After the
tragic events of last week, Ulster return to the pitch this weekend to face the
Cardiff Blues in the PRO12. And it will be some game…
Who will be black and Blue?
Last
season, Ulster were left rueing their missed chances when they slumped to
another of their losses on the road. After taking an early lead through a
Robbie Diack try, they conceded two soft tries to winger Tom James and veteran
fly half Dan Parks, while the aforementioned Parks kicked eleven points to give
the Blues the win.
This time
round only one of those players will play (Tom James) with Diack injured and
Parks off to Connacht. Indeed, only seven of the thirty players that started
the match last February will play this week, and fourteen of those thirty have
moved on to new teams.
This
weekend it should be a completely different affair. Ulster haven’t been
successful in the Arms Park since 2005, however that win was in September –
maybe fate is on their side?
This is no
time to get superstitious though! I don’t believe in fate and I’m not going to
base my prediction on that. Instead, Ulster will have to be at their best to
return from the Arms Park with a hard fought win. Cardiff proved their talent
with a crushing bonus-point win over Treviso. Ulster must make sure that they
don’t suffer the same fate…
But Ulster
haven’t faced a harder test than this yet. Munster came to Ravenhill with a
tenacity and ferocity that we hadn’t faced, but lacked that final something and
were duly dispatched. This game, however, is away from home and against a side
that are third and will want to mount a serious title charge after being
written off by many before the start of the season.
Their team
is not foolproof, no. Young teenager Harry Robinson has replaced Wales
international Alex Cuthbert on the wing after the latter withdrew with a
hamstring injury. He’ll have Andrew Trimble running at him all night – a match
up he may not fancy.
Anybody
remember Jason Tovey? The ex-Dragons fly half was brought in to replace the
outgoing Dan Parks but instead he found himself warming the bench after
illness. Instead, he had to watch Rhys Patchell steer Cardiff to victories over
Treviso, Connacht and the Dragons, but crash at home against Edinburgh. He’ll want
to prove he will be the Blues’ number one at number ten.
But for
the areas they lack in, they make up for in experience. All Ireland fans will
remember Bradley Davies after his tip-tackle in last season’s Six Nations – he’ll
be running out for his 100th cap in a blue jersey. Not bad for a guy
who’s only 25.
In the
midfield, centre Jamie Roberts in no stranger to a rugby match either having
played 76 times for Cardiff and 44 times for Wales. Anscombe has switched
Darren Cave to the unfamiliar position of inside centre to counter-act Roberts’
presence on the field and allow young Mike Allen to flourish outside him.
Roberts vs. Cave will be some clash.
In the
back row, Sam Warburton needs no introduction. The Wales captain made his long
awaited return to the club stage against Edinburgh and hasn’t looked back
since. Watch out for his work at the breakdown which makes him such a
formidable opponent.
And if you
haven’t heard of Andy Kyriacou then you obviously haven’t followed Ulster long.
The hooker admitted that this will be an emotional match for him, not only
because of the circumstances, but considering this is the first time he’ll have
met his former team-mates since Nevin Spence’s death.
Where will
the game be won? Obviously this week I can’t use my usual cheesy answer of ‘The crowd will win it!’ This week it
will be down to the players and how they play.
In our
last two games the scrum has been so dominant with Court, Brady and Afoa controlling
the set piece. Cardiff have a rather unproven prop in Nathan Trevett, who will
be going up against the World Cup winner Afoa. On paper it looks like it will
be a walkover in the scrum. Maybe it will be. But the front row have to get the
job done, or they could look foolish.
Ulster’s
returning internationals must make their mark as well. Tommy Bowe will be
relishing a first start for his home province and will be looking forward to
attacking Tom James. A try on his return debut must be his aim. Dan Tuohy must
continue on Johann Muller’s work in the captain’s absence and Chris Henry has
to lead from the front and by example. Players like Allen and Henderson will
draw from this and the team can flourish from there.
They first
must establish a firm base – gain good possession in good territory early on
and build on it. Make sure the Blues don’t get any momentum, keep knocking over
the penalties if we can’t get over the whitewash, and make sure we’re always
either ahead or right behind them.
As I said,
I don’t believe in fate, superstitions, luck or coincidence. But, for the
Ospreys match I was negative and said we’d lose. Thankfully I was wrong. This
week I’m very tempted to go the same
way in the hope the same thing happens, even though I think Ulster will win. But
no, I’ll stick by my guns and go for an Ulster win, but by a small margin. Prediction – Ulster by 5.
Selection headaches
Mark
Anscombe will undoubtedly have ruffled some feathers with his team selection
this weekend, leaving out the in-form duo of Luke Marshall and Lewis Stevenson.
Instead, Mike Allen moves to the centre to accommodate Tommy Bowe’s return and
Neil McComb starts at lock. Iain Henderson also starts at second row for the
first time in an Ulster shirt.
I’m not
going to argue with his choices after our start to the season. All we can do is
put faith in the coach and hope his choices are the right ones for the club.
After all – he hasn’t let us down so far, has he?
Around the grounds
A new
addition to my Thursday blog, I’ll look at each of the PRO12 games in the
coming weekend and give my verdict on how they’ll go…
Dragons vs. Edinburgh – The Dragons
haven’t hit top form yet and will want to cause an upset, but Edinburgh should
have enough talent to leave them empty handed. Dragons 13-23 Edinburgh
Glasgow vs. Zebre – Only one
way this will go, and it won’t be a happy trip for the away fans. The Scots
will run riot. Glasgow 32-9 Zebre
Connacht vs. Leinster – I can
see Connacht pushing them all the way, but Leinster should have enough to grab
the win. Connacht 16-24 Leinster
Ospreys vs. Munster –
Undoubtedly the game of the weekend and it will be a second win for the
defending champions. Well, just. Ospreys
17-16 Munster
Treviso vs. Scarlets – The Scarlets
should extend their lead in the league, although Treviso have been doing not
too badly and should get a losing bonus point. Treviso 25-30 Scarlets
Match details
Ulster
15. Jared
Payne, 14. Tommy Bowe, 13. Mike Allen, 12. Darren Cave, 11. Andrew Trimble, 10.
Paddy Jackson, 9. Paul Marshall; 1. Tom Court, 2. Rob Herring, 3. John Afoa, 4.
Neil McComb, 5. Dan Tuohy, 6. Iain Henderson, 7. Chris Henry (c), 8. Nick
Williams.
Subs: 16. Rob
Herring, 17. Callum Black, 18. Adam Macklin, 19. Lewis Stevenson, 20. Mike
McComish, 21. Michael Heaney, 22. Paddy Wallace, 23. Craig Gilroy.
Cardiff
Blues
15. Dan
Fish, 14. Harry Robinson, 13. Dafydd Hewitt, 12. Jamie Roberts, 11. Tom James,
10. Jason Tovey, 9. Lloyd Williams; 1. Nathan Trevett, 2. Andy Kyriacou, 3. Taufao’ao
Filise, 4. Bradley Davies, 5. James Down, 6. Robin Copeland, 7. Sam Warburton,
8. Andries Pretorius (c).
Subs: 16. Rhys
Williams, 17. Campese Ma’afu, 18. Scott Andrews, 19. Lou Reed, 20. Rory
Watts-Jones, 21. Rob Lewis, 22. Gareth Davies, 23. Tom Williams.
Cardiff Arms
Park, 7:05pm
Referee:
Marius Mitrea (Italy, 11th competition game)
Assistants:
Nigel Owens, Ian Davies (both Wales)
Citing Commissioner:
Richard Gwynn (Wales)
TMO: Neil
Ballard (Wales)
Live on BBC
Wales and BBC NI
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