switch with Mike Brown to wing will cause a
lot of problems as well.
Bolter: He started this season a long way behind
Deacon and Parling in the pecking order, but with injuries to key men, keep an
eye on Graham Kitchener at lock. He’s
been in fine form for the Tigers, and once he comes back from injury, he is a
powerful presence at the line-out.
Prediction: 1st
FRANCE
Captain: Pascal Pape
Coach: Phillipe Saint-AndreStadium: Stade de France, 81,500
Last season: 6th
France are so hard to predict because you
never know how they’re actually going to play. It’s widely believed that the
Six Nations after a Lions tour always belongs to France simply because the rest
of the nations are still on a Lions hangover, and while facts may be on the
French team’s side, they will have to work hard to keep that “record” going.
However, it’s fair to say that we haven’t seen such a weak French side in a
long time. For all their flair and skill, they lack the grit and determination
to win tough games, and naturally they will struggle to come away with wins
when their backs are up against the wall.
They
are beginning to struggle from a weak club system. Now that there is big money
being pumped into the French game, there are less and less French players
featuring for their local clubs, and instead they are forced to watch from the
sidelines as big name stars from the southern hemisphere start ahead of them.
Where one French name fell, another massive player would rise and take his
place in the past. Nowadays they are woefully exposed in several areas and do
not possess the fear factor of their predecessors. Saint-Andre has done the
best he can with limited resources, but he is being stretched beyond his
capabilities.
They
will beat most teams though. Their scrum will not be marched back very often,
and the back line, marshalled by Clermont centre Wesley Fofana, has the flair
and guile to run in tries aplenty over the next two months. I’m very interested
to see how the half-back pairing of Doussain and Tales goes for our Gallic
cousins – two players at the top of their game for their respective clubs, but
not yet proven at international level.
A
respectable finish is on the cards for the French. Can’t see them winning it
outright, although mind you, stranger things have happened in this competition.
They still have the same fault as their clubs – they are not as strong on the
road as at home, but if they can go into those away games with the right
attitude then perhaps the Lions record may go on…
Key player: It may seem like he’s been around for years,
but Louis Picamoles is just 27, and
is quickly reaching his fiftieth cap for France. He is one of those players
that others rally around for guidance, and he, along with Pape, will be crucial
to deciding France’s fate in this season’s tournament.
Bolter: Had he not been injured it would have been
Sofiane Guitoune, but instead I’ll go for Sebastien
Vahaamahina of Perpignan. A massive lad at 6ft 8, he doesn’t get beaten in
the air very often, and with only three locks in the squad, he’s one good
performance away from grabbing that coveted starting place in the team.
Prediction: 3rd
IRELAND
Captain: Paul O’Connell
Coach: Joe SchmidtStadium: AVIVA Stadium, 51,500
Last season: 5th
Ah Ireland. As much as I want to say
everything will be great and by this time in March we will have the Six Nations
wrapped up with a superb Grand Slam win, I can’t see that happening. National
expectations are at an all-time high after nearly defeating the All Blacks, and
I fear we will be desperately disappointed by how badly we will do. With the
World Cup coming up soon, this season should maybe be more of a focus on
performances rather than results, although a trophy in the cabinet would be a
very good way to boost confidence.
However,
there are still cobwebs to brush off from the Kidney era. The side is still too
old, especially if we are building for the World Cup next year, and we still
have no decent back-up to Brian O’Driscoll once he goes (unless Darren Cave is
reinstated as an option). Much like France, if Ireland lose a few players in
key positions (tighthead prop and openside flanker to name a few) then we will
be badly exposed against the best teams.
In
saying that, I think we’ll be exposed anyway. I can see why Schmidt would opt
to stick with what he knows and go with a Leinster-dominated team, and they are
still the best Irish side of course, but if he continues to have such a heavy
Leinster dominance then there will be little motivation for other players to
try and get on the team. If it works, then there won’t be too many complaints,
but there are underlying issues – the dominance of one province looks
incredibly poor on the outside.
But
for all the (or maybe more my) criticisms of the Irish national side, there are
some overwhelming strengths of course, and under Schmidt, the team does seem to
be showing a lot of promise. Certainly no other side can boast the sheer
tenacity that the Irish players show and the strong breakdown work that they
do. With a back row of O’Mahony, Henry and Heaslip, they will do a lot of
groundhog work on the ground. If they can force the penalties, then Sexton will
kick the points.
For
now, I think just an improvement would be expected from Ireland. Schmidt is
still easing his way into the job, and he’ll take a few wins and a respectable
finish in the table. If he can get a bit more familiarity with his players then
he will be in a great position in the build up to the World Cup next year.
Key player: I don’t think anyone will deny that Ireland’s
hopes rest on Jonathan Sexton firing
on all cylinders and staying fit. His form for Racing Metro is uninspiring to
say the least, but back with his Irish mates hopefully he can get back to his
form from his Leinster days and link up with Conor Murray again.
Bolter: With BOD going at the end of the season, the
outside centre shirt is up for grabs – look for Robbie Henshaw staking his claim to replace the legend by carrying
his Connacht form from one green shirt into another.
Prediction: 4th
ITALY
Captain: Sergio Parisse
Coach: Jacques BrunelStadium: Stadio Olimpico, 73,000
Last season: 4th
Fair dues to the Italians last season, they
exceeded everyone’s expectations and managed to finish fourth with wins over
Ireland and France. Jacques Brunel will be looking to improve on that: with
rugby largely overshadowed by the successful international football team, there
is now an opportunity for rugby to be presented on a larger stage to the
Italian public, especially with Treviso and Zebre beginning to find a foothold
in the Pro12 and Heineken Cup.
In
my opinion, their strength is their underdog status. Despite their obvious
improvements and slow rise up the IRB World Rankings, Italy are still
undoubtedly seen as the sixth team of the Six Nations, and only there to make
up the numbers. Although the majority of rugby fans now see that this is no
longer true, there are still a lot of people who think games against Italy are
foregone conclusions. If Italy can exploit the incorrect mindsets of sides, then
their improved side can cause many upsets.
But
they are the so-called sixth side for a reason – they blow hot and cold. If
they can get going they can take on the best in the world and give them a good
game. If they don’t show up, then they may find themselves on the wrong end of
a cricket scoreline. Much like the French, they don’t travel well compared to
the British Isles sides and with Martin Castrogiovanni coming to the end of his
career, their scrum is rather weak by comparison with the other five sides.
Italy will be bullied by stronger packs, and with a set of rather uninspiring
backs beyond out-half Luciano Orquera, it’s hard to see where the Italians will
score a lot of points.
Unless
they can take down Scotland, I can only see a sixth place no points scored
finish for the Italians. Look, as much as I like the Italians, they struggle to
keep up with the big teams unless they’re on the very top of their game, and
with a very old squad in rugby terms, what they don’t lack in experience, they
do in fresh new ideas. Brunel has his work cut out.
Key player: It would be hard to look past the man
mountain that is Martin Castrogiovanni.
The ex-Leicester, now Toulon man provides a punch in the front row and if he
lasts a full 80 minutes in a match then he will make the opposition pay with
some strong runs and some bone-crushing hits.
Bolter: Scotland were cursing their luck when they
missed on Tommy Allan for their squad
and Italy got him instead. Now christened Tommaso by his Italian brethren, the Perpignan
utility back can play in pretty much every position along the back line making
him a great option for the bench, or even starting, and luckily he has the
talent to boot.
Prediction: 6th
SCOTLAND
Captain: Kelly Brown
Coach: Scott JohnsonStadium: Murrayfield Stadium, 67,000
Last season: 3rd
For Scotland this is somewhat of a transition
year. With Scott Johnson being pushed aside and Vern Cotter taking over at the
end of the season, there is the opportunity for several players to stake their claims
to continue on in his set-up, while also sending Johnson out on a high. But
Scotland are still the lethargic, boring side that we all love to hate
unfortunately, and that nilled result against South Africa proved that Scotland
are still a step or two behind the best.
Cotter
shall be watching with interest because he has a lot of work to do. They don’t
have an established fly-half, they have an out of form hooker who is only in
the team due to a lack of decent replacements, and a passive back row compared
to the other teams in the Six Nations. And all these problems are what Johnson
must deal with now. There are too many issues for Scotland to deal with to
launch a considerable title bid, and an unfavourable draw may see them finish
bottom despite last season’s top half finish.
They
may benefit from an Italian side that are just a bit worse than Scotland are.
The Scottish backs are very talented too, with Matt Scott and Stuart Hogg
leading the attack. As long as Johnson can settle on who is his first choice
fly-half out of Ruaridh Jackson and Duncan Weir then his backs should be fine.
If the forwards can do their job then they will pose a few threats – Ireland
know rightly that the Scottish can be a difficult side to face if they are at
their best.
Scotland
do not possess the strength in depth or even the raw talent of the other sides
in the tournament, but should they win a few games early on then they could get
a head of steam up. They have the added incentive of giving Scott Johnson one
final hoorah before he makes way for Cotter, and that could be incentive enough
to spur them into action.
Key player: Scotland really rely on Greig Laidlaw to not only kick the goals, but more or less run the
show from scrum-half. The Edinburgh scrum-half maybe hasn’t been in the best of
form for the capital side, but if he can get his game going, then Scotland will
benefit greatly, and he can really influence a result.
Bolter: At just 19, Jonny Gray is already pushing into both the Glasgow and the
Scotland team, and but for his brother Richie, he could have more than just his
two caps already. He’s only been on the scene for a year and a half, but he’s
caused quite a stir already – he could cause one more and oust his brother from
his starting position internationally!
Prediction: 5th
WALES
Captain: Sam Warburton
Coach: Warren Gatland
Stadium: Millennium Stadium, 74,500
Last season: 1st
With Leigh Halfpenny departing to Toulon at
the end of the season, the horrible news for Welsh fans continue as their stars
continue to depart for sunnier shores. However, they do have the international
team to fall back on, boasting the majority of the Lions team that humiliated
the Australians over the summer, and they are still the defending Six Nations
champions – at least until the end of March anyway!
Wales
are probably the strongest side in the competition, regardless of what I’ve
said about England. With an all-Lions front row (or would have been but for
injury) of Jenkins, Hibbard and Adam Jones backed up by Alun-Wyn Jones and
likely James King from the second row, their scrum will be up there with the
best. Combine that with a lethal back three finishing combo of North, Cuthbert
and Halfpenny, along with Halfpenny’s ever-reliable kicking, you can see why
it’s so difficult to win against the Welsh.
But
it’s not impossible of course. Wales tend to choke in the big matches (last
season’s clash against England aside) as highlighted in the Autumn
Internationals, and should they lose Halfpenny’s kicking ability then suddenly
their ability to keep the scoreboard ticking over vanishes, leaving them rather
vulnerable. The weight of expectation will be firmly upon them as well –
they’ve won two Six Nations in a row, the pressure is on them to retain it for
a second year running. Difficult enough, but when your nation expects you to do
it to make up for the failings of the four regions, it makes the job even
harder.
They’ll
give it a very good go. Wales aren’t a side to give up without a fight, and
with the experience and belief they possess, I can’t see them finishing
anywhere other than the top two. In the end, it could all be down to the fact
that England have home advantage in the two teams’ match, otherwise we could be
looking at three on the bounce. Hey, we still could…
Key player: He was probably the first Welshman to leave
in the exodus, but George North still
plays a massive role in the success of Wales. His incredible ability to finish
from even small chances makes him one of the best wingers in the game today,
and Wales will hope he stays fit for the entire campaign – they need his
try-scoring nuance.
Bolter: With the fly-half role not yet nailed down
for Wales, the chance has arisen for Dan
Biggar to make the shirt his own. In a relatively poor season for the
Ospreys so far, he has been the one shining light, and if he can bring that
form onto the international stage then he could easily nail down a starting
position at the Millennium Stadium for the next few years.
Prediction: 2nd
