LOCK DOWN

Not for the first time this season, despite it being only three games old, an injury to a key player has taken the gloss of a good win for Ulster.

It’s become something of a recurring theme. Jared Payne was taken off early in Llanelli. Three-try Tuohy will need surgery on his arm after Friday night’s win. And although it didn’t happen in the same match, watching Ruan Pienaar be carried off for the Springboks against New Zealand the morning after a bonus point win over Zebre certainly lowered the mood in Belfast.

Les Kiss is facing something of a dilemma. True, Payne will probably return this week away to Zebre and the province still hold a sliver of belief that Pienaar will make it back in time for their trip to Welford Road, however the undeniable truth is that as the weeks pass Ulster look increasingly more vulnerable in several positions.

Certainly in the second row there is a serious cause for concern. With Tuohy gone for twelve weeks and Iain Henderson facing an even longer period on the sidelines due to hip surgery, the lock cupboard is worryingly bare, with only Franco van der Merwe, Lewis Stevenson and Neil McComb fit for service for the next twelve weeks at least. Beyond that Kiss and co. will have to delve into the Academy – a prospect that is looking more and more likely as the days pass.

Still, Friday night provided many reasons to be positive. While the interim head coach has yet to witness his side put in a complete performance, their ability to suffocate the Blues’ constant attacks as the match wore on was impressive, and they got their due reward as Ian Humphreys capitalised on Gareth Davies’ loose pass near the end of the game. Maybe a seventeen point win wasn’t a true reflection on how the game went, but it is a margin of victory that Ulster will happily take.

Even more pleasing was the platform created by the forwards, in particular the driving maul. Allen Clarke will undoubtedly be very happy to see his work during the week pay off as van der Merwe dominated the aerial battle and then let the rest of the pack do the hard work. Indeed, had Neil Paterson enforced his multiple warnings to Blues captain Matthew Rees then Cardiff should have been reduced to fourteen men, probably more than once.

Not that that mattered. What we saw from Ulster’s pack was a controlled and measured approach to the set piece and quite rightly they exerted a lot of pressure on the Blues front row. If Adam Jones was feeling confident lining up against the still-proving-himself Andrew Warwick, then the British & Irish Lion was to be badly mistaken as the Ballymena man shunted him backwards at a rate of knots. Joe Schmidt are you watching?

And of course, credit must go to his propping partner in Wiehahn Herbst who, as the weeks go by, continues to look like a very astute acquisition with another powerful performance in the tight. Although the bigger tests in the form of the powerful Leicester and star-studded Toulon packs are to come, at this stage of the season Warwick and Herbst look to be forming a very impressive front row trio along with Rory Best.

Where concern still lies is the ineffectiveness of the backs. For a back line that featured five Irish internationals, plus the more than likely to be capped Stuart Olding, they were found severely lacking, and instead had to rely on the barnstorming run of top try scorer Dan Tuohy (yes, you read that right) to force their way over the line.

Ironically it was the only back who seems the likeliest to end his career without a cap (and based on his performances so far that is a tragedy of sorts), Louis Ludik who looked the most threatening, as he has done all season. Always a danger to defenders with ball in hand, he seems to find the spaces and ghost through them with ease. Another strong performance from the former Agen man and he is certainly making a name for himself in Belfast.

Grant the backs a little bit of relief though, they were playing behind a fly-half who was playing his first game for four months and some ring rustiness was to be expected. Although for a first game back I don’t think too many will have any major issues with Jackson’s performance, especially his place kicking which was nearly exemplary and kept the scoreboard ticking over nicely.

Bottom line, job done in Cardiff and a solid fourth place after three games. With two potential banana skins in Wales safely navigated – if you’d call the heart-stopper in Llanelli just that – being two points behind early pace-setters the Ospreys is nothing to be sniffed at. That said, there’s always things to be looked at and a lot of work to do.

Work to do, both for the coaching staff, and the medical staff too.

West is Best (but not that West)

Great things come in small packages, or so the saying goes.

Take Connacht for example. Ireland’s forgotten fourth province have made one of their best starts to a Pro12 season in their history and based on their performances, it is fully deserved too. They comfortably saw off the Newport-Gwent Dragons in week one, provided a dramatic late comeback at Murrayfield a week later and on Friday night they claimed their first major scalp of the season: a 10-9 victory over provincial rivals Leinster.

As far as dream starts go, Pat Lam will be wishing he never wakes up from this one.

Sitting in a lofty third position with twelve points from a possible fifteen, things are looking up for Connacht. Granted, they maybe aren’t going to be challenging for silverware come the business end of the season, however they will be delighted with the positive strides they have made in September and will head into October hoping to push on and solidify their position in the top six of the league.

But even the most diehard of the Clan will admit that there is a lot of rugby to be played, and tougher opposition to face, starting with this Friday’s trip to the Glasgow Warriors, who are looking as strong as ever. A 33-13 triumph over the Newport-Gwent Dragons at Rodney Parade shows that they are determined to go one step further this season than they did last time out.

If anyone thought Gregor Townsend’s side were going to suffer from second-season syndrome then they were badly mistaken. So far the Scots have flattened all before them, including exacting their revenge on Leinster for last season’s final defeat. With Townsend at the helm and the strength in depth that the Warriors have the ability to call upon, you’d be a brave man to bet against them to be in the top four for a third consecutive season.

And spare a thought for the Ospreys who currently top the table.

Amassing 62 points against any opposition is nothing to be sniffed at, and to do so in the manner that they did against Edinburgh on Sunday was extremely impressive. With a sense of control and an attacking prowess that very much resembled that of the All Blacks, the men of Swansea imposed themselves on their visitors and in the end the result could have been similar to a cricket score.

If anybody thought that they would be negatively affected by losing several players over the summer, then those fears have been dispelled early on, with the Ospreys seizing early control of the Pro12. Still, much like Connacht, their start hasn’t exactly been the most taxing and their biggest tests are still to come with a trip to Thomond Park on Saturday night looming large.

Nevertheless, the Ospreys still lead the Welsh charge, and the way in the Pro12 so far.

CONCERNING COMPARISONS

Once again I find myself typing up a blog post following another day of Pro12 rugby on Sky Sports in a less than satisfied manner. This time though, it is not at the television company.

Rather, having returned home late in the afternoon, I discovered that Leinster had handily disposed of the Scarlets by a rather a commanding scoreline of 42-12, and this is what incensed me. Now I know full well that Leinster at the best of times can play a thoroughly irresistible brand of rugby with flowing attacking moves and a rigid defensive structure, backed up a domineering forward pack, but even so to see them dismantle the side that only a week previous should have put Ulster to the sword gave me a moment of pause.

Again, nothing against Leinster who, I am reliably informed, played very well on Saturday and deserved the five points they walked away from the RDS with, yet it does belittle our draw at the Parc y Scarlets massively. We struggled just to get three points – Leinster cruised to five. The difference between us and our top four rivals is very evident at the moment, even in how we played on Friday night.

You may think I’m overreacting, and I possibly am, but even at this early stage there are distinctions being made between the top sides, and those who will ultimately be on the outside looking in. So far, Ulster look very much like the latter. A backs to the wall salvaged draw at the Scarlets and a thoroughly unconvincing win against Zebre at home, bonus point or not, has done nothing to dispel the fears of rugby followers nationwide that the province are slowly on the slide following the difficulties of the summer months.

Which brings me nicely onto Friday night’s laboured victory at the Kingspan. For me it is worth ignoring the various negatives you could pull from Ulster’s scrappy play, regardless of how many there were, and instead focus on the few shining lights that emerged from the darkness around Belfast with which we shall head to Cardiff basing our optimism upon.

One of those shining lights is what a signing we have found in Louis Ludik. I gave him my man of the match for his brand of stylish running rugby and his ability to always manage to make yards with ball in hand, and for a player that was named amongst the substitutes that is a very impressive feat. He brings an attacking threat into the line whether he is utilised at outside centre or at full-back, and on current form you cannot justify dropping him from the starting XV. Where he plays, however, is another question entirely.

The likely position is full-back, his self-professed preferred position, considering the blazers in Dublin see Jared Payne as the successor to BOD at outside centre and that while he remains fit he will probably have the 13 jersey all to himself, however should Payne continue to struggle in the centre, there is the possibility of him being shifted to the back three once more – a position many would feel he excels in – with Ludik now having to find a new place in the team, with a straight switch to the centre a distinct possibility also.

Whatever the decision made with the backs, an area where Ulster have an abundance of riches across the line, it is relieving to see that another area of Ulster’s game that was superb on Friday night was the set piece. A front row of Warwick, Best and Herbst pulled together and tore apart their opposite numbers in the scrum and provided Ulster with the required platform to go on and get the four tries required – remember it was two monumental shoves that rewarded the hosts with their first and fourth tries of the night, the first of which was won against the head too.

Admittedly the opposition maybe was not the best to adequately judge against, especially considering Rory Best, a British & Irish Lion, was up against Oliviero Fabiani who was making his first competitive start for the Italians. Nevertheless it was very pleasing to see the youth of Andrew Warwick excelling at a Pro12 level, a home-grown player whom many in Ulster circles have high hopes for, and the prolific scrummaging ability of Wiehahn Herbst seems to suggest that the replacement for John Afoa may prove to be a very handy addition to the Ulster roster.

Still, maybe it is slightly naïve to overlook the fact that we had nine internationals on the field and yet we still made heavy going of seeing that fourth try cross the line, and in the end it took a yellow card for Ricky Andrew to actually shock us into action, whenever in truth the Leinsters and Glasgows of this world would have put that Zebre side to the sword before the referee had time to blow for half-time. For years we have said we want to be at that level and yet here we are still comparing ourselves to them.

Complaining about a five try bonus point win is probably rather pernickety, but it’s only by pushing ourselves to the top level that we will eventually break that trophyless streak that now stretches back nine seasons. Whatever you may have read about Les Kiss leaving this week and however much we expect from the Ulstermen, make no doubt that this side is just as dedicated as ever and will push to the limits to succeed on both fronts this season. And that dedication continues at the Cardiff Arms Park this Friday.

Marshalling the troops

So our worst fears have finally been realised, not that his fortuitous run was without its bumps and scrapes, but we will now be facing life without Ruan Pienaar for at least four weeks, if not more, should his injury be in the latter bracket of six weeks, showing that our worst fears can actually be added upon, as melodramatic as that sounds.

What does this mean for Ulster? Sadly, a hell of a lot as Pienaar is one of those players you simply don’t “replace” in a team. Like Sean O’Brien for Leinster or Conor Murray for Munster, you have your stand-in guys and they can do a job for you if you let them. However, they will not replicate their superior’s playing ability every week, nor will they provide the flashes of brilliance that those superiors do either.

Now we see where Paul Marshall stands in accordance with Pienaar. For years we have decreed that St. Ruan is irreplaceable in the Ulster line-up, but in fairness to his understudies, he actually hasn’t been absent enough for that to be tested. Certainly when Pienaar came off against Saracens last season, his replacement, Marshall, was more than capable to fill his boots in the second half, and this season so far the understudy has looked lively and at the same time a lot more composed than he has in previous years.

But this is a major step up for a player who has always been the second choice at Ulster, especially considering he is now in line to start at Welford Road and against Toulon at the Kingspan a week later, and is likely to be facing off against two of the best in the trade in Ben Youngs and Sebastien Tillous-Borde. If that isn’t a test of his ability at this level then I don’t know what is.

This is the time for Marshall to show that his Springbok counterpart has a real rival for his spot at Ulster and if he can continue how he has started this season then I for one feel that Pienaar may come back with a lot to think about beyond the injury. That said, there are a lot of games to come between now and the beginning of the Champions Cup, so let’s not get ahead of ourselves.

Nevertheless, with a point to prove and a starting berth to play for, we may be in for something special from Marshall.

IS EVERYTHING SKY HIGH?

I found myself at something of a loss of words as I watched Sky Sports’ Rugby Club on Friday night before the Munster v Edinburgh game on TG4 (which was a cracker by the way).

As this is Sky’s maiden season of Pro12 coverage, something which was made abundantly clear over the course of the weekend, I can grant them a little bit of leeway regarding their naivety toward the Pro12, but I gaped with incredulity as the various pundits revealed their predictions for how the season would pan out. Take nothing away from their coverage which was professional and of top quality standard throughout, but these predictions were wild to say the least.

The sheer ineptitude of the pundits who they asked to provide their top four was astounding, especially since they are supposedly experts in their field. The vast majority of them had the Cardiff Blues in their top four based purely on their summer signings, while Will Greenwood went as far as to say that the Newport-Gwent Dragons would finish in fourth due to the lack of players that would head away during international breaks, as if the other sides would not be able to cope with a few missing front line players.

I mean no disrespect whatsoever to the Blues or the Dragons, the former of whom could very easily compete for silverware this season, particularly based on their dismissal of a stubborn Zebre side at the weekend, but I think the majority of Pro12 fans would share my scepticism at these bold and wild predictions. Instead we had to look to Pro12 punditry “regulars” in Scott Hastings, Shane Horgan and Alan Quinlan, who all predicted the same top four as last season – a more likely punt than a Welsh region breaking into the play-offs.

In my opinion this shows a complete disregard of respect for the Pro12 as a league that the experts covering it are making these wild stabs at the top four. Indeed, only Glasgow and Leinster featured in every prediction, and I’m willing to bet that that is purely down to the fact they contested last season’s final, while Munster made many appearances also, although we all know how much the pundits love them, regardless of how they do.

Instead you have to look no further than the Parc y Scarlets on Saturday to see two sides who will be there or thereabouts when it comes to May next year. Two sides locked horns with a bullish attitude and both came away with three points from a frenetic, fast-paced, furious battle that left everybody stunned as to just how Ulster managed to snatch a draw from the jaws of defeat. The phrase “backs up against the wall” doesn’t even do it justice – Ulster had been bruised and battered for the first thirty minutes of the second half and yet, remarkably, they managed to find the will and belief to leave Llanelli with three very valuable points to their name.

If Sky’s executives had to make do with the Pro12 following BT Sport’s swoop for the Aviva Premiership, they will have been licking their lips following the high scoring draw to begin their coverage and then the exciting end to Glasgow v Leinster straight afterwards. As far as the two games they could have chosen to launch their Pro12 showcase went, they couldn’t possibly have chosen two better games.

I won’t go into the details of Ulster’s draw this week, although I will make a quick note on the shortcomings of the officials, and for both teams may I add. Liam Williams can count himself extremely unlucky to have picked up his third red card in his last five games considering, while he did knock the ball on, it hardly looked like he did it deliberately, while Louis Ludik may well be cursing his luck following yesterday’s video review when he sees what his try was disallowed for. Any contact Michael Allen did make with a covering defender was minimal at best.

The standard of officiating in the Pro12 has declined rapidly and, while we can still boast probably the world’s best referee in Nigel Owens, the quality below that is not even close to the high bar he has set, and we saw that again on Saturday. Indeed, had the officials checked with the TMO for that final knock on that ended the game (as they did for every other close decision) Ulster may well have had a penalty to win the match and take all five points. That is if Peter Fitzgibbon had indeed left the TMO to make his own decision instead of putting it upon himself.

Whatever you thought of Sky’s coverage, which I thought was perfect for the game itself but poor in the build up, there is no doubt that the exposure that the broadcaster will bring to the league will be crucial in guaranteeing more sponsors and increasing the revenue being brought into the league. And if the two opening matches are anything to go by then we are in for some incredible rugby over the course of the 2014-15 season.

Everyone loves to put on a show for the cameras, don’t they?

GUINNESS PRO12 PREVIEW

BENETTON TREVISO

Head Coach: Umberto Casellato

Stadium: Stadio di Monigo, Treviso
Captain: Antonio Pavanello
Star Man: Michele Campagnaro

Treviso really haven’t lived up to the hype that they created around themselves a couple of years ago when they really threatened the top four of the Pro12. Last year they fell to a dismal 11^th place, only just holding off the challenge of minnows Zebre while losing head coach Franco Smith too. Now they enter 2014/15 having lost a sizable amount of their front line stars to big European teams knowing that they have a massive task to simply stay ahead of their Italian rivals. Can they remind the rugby community that Italian sides can compete at the highest level? Common sense and the amount of players they’ve lost would dictate not, but a word of warning: never write off the Leoni and the awkward away trip that the Stadio di Monigo poses.

CARDIFF BLUES

Head Coach: Mark Hammett

Stadium: BT Sport Cardiff Arms Park, Cardiff
Captain: Matthew Rees
Star Man: Alex Cuthbert

Of all the teams in the Pro12, the word “disappointment” springs to mind when you think of the Cardiff Blues. No offence to any fans of the Blues that read this but even they will agree that ever since they reached the Heineken Cup semi-final in 2009, their form both domestically and in Europe hasn’t been good enough. Not that they haven’t tried though, the Blues can cause a lot of problems when in full stride, but when you think of the stars they’ve had at their disposal over the past few seasons their exploits should’ve been much greater. Stealing Adam Jones from the Ospreys and bringing in Mark Hammett as Director of Rugby will help their plight dramatically, but not enough for them to mount a serious challenge to the top sides.

CONNACHT RUGBY

Head Coach: Pat Lam

Stadium: Galway Sportsground, Galway
Captain: John Muldoon
Star Man: Mils Muliaina

Pat Lam was brought in to Galway to try and convince the IRFU that Connacht are not just the fourth province in Ireland anymore and that they deserve equal standing. Based on how his debut season went, he has a lot to improve upon this campaign. He’s used his contacts well and managed to convince ex-All Blacks star Mils Muliaina that the Sportsground is where he should spend his twilight years, but losing the experience of Dan Parks at fly-half is a worry for an inexperienced squad that will rely heavily on their stars in Kieran Marmion and Robbie Henshaw. A low finish is likely to be repeated this season, although don’t rule out a shock result or two at the Sportsground on a wet and windy Friday night.

EDINBURGH RUGBY

Head Coach: Alan Solomons

Stadium: BT Murrayfield, Edinburgh
Captain: TBD
Star Man: Tim Visser

Edinburgh are one of the hardest sides in the Pro12 to work out, and I’ll be honest, writing this preview is the trickiest of the twelve. Probably the best side of the bottom six teams in the Pro12, this year is the first where the formerly named Gunners will sense that they have a realistic chance to break into the top six, especially since they have managed to hold onto all of their front line players while strengthening their squad over the summer too. If they can make Murrayfield into a true fortress, their pack can do a lot of damage, while the ever present threat of Tim Visser is enough to strike fear into any defender.

GLASGOW WARRIORS

Head Coach: Gregor Townsend

Stadium: Scotstoun Stadium, Glasgow
Captain: Alastair Kellock
Star Man: Sean Maitland

Surprisingly, I reckon if you ask many Glasgow fans what they think of last season then they’d be disappointed. And I would share that disappointment – the Warriors were the most consistent team in the league by a long way and toward the end of the season some of the rugby they played was simply irresistible, they simply fell at the final hurdle due to a lack of experience at the highest level. This year they have learned vital lessons, managed to strengthen an already star-studded squad and are hungry for revenge. And based on those things, plus a fully fit and unpredictable Niko Matawalu thrown into the mix, this could really be their year.

LEINSTER RUGBY

Head Coach: Matt O’Connor

Stadium: RDS Arena, Dublin
Captain: Jamie Heaslip
Star Man: Sean O’Brien

Defending champions, most successful side in the competition, anybody else want to throw a few more superlatives at Leinster? Even when they had lost Joe Schmidt, Jonny Sexton and Isa Nacewa ahead of last season they still managed to dig deep and find the victory yet again, and it is that winning mentality that still makes them the best side in the Pro12. That title is going to be strongly disputed this season and having lost Brian O’Driscoll they will be severely wanting in the centre department. Nevertheless, you’ll find very few teams will triumph over the Boys in Blue this year and it will take a massive effort from any team to overcome the Dubliners’ destructive front five.

MUNSTER RUGBY

Head Coach: Anthony Foley

Stadium: Thomond Park, Limerick/Musgrave Park, Cork
Captain: Peter O’Mahony
Star Man: Simon Zebo

Last season we saw real glimpses of the Munster of old, yet even the die-hard Munster fans will admit that they are nowhere near the level that they used to be. Over the summer head coach Rob Penney was ousted and replacing him is fans’ favourite Anthony “Axel” Foley who will attempt to instil that former mentality at Thomond Park, but that is easier said than done. While Munster now have a younger group of players coming through who are showing real promise, they are still a few years away from the real deal and unless Foley can really invigorate their rather limp back line then it will be another trophyless season in the south of Ireland.

NEWPORT-GWENT DRAGONS

Head Coach: Lyn Jones

Stadium: Rodney Parade, Newport
Captain: Lee Byrne
Star Man: Taulupe Faletau

Keeping hold of Taulupe Faletau was integral to the success of the Dragons, and not only did Lyn Jones manage to do that, but he went one step further and also convinced winger Aled Brew and full-back Lee Byrne that Rodney Parade was the place for them to come to this season – two fantastic acquisitions. Although their returns won’t necessarily mean a play-off place is in the offing for the region, expect them to be a lot more competitive this season and pull away from the two Italians at the bottom of the table. That is, if their trio of stars can stay injury free…

OSPREYS

Head Coach: Steve Tandy

Stadium: Liberty Stadium, Swansea
Captain: Alun Wyn Jones
Star Man: Justin Tipuric

No point in sugar coating it, 2013/14 was nothing short of a failure for the Ospreys. No play-off match for them in the Pro12 and an early exit from Europe reflected a fall from grace for the Swansea-based region and this season is fully motivated by a need for a return to the top table of Celtic rugby. Dan Biggar will provide the reliability required from behind the pack while Alun Wyn Jones will act as the figurehead in the scrum. Richard Hibbard’s departure will severely weaken their scrum however and unless a few younger players step up, it may be another difficult year for them.

SCARLETS

Head Coach: Wayne Pivac

Stadium: Parc y Scarlets, Llanelli
Captain: Ken Owens
Star Man: Rhys Priestland

The Scarlets have always been up and around the play-off places yet they very rarely make them. This season they’ve made positive steps in trying to make sure they are no longer ‘possibles’ and instead are ‘probables’ by bringing in Wayne Pivac as head coach, while securing the return of Regan King from Clermont and the capture of Michael Tagicakibau on the wing. The loss of Jonathan Davies is a worrying point for the Scarlets and unless their scrum can make more of an impact in the big games then they will continue to be on the outside looking in.

ULSTER RUGBY

Head Coach: Les Kiss

Stadium: Kingspan Stadium, Belfast
Captain: Rory Best
Star Man: Ruan Pienaar

The nearly men of rugby in the past few years, last season was a particularly difficult one for the Ulstermen and it culminated in head coach Mark Anscombe losing his job over the course of a very turbulent summer in Belfast. Also departing are Director of Rugby David Humphreys, Johann Muller, Stephen Ferris and John Afoa leaving a sizable gap in the Ulster squad. However, with Ireland assistant coach Les Kiss stepping in as head coach on an interim basis and the signings of Franco van der Merwe and Wiehahn Herbst, things may not be so bad. However, with so many changes, this may simply be a transitional year for the White Knights.

ZEBRE

Head Coach: Andrea Cavinato

Stadium: Stadio XXV Aprille, Parma
Captain: Gonzalo Garcia
Star Man: Mauro Bergamasco

Zebre are the side everyone wants to do well – except when they’re playing against their side! Since they took over from Aironi a couple of seasons ago, Zebre have slowly improved, notching up several victories and giving several teams a run for their money in some tight matches. However, it has been a rather quiet off-season in Parma and without any significant investment into the team, this season looks doomed to be just as unsuccessful as the previous few. A basement battle with Treviso looks the most likely outcome yet again for Zebre, yet if they can find their feet early on then maybe more could be on the cards…

Adam’s prediction:

1.       Glasgow Warriors

2.       Leinster Rugby

3.       Ulster Rugby

4.       Munster Rugby

5.       Ospreys

6.       Scarlets

7.       Edinburgh Rugby

8.       Cardiff Blues

9.       Newport-Gwent Dragons

10.   Connacht Rugby

11.   Benetton Treviso

12.   Zebre