PROBLEMS TO SOLVE

I don’t think I’ve had a more painful day of rugby viewing than Sunday.

We had more than enough in our team to beat Treviso and considering they had been decimated the week before at the Liberty Stadium it just highlights what a pathetic performance it was from us. In a game where a bonus point was very much on offer, we put in one of our worst performances of the season and ended up limping over the finish line with a two point margin seeing us home.

While I don’t think the loss means we have any severe problems, it does highlight some very interesting ones. Mainly our loosehead situation which seems to be somewhat up in the air. I’ve been questioning this for a while now: why did we start Callum Black in our biggest game of the season against Leicester, and yet start Tom Court in the next two Pro12 games? And on Sunday, Court was badly shown up by Fernandez-Rouyet yet whenever Black came on the scrum was solid.

It makes me wonder who our best loosehead is. Black has been one of our most improved performers this season and I would start him this week against the Dragons due to Court’s perceived failings on Sunday. It’s not up to me though, and I just wonder what Mark Anscombe sees in Court to keep starting him. He appears to be struggling with the new scrummaging laws and doesn’t have the same impact he used to. It will be interesting to see how long Anscombe sticks with him.

This week I’d also give a start to Rory Scholes on the wing. On Sunday he came on in the fiftieth minute and was our best back within about five minutes with a strong burst near the line and then a jinking run up the touchline from a kick-off too. With Michael Allen still seemingly struggling to find the try line on a regular basis and Craig Gilroy becoming a rather predictable winger for opposition defences to stop, it’s maybe time to give Scholes his shot after a decent cameo in Italy.

Sunday’s game also proved that we have no decent back-up to Paddy Jackson. James McKinney wasn’t trusted to fill the Ginger Prince’s shoes and instead we had to watch as the Marshall-Pienaar combo struggled as per usual. I’m not a big fan of Pienaar playing 10 (as you can guess) and I still feel it should be a ‘break glass in case of emergency’ selection. For next season we desperately need someone who can partner Pienaar competently during international periods – and probably someone who can fill in for Pienaar in case of injury too.

But the main problem I want to address is Ulster’s mindset for these games. In the big matches like the Heineken Cup and interprovincials, we can match anybody as proven by this season’s Heineken Cup pool campaign. But in the bread-and-butter Pro12 games such as Sunday, we are suddenly found severely lacking. On Sunday we were very close to losing a game that looked like an away banker on paper, and against Zebre back in December we weren’t exactly convincing against them either.

Johann Muller is an exceptional captain, don’t get me wrong, but these matches should be games we put away with relative ease, and that means the captain should motivate his team accordingly. I’ll admit part of the problem on Sunday was referee George Clancy who was rather poor, but he’s still no excuse for our terrible play. It seemed like the players were wandering around as if they had the five points in the bag and we were nearly punished for it.

Although we weren’t punished this week, we now languish twelve points off leaders Munster (albeit with a game in hand) due to early season losses to the Dragons and Glasgow which we shouldn’t have lost. It’s games like those that we really need to be winning every time, but time and time again we don’t get motivated enough to win. That must change – I don’t know how, but it has to somehow otherwise we’ll never win a trophy. In order to win the Pro12 this season we’ll probably have to win two away knockout matches – more than likely both in Ireland – and that’s never easy.

I back us to do it though. If we get there and with a full team out I think we could defeat both Munster and Leinster away as well. However, we’re not there yet, and Sunday proved that we are not the complete package just yet. Nevertheless, we now sit in third place and we have plenty of games to make up ground on the top two.

Anyway, rant over.

EURO RELIEF

After months of being in the proverbial wilderness, it finally seems that things are beginning to sort themselves out, and that’s good for all parties concerned.

If you didn’t see what is being proposed as the new European competition, it is that there will be a new 20-team tournament with seven teams from the Pro12 (the highest placed finisher from each of the leagues, plus the next three top finishers), six each from the Top14 and Aviva Premiership and the final place will be awarded to the winner of a play-off between the seventh placed finishers in France and England.

There are more pressing issues such as finances and TV rights, but certainly things seem to be looking up – they will be sorted at another time. But for now, it looks like European rugby will be safe for another few years, and with the Italian teams pledging their support to the Pro12 for another four seasons, domestically our future looks secure too.

And as proven by yesterday’s announcement of the signing of Ruaidhri Murphy from the Brumbies on a two year deal, the transfers will hopefully begin to roll in now, and I have every confidence that David Humphreys is doing a lot of work in the background to ensure that Murphy isn’t the only player to move to Belfast ahead of next season.

Players weren’t going to agree to sign for us with such uncertainty over Europe, so now a few deals can hopefully be closed.

It also gives fans the peace of mind to begin booking season tickets for next season. A lot of people have been on edge recently (or people I know anyway) and don’t want to commit to signing up for potentially a ten-team Celtic league and no European competition, but now that there seem to be guarantees on both continuing more or less as they were, potentially there will be a surge in season ticket buyers for next season, especially with priority being given to those who do for this April’s Heineken Cup quarter-final against Saracens.

It also gives all parties what they initially bargained for: the PRL get to run the competition and have a meritocracy-based qualification system for the Pro12, while the unions still get to keep a check on the leagues through the higher council if they step out of line. In my opinion it is a fair compromise, and probably the best that we’re going to get. Secretly all parties are yearning for a solution, and this is one that suits everyone well – it should be (and probably will be) signed in the near future.

So, happy days then? Watch this space…

Swing low, sweet chariot

And so to the game that could define Ireland’s Six Nations hopes this season. Wales have been defeated so that’s one of our rivals down, now if we can beat England and then France the week afterwards then a Grand Slam is on the cards.

Ireland are in a great position though. Joe Schmidt seems to have brought in a new direction for the international team and so far it has worked wonders. Apart from that humiliation against Australia back in November, so far Schmidt has been a very successful coach for Ireland, and he has a policy of getting the win no matter what.

England have shown over the last two games that they’re beatable. France defeated them even though England were the better team, and despite the fact that this Scotland team is possibly the worst side to ever grace the Six Nations, the English could only put twenty points on them, and they squandered numerous opportunities. For all the positives being thrown at England, the stats don’t seem to back them up.

So in my opinion Ireland won’t get a better chance to win at Twickenham than this weekend, and if they go there and play for the full eighty minutes and come away with the win, then a few players can be given a well-deserved rest against Italy (who aren’t up to much more than Scotland) ahead of what should be a huge game against France in Paris that will decide whether the Grand Slam comes back to Dublin or not.

Then again, I shouldn’t get too ahead of myself, England can easily win this Saturday too. I backed them to win the Grand Slam at the start of the tournament, and although that won’t happen anymore, I still believe they’re one of the better teams in this competition, and although I now think that Ireland will win, England will push them all the way.

It will be an incredible match. I think Ireland will sneak it buoyed by the possibility of that final day Grand Slam shoot-out against France, however no team likes to lose at home (obviously) and the Twickenham crowd will demand that their side make up for that opening day loss at the Stade de France.

Time for Ireland to de-rail the chariot!

REFEREEING MASTERCLASS

For the more nostalgic of my readers, you will recall our match against the Scarlets in the Heineken Cup a few years ago where the rain hammered down and the wind whipped around Ravenhill. That night we were thoroughly beaten and I got thoroughly soaked on the long trek back to the car. It was not a good night.

Friday night reminded me a little of that game. Granted the weather was not as poor, and granted we won the match, but I was having horrendous flashbacks of that evening.

Having shaken off those demons, I was pleasantly surprised by the standard of rugby served up by the two sides considering the horrible conditions they had to cope with. Aside from a bit of kick tennis halfway through the second half where neither side seemed to want to play rugby at all, there was some good attacking intent from both teams – unfortunately more from the visitors than Ulster.

Credit must go to the man of the match. No, not the official man of the match Joe Bearman, but the best performer on the pitch in my opinion, referee Nigel Owens. On a night that threatened to become a sluggish forwards battle (and at points it looked like it was), Owens in his usual laissez-faire fashion allowed the game to flow and only intervened when necessary.

It’s a key aspect of Owens’ style, and one that should be mirrored in every referee, especially young ones rising up through the ranks – fans don’t want to see games dominated by a referee pinging every little offence at rucks. As one ref told me, “You could penalise something at every ruck – the key aspect of reffing is choosing what to punish.”

It is true, if you scrutinise a rugby match, there are blatantly obvious infringements that could be penalised at nearly every breakdown. However, Owens’ policy of restraint allows small infringements that don’t impact on the game to go amiss, and allow the game to continue, making it not only a better game for the players, but a greater spectacle for the fans too.

And of course, it’s always nice to see the players and referee having a bit of banter on the pitch, and the “You can’t do that Nick!” jibe in the second half proved that even in the big games, there’s always time for a smile and a joke – after all it’s just a game, and definitely not soccer!

Owens’ performance on Friday night reaffirmed my belief that he is the best referee in world rugby. Easy for the players to get on with, fair on both teams, doesn’t miss much on the pitch, and a great laugh on his Twitter account off it too (@Nigelrefowens for anybody who isn’t following him)!

If only there were a few more referees in the game like him.

Tries, tiffs and Tuohy

I could have also called this the good the bad and the ugly but I liked the alliteration of the ‘t’s, and I think Dan Tuohy may have also been rather offended by being described as ugly!

Of course, I’m not really calling him ugly (don’t worry Dan!), I’m calling his arm injury ugly. Tuohy is in the form of his career, and his loss will be felt by Ireland. He has been superb for Ulster this season, and if he doesn’t make it back in time for April’s Heineken Cup quarter-final then it will be a huge loss for the Ulstermen. His partnership with Johann Muller has been stellar, and his work at the breakdown nothing less than exceptional – he has been one of Ulster’s best and most consistent performers all season. All the best for his recovery, and hopefully he’ll be back sooner than expected.

The tries obviously refer to the fact that Ireland’s two tries were scored by Ulstermen as Chris Henry and Paddy Jackson both crossed for their first tries in green shirts. In fact, it was a good game for Ulster players in Ireland shirts in general. Rory Best was accurate at the line-out and was everywhere on the pitch, Henry forged a good back row partnership with O’Mahony and Heaslip, while Andrew Trimble was on fire on the wing, completely outplaying George North on the opposite wing. If anyone was doubting Ulster’s representation in the Ireland team, every single one of them justified their inclusion in the 23-man squad, and for any of them to be dropped for the trip to Twickenham in two weeks would be a travesty.

And finally the tiffs. We don’t like to see them in rugby, but Mike Phillips really is a dodgy character, and it’s no surprise Bayonne wanted rid of him. He was constantly probing at Ireland players, he got frustrated, and fair play to Wayne Barnes who quite rightly sin-binned him for being unable to keep his cool near the end of the game. If you haven’t seen the continued Twitter argument between One Direction’s Niall Horan, Phillips and Rob Kearney then I advise you to check it out: it will give you a bit of a laugh. But hopefully this will end soon – again, this isn’t soccer!

It’s been a good weekend for Irish sides. Three out of four provincial wins and the international side is still unbeaten in the Six Nations. I’ll admit, I went into the tournament with low expectations and I’m slowly being proved wrong. Hopefully the good run can continue – of course with no more injuries for Ulster players…

BALANCING ACT

Would I be right in saying that seven players is the biggest Ulster contingent on the Ireland team for a very long time? Genuine question by the way, I don’t know for sure, but that’s the most Ulster players I can remember being in an Ireland squad from the province up north.

The good thing is, they all performed well. I’ve already heard plenty of excuses for the performance this week: “It’s only Scotland.” True, the away side ran around the Aviva pitch without much of a purpose for about three-quarters of that match, but even so, you can only play what’s in front of you, and deservedly Ireland took the two points this week.

It was a game that was always a potential banana skin for Ireland. With Scotland having won the last three meetings between the two sides, there was always that niggling doubt in the back of Ireland fans’ minds even with the home advantage. However the doubt was misplaced – Scotland threatened I think once in the entire eighty minutes, and but for the accurate kicking of Greig Laidlaw, they would have gone home with no points to show for their half-hearted efforts.

Nevertheless, Ireland did have a few stand-out performers (and please excuse me if my slight Ulster bias shows!). In the back row both Peter O’Mahony and Chris Henry were imperious at the breakdown. From the first minute to the last they were effecting turnovers and providing quick ball for Conor Murray, who is my third stand-out performer. For a while he was criticised for being too slow with his passing, but alongside Sexton (who was also good) he controlled the game from half-back. It was very good to see Trimble score as well having made his first start for Ireland in a long time (well overdue too).

But the two best performers of the game were Cian Healy and Dan Tuohy. Healy was his rampaging best, making yards with ball in hand and being destructive in the scrum too. He’s widely touted as the best loosehead prop in the world. With a performance like that, you would be a fool to argue. On the other hand, Tuohy was thrust into the game on Sunday morning after Paul O’Connell went down with an infection, and he didn’t disappoint. Imperious at the line-out, fervent at the breakdown, and also making his fair share of yards with ball in hand too, Tuohy proved that he belonged in that Ireland 23.

Wales are next up for Ireland, and despite the win, improvements will have to be made. Wales are a much more serious prospect than the Scots, and with England losing to France at the weekend, it’s a great chance for Ireland to knock another Grand Slam rival down out of the running. Wales are there for the taking though, Italy came pretty close to it and but for one horrible defensive error, there could have been a huge shock at the Millennium Stadium.

However, a good start to Schmidt’s Six Nations campaign, and if the performance is raised by 10% then another win should be on the cards come Saturday.

Domestic demons

Ulster vs. Ospreys is usually a very good fixture. Usually very closely contested too, especially the games at Ravenhill. So you will excuse me for feeling semi-optimistic for this Friday’s game.

Now don’t get me wrong, I still think Ulster will win. Hopefully by more than seven points too, denying the Ospreys a losing bonus point would be brilliant. But the Ospreys are a dogged team – they can drag teams down a level while still maintaining their own and if they are allowed to come to Ravenhill and play rugby then they will be a real handful. Their back line has been left rather intact by Wales, and they are lethal – Eli Walker and Richard Fussell being two of the best attacking players in the Pro12.

This is probably the most Ulster have ever been decimated by call-ups, and our strength in depth will be severely tested over the next few weeks. However, we can still call upon the influential duo of Pienaar and Muller, and we will need all of that experience and talent to see off one of our title rivals.

It will be a great match, as every Ulster-Ospreys game tends to be. I still wish they would schedule it so that this match doesn’t take place during international breaks – imagine the crowds this game would pull if it was two full strength teams battling it out near the end of the season.

Ah well, a man can dream – instead we can look forward to two slightly under-strength teams fighting it out for third place in the league as the race for the play-offs begins to heat up. Expect some big hits, big plays, and hopefully some big scoring too, as Pro12 rugby returns to Ravenhill!

SIX OF THE BEST

I’m not a massive fan of the Six Nations. I’m not a massive fan of international rugby in general. However, this season I’m taking a little bit of an interest in it. With a new coach at the helm, there’s definitely the possibility of a miracle happening a la Declan Kidney’s Grand Slam season, but I’m actually really looking forward to seeing how the side can do in their first competitive tournament, especially after that defeat to the All Blacks.

So in that vein, enjoy the 2014 Hound on the Hill Six Nations preview!

ENGLAND

Captain: Chris Robshaw

Coach: Stuart Lancaster
Stadium: Twickenham Stadium, 82,000
Last season: 2^nd

I’ve been impressed with England. Forget the Saxons defeat last weekend, I watched the end of the game and but for Freddie Burns’ insane throw into touch at the death, it may have been a different result. I like what Stuart Lancaster is doing at Twickenham, he’s revolutionised a good side under Martin Johnson, and turned them into a great side. In my opinion they were the rightful winners of the Six Nations last season, they simply couldn’t convert their dominance into that final win at the Millennium Stadium.

                This season I think they’ll go one step further. True they’re missing Manu Tuilagi and Tom Croft, two of their biggest stars, but they have strength all over the park and if they can keep all the rest of their stars free from injury, then I think it will be difficult for anyone to stop them. Their scrum is stronger than any of the others in the tournament, and if they can take the game to sides up front then they can rely on Owen Farrell to kick the goals.

                Unfortunately, Farrell may be their biggest downfall too. I’ll admit, he’s a great fly-half and you can count on him to kick 99/100 goals for you, while also probing the corners. In open play however, he isn’t the best at getting a back line moving. Farrell will do the basics for you, and while that may be what Lancaster is looking for, it won’t win him tournaments, like Carter does for the All Blacks. Bath fly-half George Ford has been named on the squad after a superb start to the season, and if he can work his way onto the team, maybe shifting Farrell out to 12 would be an option, then perhaps England would be a more potent attacking threat.

                Nevertheless, I back the Englishmen to bring home the bacon. As much as I hate the English “we’re better than you all” attitude, this season I fear it may be true. If they win fair and square, we’ll hold our hands up and say well done, however they are beatable if the backs don’t quite get going. But for me, this tournament is the English’s to lose.

Key player: If you watched Saracens’ demolishing of Connacht, you will know how good Alex Goode can be, and if he’s given too much space, he can carve holes in the opposition defences. His ability to switch with Mike Brown to wing will cause a lot of problems as well.

Bolter: He started this season a long way behind Deacon and Parling in the pecking order, but with injuries to key men, keep an eye on Graham Kitchener at lock. He’s been in fine form for the Tigers, and once he comes back from injury, he is a powerful presence at the line-out.

Prediction: 1^st

FRANCE

Captain: Pascal Pape

Coach: Phillipe Saint-Andre
Stadium: Stade de France, 81,500
Last season: 6^th

France are so hard to predict because you never know how they’re actually going to play. It’s widely believed that the Six Nations after a Lions tour always belongs to France simply because the rest of the nations are still on a Lions hangover, and while facts may be on the French team’s side, they will have to work hard to keep that “record” going. However, it’s fair to say that we haven’t seen such a weak French side in a long time. For all their flair and skill, they lack the grit and determination to win tough games, and naturally they will struggle to come away with wins when their backs are up against the wall.

                They are beginning to struggle from a weak club system. Now that there is big money being pumped into the French game, there are less and less French players featuring for their local clubs, and instead they are forced to watch from the sidelines as big name stars from the southern hemisphere start ahead of them. Where one French name fell, another massive player would rise and take his place in the past. Nowadays they are woefully exposed in several areas and do not possess the fear factor of their predecessors. Saint-Andre has done the best he can with limited resources, but he is being stretched beyond his capabilities.

                They will beat most teams though. Their scrum will not be marched back very often, and the back line, marshalled by Clermont centre Wesley Fofana, has the flair and guile to run in tries aplenty over the next two months. I’m very interested to see how the half-back pairing of Doussain and Tales goes for our Gallic cousins – two players at the top of their game for their respective clubs, but not yet proven at international level.

                A respectable finish is on the cards for the French. Can’t see them winning it outright, although mind you, stranger things have happened in this competition. They still have the same fault as their clubs – they are not as strong on the road as at home, but if they can go into those away games with the right attitude then perhaps the Lions record may go on…

Key player: It may seem like he’s been around for years, but Louis Picamoles is just 27, and is quickly reaching his fiftieth cap for France. He is one of those players that others rally around for guidance, and he, along with Pape, will be crucial to deciding France’s fate in this season’s tournament.

Bolter: Had he not been injured it would have been Sofiane Guitoune, but instead I’ll go for Sebastien Vahaamahina of Perpignan. A massive lad at 6ft 8, he doesn’t get beaten in the air very often, and with only three locks in the squad, he’s one good performance away from grabbing that coveted starting place in the team.

Prediction: 3^rd

IRELAND

Captain: Paul O’Connell

Coach: Joe Schmidt
Stadium: AVIVA Stadium, 51,500
Last season: 5^th

Ah Ireland. As much as I want to say everything will be great and by this time in March we will have the Six Nations wrapped up with a superb Grand Slam win, I can’t see that happening. National expectations are at an all-time high after nearly defeating the All Blacks, and I fear we will be desperately disappointed by how badly we will do. With the World Cup coming up soon, this season should maybe be more of a focus on performances rather than results, although a trophy in the cabinet would be a very good way to boost confidence.

                However, there are still cobwebs to brush off from the Kidney era. The side is still too old, especially if we are building for the World Cup next year, and we still have no decent back-up to Brian O’Driscoll once he goes (unless Darren Cave is reinstated as an option). Much like France, if Ireland lose a few players in key positions (tighthead prop and openside flanker to name a few) then we will be badly exposed against the best teams.

                In saying that, I think we’ll be exposed anyway. I can see why Schmidt would opt to stick with what he knows and go with a Leinster-dominated team, and they are still the best Irish side of course, but if he continues to have such a heavy Leinster dominance then there will be little motivation for other players to try and get on the team. If it works, then there won’t be too many complaints, but there are underlying issues – the dominance of one province looks incredibly poor on the outside.

                But for all the (or maybe more my) criticisms of the Irish national side, there are some overwhelming strengths of course, and under Schmidt, the team does seem to be showing a lot of promise. Certainly no other side can boast the sheer tenacity that the Irish players show and the strong breakdown work that they do. With a back row of O’Mahony, Henry and Heaslip, they will do a lot of groundhog work on the ground. If they can force the penalties, then Sexton will kick the points.

                For now, I think just an improvement would be expected from Ireland. Schmidt is still easing his way into the job, and he’ll take a few wins and a respectable finish in the table. If he can get a bit more familiarity with his players then he will be in a great position in the build up to the World Cup next year.

Key player: I don’t think anyone will deny that Ireland’s hopes rest on Jonathan Sexton firing on all cylinders and staying fit. His form for Racing Metro is uninspiring to say the least, but back with his Irish mates hopefully he can get back to his form from his Leinster days and link up with Conor Murray again.

Bolter: With BOD going at the end of the season, the outside centre shirt is up for grabs – look for Robbie Henshaw staking his claim to replace the legend by carrying his Connacht form from one green shirt into another.

Prediction: 4^th

ITALY

Captain: Sergio Parisse

Coach: Jacques Brunel
Stadium: Stadio Olimpico, 73,000
Last season: 4^th

Fair dues to the Italians last season, they exceeded everyone’s expectations and managed to finish fourth with wins over Ireland and France. Jacques Brunel will be looking to improve on that: with rugby largely overshadowed by the successful international football team, there is now an opportunity for rugby to be presented on a larger stage to the Italian public, especially with Treviso and Zebre beginning to find a foothold in the Pro12 and Heineken Cup.

                In my opinion, their strength is their underdog status. Despite their obvious improvements and slow rise up the IRB World Rankings, Italy are still undoubtedly seen as the sixth team of the Six Nations, and only there to make up the numbers. Although the majority of rugby fans now see that this is no longer true, there are still a lot of people who think games against Italy are foregone conclusions. If Italy can exploit the incorrect mindsets of sides, then their improved side can cause many upsets.

                But they are the so-called sixth side for a reason – they blow hot and cold. If they can get going they can take on the best in the world and give them a good game. If they don’t show up, then they may find themselves on the wrong end of a cricket scoreline. Much like the French, they don’t travel well compared to the British Isles sides and with Martin Castrogiovanni coming to the end of his career, their scrum is rather weak by comparison with the other five sides. Italy will be bullied by stronger packs, and with a set of rather uninspiring backs beyond out-half Luciano Orquera, it’s hard to see where the Italians will score a lot of points.

                Unless they can take down Scotland, I can only see a sixth place no points scored finish for the Italians. Look, as much as I like the Italians, they struggle to keep up with the big teams unless they’re on the very top of their game, and with a very old squad in rugby terms, what they don’t lack in experience, they do in fresh new ideas. Brunel has his work cut out.

Key player: It would be hard to look past the man mountain that is Martin Castrogiovanni. The ex-Leicester, now Toulon man provides a punch in the front row and if he lasts a full 80 minutes in a match then he will make the opposition pay with some strong runs and some bone-crushing hits.

Bolter: Scotland were cursing their luck when they missed on Tommy Allan for their squad and Italy got him instead. Now christened Tommaso by his Italian brethren, the Perpignan utility back can play in pretty much every position along the back line making him a great option for the bench, or even starting, and luckily he has the talent to boot.

Prediction: 6^th

SCOTLAND

Captain: Kelly Brown

Coach: Scott Johnson
Stadium: Murrayfield Stadium, 67,000
Last season: 3^rd

For Scotland this is somewhat of a transition year. With Scott Johnson being pushed aside and Vern Cotter taking over at the end of the season, there is the opportunity for several players to stake their claims to continue on in his set-up, while also sending Johnson out on a high. But Scotland are still the lethargic, boring side that we all love to hate unfortunately, and that nilled result against South Africa proved that Scotland are still a step or two behind the best.

                Cotter shall be watching with interest because he has a lot of work to do. They don’t have an established fly-half, they have an out of form hooker who is only in the team due to a lack of decent replacements, and a passive back row compared to the other teams in the Six Nations. And all these problems are what Johnson must deal with now. There are too many issues for Scotland to deal with to launch a considerable title bid, and an unfavourable draw may see them finish bottom despite last season’s top half finish.

                They may benefit from an Italian side that are just a bit worse than Scotland are. The Scottish backs are very talented too, with Matt Scott and Stuart Hogg leading the attack. As long as Johnson can settle on who is his first choice fly-half out of Ruaridh Jackson and Duncan Weir then his backs should be fine. If the forwards can do their job then they will pose a few threats – Ireland know rightly that the Scottish can be a difficult side to face if they are at their best.

                Scotland do not possess the strength in depth or even the raw talent of the other sides in the tournament, but should they win a few games early on then they could get a head of steam up. They have the added incentive of giving Scott Johnson one final hoorah before he makes way for Cotter, and that could be incentive enough to spur them into action.

Key player: Scotland really rely on Greig Laidlaw to not only kick the goals, but more or less run the show from scrum-half. The Edinburgh scrum-half maybe hasn’t been in the best of form for the capital side, but if he can get his game going, then Scotland will benefit greatly, and he can really influence a result.

Bolter: At just 19, Jonny Gray is already pushing into both the Glasgow and the Scotland team, and but for his brother Richie, he could have more than just his two caps already. He’s only been on the scene for a year and a half, but he’s caused quite a stir already – he could cause one more and oust his brother from his starting position internationally!

Prediction: 5^th

WALES

Captain: Sam Warburton
Coach: Warren Gatland
Stadium: Millennium Stadium, 74,500
Last season: 1^st

With Leigh Halfpenny departing to Toulon at the end of the season, the horrible news for Welsh fans continue as their stars continue to depart for sunnier shores. However, they do have the international team to fall back on, boasting the majority of the Lions team that humiliated the Australians over the summer, and they are still the defending Six Nations champions – at least until the end of March anyway!

                Wales are probably the strongest side in the competition, regardless of what I’ve said about England. With an all-Lions front row (or would have been but for injury) of Jenkins, Hibbard and Adam Jones backed up by Alun-Wyn Jones and likely James King from the second row, their scrum will be up there with the best. Combine that with a lethal back three finishing combo of North, Cuthbert and Halfpenny, along with Halfpenny’s ever-reliable kicking, you can see why it’s so difficult to win against the Welsh.

                But it’s not impossible of course. Wales tend to choke in the big matches (last season’s clash against England aside) as highlighted in the Autumn Internationals, and should they lose Halfpenny’s kicking ability then suddenly their ability to keep the scoreboard ticking over vanishes, leaving them rather vulnerable. The weight of expectation will be firmly upon them as well – they’ve won two Six Nations in a row, the pressure is on them to retain it for a second year running. Difficult enough, but when your nation expects you to do it to make up for the failings of the four regions, it makes the job even harder.

                They’ll give it a very good go. Wales aren’t a side to give up without a fight, and with the experience and belief they possess, I can’t see them finishing anywhere other than the top two. In the end, it could all be down to the fact that England have home advantage in the two teams’ match, otherwise we could be looking at three on the bounce. Hey, we still could…

Key player: He was probably the first Welshman to leave in the exodus, but George North still plays a massive role in the success of Wales. His incredible ability to finish from even small chances makes him one of the best wingers in the game today, and Wales will hope he stays fit for the entire campaign – they need his try-scoring nuance.

Bolter: With the fly-half role not yet nailed down for Wales, the chance has arisen for Dan Biggar to make the shirt his own. In a relatively poor season for the Ospreys so far, he has been the one shining light, and if he can bring that form onto the international stage then he could easily nail down a starting position at the Millennium Stadium for the next few years.

Prediction: 2^nd

TERRIFIC TOP SEEDS

What a game, what a win, and what an opportunity we have been gifted.

It was a monumental night at Welford Road. I forwent my position in the press box to join the rest of the Ulster fans on the Holland and Barrett terrace on Saturday night, and I was not disappointed. We sang, we chanted and we cheered all night in delight as Ulster deservedly left the home of the Tigers with all four points, and our unbeaten run in this season’s competition still firmly intact, leaving us a head and shoulders above the rest in Europe.

Now we have been rewarded with a home quarter-final against Saracens to look forward to at Ravenhill which (touch wood) will be completed just in time to be able to host the game. The players have done their job, now it’s time for the builders to fulfil their side of the bargain and have the ground ready for the 5^th April!

Back to the game on Saturday night, and to me it proved two things. Firstly that we are one of the best sides in Europe. For years we have sort of drifted on the edge of the best sides in Europe – there but not quite if you catch my drift. But we despatched the Tigers with a controlled and professional performance, confirming to the rest of the rugby world that we are genuine contenders for the title, and that we can break the ‘six from six curse’.

Secondly, that Ruan Pienaar is the best scrum-half in the northern hemisphere. His kicking game was absolutely superb, both from hand and off the tee, but the composure he brings to the game and his quick passing from the ground constantly puts Ulster on the front foot. He is in top form, and long may it continue – he is a joy to watch in full flow.

Nobody will now fancy a trip to Ravenhill. Ulster proved on Saturday night that we can exploit the weaknesses of teams, and over the pool stages we have done everything that has been asked of us, including notching up two superb away wins at two of the toughest grounds in Europe. In fact, it’s a bit of a disgrace that Ulster aren’t given more of a chance at winning the tournament considering how they have taken apart two real contenders at the start of the year.

So now we’re looking forward to a home quarter-final in April and the chance of revenge against the side that knocked us out last season at this stage. For three years we have been travelling in the knockouts of the Heineken Cup, now we’ve finally achieved a home quarter-final and a glorious chance to reach the semi-finals too. As a top club, we are still slowly improving, and with the opportunity to reach the final without leaving Ireland, the incentive is there.

This could finally be Ulster’s season to win a trophy. We’ll have to defeat three big teams to get there, but this side is growing in confidence, and with home advantage behind us in the quarters and a potential semi-final, I don’t think I’m being unreasonable whenever I say that we really should make the final at least.

Failing that, we should win the thing outright.

Quality quarter-finalists

I don’t think there has ever been a year where the Heineken Cup quarter-finalists have been of such quality. The line up features six former champions, the defending English and Celtic champions, and Saracens (sorry, had to say that!). Three French sides, three Irish, and two English. Hm, seems to represent the current hierarchy in European rugby in my opinion…

And although it doesn’t include the might of Toulouse and Leinster like it did last season, the Amlin should still provide some quality match-ups, including two all-English clashes between Wasps and Gloucester, and Sale and Northampton. Keep your eye on Bath though – they’re playing very well in the Premiership, and deservedly finished as top seeds in the Amlin. They could go all the way, and I don’t think anyone would argue if they did.

If you’re not already excited for April, then there’s something wrong with you. It will be incredibly difficult to predict any of the eight knockout matches, and it will prove to be a cracking weekend of rugby. Just the matter of some small international tournament to deal with first, before the real rugby returns!

Heineken Cup quarter-finals

Ulster Rugby vs. Saracens
ASM Clermont Auvergne vs. Leicester Tigers
Toulon vs. Leinster Rugby
Munster Rugby vs. Toulouse

Amlin Challenge Cup quarter-finals

Bath Rugby vs. Brive
London Wasps vs. Gloucester Rugby
Sale Sharks vs. Northampton Saints
Stade Francais Paris vs. Harlequins

NEW YEAR, NEW CHALLENGES

I don’t quite know how to start this week because Saturday was a complete disaster.

Based on how we played, it would be a fair assumption to say that half of our players were still at home having Christmas dinner on Saturday evening. Of the entire starting fifteen probably only Robbie Diack and Dan Tuohy could hold their heads high at the end of the game, and had Ruan Pienaar and Jared Payne not been introduced when they were, then the final assault on the Leinster line probably wouldn’t have happened either.

Saturday emphasised how much we rely on a few players. You could see a visible difference in the way we played once Pienaar and Payne came on, and without Muller’s leadership and John Afoa’s scrummaging prowess, we struggled to break down a Leinster team which featured many of their second string players.

Admittedly, we did not play well on the day, that’s an unavoidable fact. While it is well and good criticising our strength in depth and our reliance on our non-Irish qualified players, the bottom line is we just did not perform on the day. The RDS is a hard place to go a win, even when you are in-form, so to try and win playing as we were was close to rugby suicide.

But probably the worst part of it all was we didn’t come away from the game with anything to show for it. Had we scored at the end and secured a losing bonus point, it would have softened the blow considerably and would have kept us in the top four of the Pro12. In truth, we probably didn’t deserve the bonus point, but certainly when you compared the two sides on the field, it was the minimum we wanted to leave with.

Therefore, it puts us in a difficult position. Saturday was the first game of four huge clashes in the Pro12 and the Heineken Cup which will define our season, and it would be a fair assessment to say we’ve already stumbled at the first hurdle. Now we face the daunting task of welcoming Munster, who have lost just two games all season, to Ravenhill in what looks like being a must-win game to save our Pro12 season.

Lose, and we will face a massive uphill battle just to reach fourth place in the league and travel away in the play-offs. Right now we’ve lost the same number of games domestically than we did in the whole of last season – for us to be in with a shout at the end of the season then we must be looking at only one or two more losses at worst. Losing this week would be a bad start.

Undoubtedly, the performances must improve. Some claim that our poor performance in Dublin was down to the fact that we faced the two Italian sides four weeks in a row – we couldn’t raise the intensity. This week we can have no such excuse coming off a hugely physical clash, so we should be able to replicate Leinster’s intensity and bring it to this Friday’s match. This week we must get out of the blocks quickly and gain a foothold in the game – the exact opposite to what happened on Saturday.

Expect a full side out at Ravenhill ahead of the following Heineken Cup matches against Montpellier and Leicester. This is the crunch time of the season for teams looking to compete on two fronts, and Ulster will be targeting all three wins which would keep them in the hunt for the Pro12 play-offs and would secure a home quarter-final in the Heineken Cup too, as well as a six from six record in the European pool stages too.

It’s a huge three weeks just into the New Year, and it provides Ulster the perfect opportunity to forget about what happened a week previous and focus on making 2014 a good year for the province. With Johann Muller, Tom Court and John Afoa all confirmed to be leaving at the end of the season, it’s a chance to provide these players with a final shot at winning some silverware with their adopted provinces.

Three weeks, three wins is the aim, and in the context of Ulster’s season, this is possibly required. Our Pro12 hopes wouldn’t be over with a loss on Friday, but they would take a massive hit if we did, and if we travelled away in the Heineken Cup quarter-finals for the fourth year running, then that would be a huge blow after our brilliant win in Montpellier. It’s a big test for us, and if we want to be one of the best in Europe, then we must pass it with flying colours.

Happy New Year everyone!