ULSTER SHOWING THE WAY TO GO

The Ulster bandwagon keeps going. And going. And going. That’s eight in a row we’ve won now and the unbeaten run doesn’t look like being stopped any time soon. Ulster have been transformed into a formidable European force. Teams will now look at their fixture list and think to themselves, ‘Uh-oh, we’ve got Ulster next.’

But what is so different? Last season, we were good, but not great. This year we can’t stop winning. But why?

Walking in an Anscombe wonderland

It’s 56 days till Christmas so I’m getting in the holiday spirit!

Speaking of Christmas, anybody else think that we could still be unbeaten on the 25^th December? At the start of the season I think every Ulster fan would’ve laughed if we were seriously thinking that would even be a faint possibility let alone a real aim.

But, lo and behold, we enter November at the top of the tree with a game in hand and a big fat 0 under the Loss column in the table. Sometimes stats like that can be misleading, but for Ulster it is the complete opposite. Three wins away in Wales, two at home against Irish rivals and one at home to Glasgow confirm Ulster as a real and potent threat. And that’s not including two more wins in the Heineken Cup.

Look at the difference in Ulster’s games in Wales this season:

             Last season – Played 4, Won 0, Lost 4, Points: 2
            This season – Played 3, Won 3, Lost 0, Points: 14
That is some difference. Winning away last year was not Ulster’s forte, with only three wins (again, not including Heineken games) in Edinburgh, Monza and Treviso. This year, we’ve already matched that. In three away games. And we’ve yet to play Zebre, who are considered an easy four points.

And another stat: the record for an unbeaten run by Ulster is eleven. Two wins will do it, starting in Belfast against Edinburgh and then Zebre in Parma. Both are what should be considered easy victories. But Ulster will have to keep their composure, and heed Anscombe’s warnings to keep their feet on the ground, or it could just end up being an embarrassment.

But there is still that question on the table – what is so different from last year?

There would be the simple answer – the players are different. Well, not that different. But the new guys who have arrived in Belfast have made a massive impression. Rob Herring has proved himself to be an ample understudy to Rory Best;  Sean Doyle is a menace at blindside flanker; while returning faces Roger Wilson, Tommy Bowe and Niall O’Connor know what they’re doing. But the players tab goes beyond the new signings.

No, the young players making the move up from the Academy to the 1^st team are extremely important to the club’s development as well. Iain Henderson has stepped up in Stephen Ferris’ absence and managed to earn himself an Irish call-up, proving what talent is in the ranks. The same goes to Luke Marshall who has deputised for Paddy Wallace while he was injured, and is pushing the veteran for his place every step of the way. He’ll head to Dublin this week as well.

Mike Allen is another talent making the breakthrough as well, and he’ll get another chance to try and take Darren Cave’s place during the Autumn Internationals. The unfortunate Chris Farrell, who is now out for the season, was also very impressive at the beginning of the season and no doubt will get another chance next year. Not only that, but Rob Herring and Sean Doyle are both 22 and have great futures ahead of them.

So the players are one reason for the success. But there is more to it than that.

I was reading Munsterfans today (the Munster fans’ forum – please don’t judge me) and they were speaking about the unity and belief that Ulster seem to have at the moment. The fans, the staff, the players, everybody connected with Ulster seem to believe that we can win every game this season. And that is vital to keeping the run going.

So there’s two reasons. But there’s one more which I think is the most important. Or rather, who I think is most important. A certain man by the name of Mark Anscombe.

Before he arrived in the province, many had their doubts, myself included. This was a guy who led Auckland to mid-table finishes in the league for five years straight. Why am I complaining? One reason - Auckland are arguably the best side in the league. That’s like Leinster finishing sixth in the PRO12 from now until 2017.

On the flipside, he led the New Zealand U20s to the 2011 Junior World Championship. This is an obvious success, but considering the ‘Baby Blacks’ have won the competition four out of the five times they’ve entered and only lost twice ever, this could be called no more than formality.

But the past has been forgotten within two months of his first game in charge. Anscombe has shown that he has the ability to turn Ulster into a trophy-winning team – not just in Europe, but in the league too. If the team’s current form is anything to go by, he will have no problem in stepping up for the ‘Coach of the Year’ award at the end of the season.

But most of the plaudits are not being given to him. What is being noticed is the work on the field of the players and, as I have mentioned, they have a big part to play. But off the field, on the training ground, it is Anscombe who is making the moves, making the tactics, picking that match-winning team and making sure those players will win that game – no matter what.

Another person who was considered to be a risky addition to the side was Nick Williams. But back with his old coach in New Zealand has brought the best out in the Kiwi back rower once again and he is playing the rugby of his life. Even the style that Anscombe has brought to the table is one which Ulster have never seen before, but have grasped and embraced. It is the quick off-loading style that is most usually seen in the Southern Hemisphere, and more locally at Leinster (under the tutelage of another New Zealander, Joe Schmidt). And it is working up north as well.

So hats off to Mark Anscombe. What he has done for Ulster is fantastic. How long is his contract – two years? Might be a bit longer if he keeps this form going…

Dragons’ fire extinguished

I’m giving just a brief recollection of the game from Friday since I watched it on Sky+ at double speed last night. After being away for the weekend, it was nice to come home and watch a super victory.

It was good to see Andrew Trimble play so well ahead of the Autumn Internationals. A performance like that surely grabbed the attention of Declan Kidney. And with Ireland’s injured wingers, Trimble could be just what the team needs. It seems likely that Tommy Bowe will be forced to play at full-back in the absence of Rob Kearney and Keith Earls, leaving the 14 shirts up for grabs.

But the main thing that I took from the game was Ulster’s ability to take the bonus point away, even with the many, many, many, MANY mistakes that they made. They managed to notch up six tries over the course of 80 minutes, and managed to butcher about another six with basic errors. But rather than look at the negatives – I say look at the positive instead. Five points gained in the quest for the league title and the unbeaten run is still intact.

It’s good to be an Ulsterman right now.

OLD GUARD IN NEWPORT

I have that feeling this week. I have no idea why. I just have it.

You know that feeling where everything is just going to go wrong. That’s the feeling I’m referring to – and I do not like it one bit. Rodney Parade is one of those awkward grounds where you’re unsure how the game is going to play out. Despite being eleventh in the league, the Dragons have a terrible knack of pulling off shock results.

Here’s hoping this week isn’t the same…

Ulster on Parade

Ulster are two from two in Wales so far this season, and three from three is a real possibility. And it seems Mark Anscombe wants that to be the case as he has selected a very strong side for the game. With Tommy Bowe moving to full-back, it allows Craig Gilroy to once again make a claim for a spot at wing. Declan Fitzpatrick returns after injury to play at 3, while Lewis Stevenson replaces Johann Muller at lock.

But the big news is the change at half backs, as Paul Marshall returns at 9 to partner Ruan Pienaar who moves out one to play at fly-half. An ample duo without a doubt, but not one Ulster would be looking to use much, especially with Paddy Jackson playing out of his skin.

My suspicions are that it all feeds back to Dublin. Good ol’ Declan Kidney will be sitting back in his chair, on the phone to Mark Anscombe saying, “Yeah, I want a look at Paul Marshall to see if I should add him to my squad. You must play him this week.” If this is the case, then unfortunately Ulster probably have to comply.

But before I get into a whole debate I have to remember we have a match tomorrow. Time to get down to business.

Ulster’s scrum was pushed around by Glasgow last Friday night. This is the chance for them to redeem themselves and show that they can stand up to other sides like they did in the pre-Heineken Cup games. The lineout will also be under a bit of scrutiny as well – it wasn’t as solid as it has been before.

But aside from that, this is a game where Ulster will be targeting a big win. Maybe even a bonus point win. Good teams make sure they win these games - great teams make sure they get maximum points. Ulster want to be in that great team category. A bonus point tomorrow will be another step closer to that.

As I have already said, the Dragons are not the greatest team in the world. But they cause problems. Chavhanga with his pace on the wing, Tuilagi’s power at centre, Rob Sidoli’s presence in the line-out and Toby Faletau’s might in the back row are the stand out men. All big guys, but easily stopped.

A staggering fact to finish with – Ulster have only won one of their last six games in Newport. Yep, just one. Against the fourth best region in Wales, that is a terrible stat. The side that we’ve chosen shows that we do not want it to become one from seven.

Not only that, but the unbeaten run would end. That crucial unbeaten run that makes us the team to beat. Over the next month and a half, there are two banana skin matches. This is the first one and Treviso is the other. Both are winnable. Both are losable. If the Ulster heads are in the right place, we could head to Llanelli in December with our unbeaten record still intact. Now wouldn’t that be something.

Ah, prediction time. Sometimes I wonder why I bother, since I change it every five minutes. This week my problem is whether I should risk predicting the try bonus point. Yes, I know I had that bad feeling, but I guess that’s just initial nerves. You know what – I just can’t see us getting the bonus point. Might go close, but not close enough. Prediction – Ulster by 19.

At Rodney Parade, 7:05pm

DRAGONS: 15. Tom Prydie, 14. Will Harries, 13. Adam Hughes, 12. Andy Tuilagi, 11. Tonderai Chavhanga, 10. Lewis Robling, 9. Jonathan Evans; 1. Owen Evans, 2. Steve Jones (c), 3. Nathan Buck, 4. Adam Jones, 5. Rob Sidoli, 6. Tom Brown, 7. Jevon Groves, 8. Toby Faletau.

Subs: 16. Sam Parry, 17. Nathan Williams, 18. Dan Way, 19. Ian Nimmo, 20. Nic Cudd, 21. Liam Davies, 22. Steffan Jones, 23. Pat Leach.

ULSTER: 15. Tommy Bowe, 14. Andrew Trimble, 13. Darren Cave, 12. Paddy Wallace, 11. Craig Gilroy, 10. Ruan Pienaar, 9. Paul Marshall; 1. Tom Court, 2. Rory Best, 3. Declan Fitzpatrick, 4. Lewis Stevenson, 5. Dan Tuohy, 6. Iain Henderson, 7. Chris Henry (c), 8. Nick Williams.

Subs: 16. Nigel Brady, 17. Callum Black, 18. John Afoa, 19. Mike McComish, 20. Roger Wilson, 21. Paddy Jackson, 22. Luke Marshall, 23. Jared Payne.

Referee: Peter Fitzgibbon (IRFU, 42^nd competition game)
Assistant referees: Leighton Hodges, Neil Perkins (WRU)
Citing commissioner: Russell Howard (WRU)
TMO: Neil Ballard (WRU)

Around the grounds

And so to the other games in the PRO12 this weekend...

 

Edinburgh v Scarlets –  I am so tempted to go for a home win, you never know what Edinburgh are going to do. But their European form shows us how fragile they are. The Scarlets will have the firepower. Scarlets win.

Munster v Zebre – I don’t need to explain where this will go. Munster win.

Ospreys v Connacht – Almost as open-and-shut as the Munster game, but Connacht love to give teams a scare, so there may be a chance. BIG emphasis on maybe. Ospreys win.

Leinster v Cardiff – Last year, Leinster thrashed Cardiff in the league by 43 points and in the Heineken Cup by 31 points. It’ll be something similar on Saturday. Leinster win.

Treviso v Glasgow – Glasgow were poor last week in atrocious conditions. Away in Treviso, they shouldn’t improve. Treviso are in good form and may really attack this game. Treviso win.

MY POWER WAS OUT, BUT ULSTER POWER ON

What do you do when your power goes out on the night of an Ulster match? In my case, I listen to it on the car radio!

Unfortunately that was the case on Friday night (until the power came back on at the 60 minute mark) and therefore I can’t give much insight into the game this week. You’re probably glad about that though!

Instead I’ll look at the other games and how the double-headers will shape up in December…

Still unbeaten – at a price

The main point I take from our win is the fact we’re still unbeaten and we’ve come through some tough ties to get there. On Friday night the weather was atrocious and we had to slowly grind out the win, which we did.

Chris Henry looked very good at the breakdown. With the Autumn Internationals coming up soon, surely he would be worth the risk at 7, especially with Sean O’Brien’s constant injury problems.

But the game ended on a sour note. Johann Muller will be out for up to 8 weeks with a hand injury and will miss Ulster’s next five RaboDirect PRO12 matches, and, probably more importantly, their Heineken Cup double-header against Northampton. It will be time for Lewis Stevenson to step up.

Clermont are the team to beat

I think Clermont scored enough tries to make up for the lack of them in our game. After a rather subdued first half against Exeter, the French giants sprang into life in the second and ran in five tries to lead Pool 5 by two points from Leinster.

In contrast, the defending champions spluttered to an unconvincing win over the Scarlets in Wales, and look like a shadow of the side that have won the last two Heineken Cups. Joe Schmidt’s side need to buck up their ideas or they may find themselves heading to the Aviva match needing a big win just to stand any chance of qualifying.

You feel sorry for Exeter though. Some of their play was superb and they matched Clermont blow for blow in the first half. But ultimately they didn’t have the energy and talent to keep up and ended up on the wrong end of what can only be described as a massacre.

Meanwhile, Saracens have full control of Pool 1 despite failing to secure a try bonus point against Racing Metro. Munster aren’t out of it though after crushing struggling Edinburgh, but despite achieving a full quota of points, they still don’t look completely convincing. Saracens will fancy their chances at sneaking the win in Limerick come December.

Pool 2 looks wide open after Leicester’s great win against the Ospreys. Five points makes up for them getting nothing last weekend and puts them right back in the mix. After a scare in Treviso, Toulouse came away from Italy with the win and kept themselves on top.

Toulon proved their strength by winning in Cardiff, and showing the rest of Europe that not all French sides throw the away matches to win the home ones. They have taken full control of Pool 6. In fact, the other three sides may be battling solely for second after Montpellier inflicted Sale’s first defeat of the European season.

Pool 3 looks close too, although probably only for now. Biarritz’s win over Zebre pushes them above Connacht who lost to Harlequins. Come the double-headers it should be a different matter, and the top two should pull away. Connacht look like they could cause a shock somewhere though.

December seems too far away…

Pick of the week

And as Round Two ends, what caught my eye this time…

Game of the week – Only one choice here, Leicester’s win over the Ospreys looked like it would go all the way to the wire and it did, only not in the way we thought.

Team of the week – I’m tempted to say Leicester again, but Clermont’s cold-blooded destruction of Exeter in the second half at Sandy Park was simply brilliant.

Try of the week – Leicester scythed through the Ospreys defence all day and Manu Tuilagi’s first try was a classic backs move.

Player(s) of the week – This week there weren’t many stand out performers, but Ben Youngs and Conor Murray both did very well after criticism last weekend.

Losers of the week – There isn’t any other relevant choice for this award. Won 0, lost 2, conceded 88 points, and scored 0. Edinburgh look like a team in disarray.

ULSTER AIM TO DISPOSE OF INJURY-STRICKEN WARRIORS

Glasgow come into this game with fourteen players unavailable due to injury. Yes, you read that right. Fourteen. And we thought we were bad with three back row players injured.

I’ve never started a blog post talking about the opposition first before, and I don’t plan on doing it again. But it is well worth keeping that stat in mind as you read this week.

All aboard the Heineken Cup bandwagon – next stop, the Scotstoun!

A very crucial clash

Heineken Cup pools usually come down to away games. Last season our try bonus point in Monza and losing bonus point in the Auvergne was enough to see us qualify as the second best runner up. And from there, it was history…

Not to go on about past glories or anything, but this year, there is a general sense of ‘one better’ than last year about Ulster. Certainly in the Heineken the only thing to aim for is one better than last year – and win it.

But no, there is even more than that. One better than last year – we have to win one more game away than last year. In a sense, we fluked our way through the Heineken Cup last year. Don’t get me wrong we played some remarkable rugby (home to Leicester and away in Thomond spring to mind). But having Aironi in our pool was a guaranteed ten points and managing to get Edinburgh at “home” in the semis was a godsend.

This year, the bottom ranked side takes a new form in Castres, who were duly dispatched last weekend. They shouldn’t be the easy five points away from home that Aironi were but they should be beaten.

This also means we must win in Glasgow this weekend.

And we won’t get a better chance to do it. Glasgow are severely weakened by their numerous injuries. Indeed, I don’t think we’ll ever face a side that has been so unlucky with injuries, and we wish them all the best on their recovery.

But, while bad for Glasgow and rugby, it is good for Ulster and we have to take advantage of this. Weather permitting, there are five points on offer here. Five points which could be the difference between top and second.

I am speaking rather confidently here, but whenever you boast an undefeated record going into a Heineken Cup match against an understrength team, I think I have good reason. Also, with the return of Ruan Pienaar and Nick Williams, our team goes from strength to strength.

Apart from those two changes, Ulster’s team is the same as last weekend.

This week the game will be won in the bench. And looking at the two benches, Ulster’s is the one you’d rather have. Boasting talents such as Paul Marshall, Luke Marshall and Craig Gilroy (all members of the Ireland training camp), Glasgow won’t enjoy watching those three come on late on in the second half.

And in comparison, Glasgow’s bench contains a Heineken Cup debutant, Scott Wight. They probably won’t use all of their subs, and that could prove key in which way the match swings.

And for the first time I think the weather will be a big factor. It is forecast to be wet all morning and afternoon, but it will dry up by the evening. But if this is true, the pitch will be absolutely soaking and handling will be tricky enough. This would probably suit the home side more, but Ulster will be able to adapt their play to the conditions.

So we come to the prediction. This week I’m feeling confident – but not confident enough to predict a bonus point. Glasgow are a good side, but missing so many players there should only be one result in all honesty. Prediction – Ulster by 16.

At Scotstoun Stadium, 8:00pm kick-off

GLASGOW: 15. Stuart Hogg, 14. Byron McGuigan, 13. Peter Murchie, 12. Peter Horne, 11. Alex Dunbar, 10. Ruaridh Jackson, 9. Henry Pyrgos; 1. Ryan Grant, 2. Dougie Hall, 3. Mike Cusack, 4. Tom Ryder, 5. Al Kellock (capt.), 6. Josh Strauss, 7. Chris Fusaro, 8. Ryan Wilson.

Subs: 16. Finlay Gillies, 17. Ofa Fainga’anuku, 18. Gordon Reid, 19. Tim Swinson, 20. Rob Harley, 21. John Barclay, 22. Scott Wight, 23. Niko Matawalu.

ULSTER: 15. Jared Payne, 14. Tommy Bowe, 13. Darren Cave, 12. Paddy Wallace, 11. Andrew Trimble, 10. Paddy Jackson, 9. Ruan Pienaar; 1. Tom Court, 2. Rory Best, 3. John Afoa, 4. Johann Muller (capt.), 5. Dan Tuohy, 6. Iain Henderson, 7. Chris Henry, 8. Nick Williams.

Subs: 16. Rob Herring, 17. Callum Black, 18. Adam Macklin, 19. Lewis Stevenson, 20. Mike McComish, 21. Paul Marshall, 22. Luke Marshall, 23. Craig Gilroy.

Posting my predictions
I’m annoyed that I forgot to give my predictions last week, so I’m making sure I definitely won’t miss it this week! Here they are:

Castres v Northampton – Home win

Scarlets v Leinster – Away win
Treviso v Toulouse – Away win
Saracens v Racing Metro – Home win (well, it’s in Belgium, can you call it a home win?!)
Connacht v Harlequins – Away win
Exeter v Clermont – Away win
Biarritz v Zebre – Home win
Munster v Edinburgh – Home win
Cardiff v Toulon – Away win
Leicester v Ospreys – Home win
Montpellier v Sale – Home win

ULSTER LEAVE IT LATE

Memories of the Dragons home match from last season ran through my mind as we reached the final minute of the game last night. That time it was up to Stefan Terblanche to score a last minute try to gain the bonus point. This time, it was up to another Springbok, Ruan Pienaar.

And boy did the men in white leave it late. It could have been very different…

Four tries and five points

Before I begin my analysis, I would like to point out that I did predict this scoreline on Thursday. If you don’t believe me, go back and check!

No better way to start your Heineken Cup campaign, eh? Well, we could have made the game a bit easier on ourselves by scoring the fourth try a bit earlier in the game. But I suppose the main thing is we got that try, we got five points on the board and we’ve firmly put the pressure on the other three sides.

That said, we got an immense amount of luck. With the clock in the red zone and nothing left to play for, Castres decided they wanted to run the ball (for reasons only known to them). Marcel Garvey nearly scored to justify this decision, but instead, the ball was turned over and after a quick break, Ulster had set the ball down under the posts.

While it’s nice to reflect on a bonus point win, Ulster will go back to Newforge on Monday and say to themselves, “This could have gone very badly wrong.” Because it so very nearly could have.

Castres made life very difficult for us. In the end, it probably was our own doing that nearly lost the BP for us, but Castres had their part to play. Their defence was good, their hard work at the breakdown made it hard for us to get quick ball and in general they caused us problems.

They weren’t great, no. They were there to be beaten and we did beat them. But I thought they played well enough to avoid giving away the bonus point. They shouldn’t have given away the bonus point actually, but that was their decision.

Ulster weren’t great either. Lots of errors, conceded penalties and overthrown line-outs were just some of the things that contributed to their (almost) downfall. Against any other team, that performance may not have been enough. Luckily they came up against only a semi-strong Castres side.

But there were a lot of positives Ulster can take and build on. Mainly, the quality they now have in all positions. Henderson really proved that he is top class by putting in a stellar performance at 6, while Paddy Jackson had yet another superb match at fly-half and even Luke Marshall coming off the bench proved what great prospects we have. The future of Ulster Rugby is in good hands.

Against an equally, if not better scrum than their own, John Afoa, Tom Court and Rory Best held their own and scrummaged strongly, showing that they can do it against the very best. The majority of games are won in the forward battle – those three will have to prepare for a big season.

Even though we had to wait 80 minutes for our four tries, our attack did show signs that they are close to clicking and when they do, opposing teams will have no way of stopping them. Tommy Bowe demonstrated his ability under the high ball, while Jared Payne again showed us what we missed last year with his quick line-breaks.

But what Ulster showed above everything else was guts. To keep going, even beyond the 80 minutes, and get that last try was exactly what teams of the past would not do. What that try could do for Ulster may be crucial. Whether they deserved it or not doesn’t matter – they got it.

Bring on Glasgow…

Pick of the week

So Round One is done and dusted. Here’s my take on a hectic weekend of rugby…

Game of the week – Saracens’ 45-0 demolishing of Edinburgh is worth a mention, as well as Northampton’s comeback against Glasgow, but game of the week goes to Leinster’s 9-6 win over Exeter. It was the most exciting game of the weekend, and at times during the game, you really believed Exeter could sneak it.

Team of the week – Again, Exeter come close, as do Toulouse for their controlled victory over Leicester, but the team of the week goes to Racing Metro 92 for their remarkable win over Munster in Paris.

Try of the week – Gael Fickou and Paul Marshall are contenders for their brilliant kick chases, but Eli Walker’s solo effort for the Ospreys against Treviso was pure class.

Player of the week – Again, Paul Marshall had a great game for Ulster, Richard Baxter was superb for Exeter in Dublin, while Louis Picamoles controlled the game for Toulouse. However, the player of the week goes to Olly Barkley of Racing Metro 92 who kicked the Parisian side to a famous victory over Munster.

Loser(s) of the week – A few winners here. Firstly Castres, who decided it would be a great idea to continue on after the clock had gone red in Belfast even though they had nothing to play for, just to concede a bonus point try; Conor Murray for the number of penalties he gave away in the Stade de France; Munster, who were very poor in general; Edinburgh for being turned over at home by Saracens; Glasgow, who, after taking a 15-0 lead, conceded 4 tries and 24 unanswered points to return home from Northampton with nothing; and Ben Youngs for taking a quick tap penalty from in front of the posts in the second half of the Toulouse v Leicester game. A successful kick would have taken the score to 14-12 and who knows where it would have gone from there…

ULSTER ARE READY TO SHINE AGAIN IN THE HEINEKEN

Can anybody really believe it’s nearly five months since Ulster were in Twickenham contesting their first Heineken Cup final in thirteen years? It seems like yesterday to me and hopefully there’ll be more great games (and finals!) to come for Ulster in Europe.

But this year, it all begins in Ravenhill against the French…

Eur-up for a fight

Castres will not roll over. While we all know that, it’s worth pointing it out. There is no room for complacency anywhere in the Heineken Cup – as Toulouse rudely found out in Scotland last year. Underestimate sides at your peril.

It’s not just the opposition that could worry us. Our fine home record is one which we will undoubtedly want to keep. Eleven games unbeaten in the Heineken, the pressure is on to make that twelve. And then thirteen. And then fourteen.

But Ulster have soaked up all of the pressure they’ve faced so far, and that is why they are unbeaten. Cardiff away was proof of that. Ulster will need all the guts and skill they had that night to come away with five points tomorrow.

But five points will be the last thing on Mark Anscombe’s mind at the moment. Indeed, if offered, I’m sure he would snatch at a scrappy one point win. Momentum is what you need in the Heineken Cup, and any kind of win will get that ball rolling. And once the Ulster ball is rolling, it’s very hard to stop.

So to the game itself and it will prove to be a big game in Ulster’s season.

In the PRO12 you can afford a couple of slip ups. The Scarlets have already lost twice and are only a point behind us (albeit with one more game played than us). In the Heineken Cup, once you lose, you’re on the back foot.

Ulster MUST win.

This year we don’t have Aironi to fall back on. In the last two years, we had them as a ten-pointer. This year, none of the teams would fall into that category. It’s a competitive pool.

It’s a bit of a disappointment though, that Castres will come with a weakened side. Their best team was on show last week at the Stade Pierre-Antoine against Clermont – the team playing tomorrow has 9 changes. It is rather clear where the French side’s priorities lie, and while it is good for us, it is upsetting for fans that there won’t be two full strength sides going at each other.

On a positive note, we say a big welcome back to Pedrie Wannenburg who will start at number 8 for the visitors. A loyal servant of Ulster Rugby for two years, he will be received with open arms – unless he scores against us!

In the match, they will come with a very strong scrum. It’s a typical French trait – strong scrums and drop-kicking backs. With the way our front row has been performing, I should sincerely hope this would not be an issue for us. Court, Best and Afoa form one of the top scrummaging front rows in the entire rugby world, let alone the Northern Hemisphere and it should negate the French effort.

And after mentioning the drop-kicking trait of the French, I have to highlight a Castres player who is no doubt their key man. Romain Teulet, playing at full-back can hit the target from anywhere inside the opposition half and Ulster will need the penalty count to be low. Very low.

And on the bench they have a certain Rory Kockott, who is so good, we were linked with him as a replacement for Isaac Boss. Thank goodness we got someone else…

Yes, Ruan Pienaar is back at Ravenhill for the first time this year (hooray!) and is ready to continue his fine form he showed for the Springboks. Despite the fact he will begin tomorrow’s game on the bench, we will undoubtedly see him in action in the second half.

We will be looking to put four tries away against Castres, be sure of that. But Ulster’s backline will have to show a lot more exciting play than what they did against Connacht. They were subdued for most of the night by a solid Connacht defence and will want to be let loose in the Heineken Cup. I’m hoping this will set up for a try-fest now!

So, we begin. I’m predicting Ulster will get off to a good start against a strong French side and this will set them up nicely for Glasgow next week. Deny them the losing bonus point? Yes. Bonus point for us? Hard to call. Ah, go on, it’s the Heineken Cup! Prediction – Ulster by 24 (TBP).

Ravenhill, 8pm

ULSTER

15. Jared Payne, 14. Tommy Bowe, 13. Darren Cave, 12. Paddy Wallace, 11. Andrew Trimble, 10. Paddy Jackson, 9. Paul Marshall, 8. Stephen Ferris, 7. Chris Henry, 6. Iain Henderson, 5. Dan Tuohy, 4. Johann Muller (capt.), 3. John Afoa, 2. Rory Best, 1. Tom Court.

Subs: 16. Rob Herring, 17. Callum Black, 18. Adam Macklin, 19. Lewis Stevenson, 20. Mike McComish, 21. Ruan Pienaar, 22. Luke Marshall, 23. Craig Gilroy.

CASTRES

15. Romain Teulet, 14. Marcel Garvey, 13. Seremaia Bai, 12. Daniel Kirkpatrick, 11. Marc Andreu, 10. Pierre Bernard, 9. Thierry Lacrampe, 8. Pedrie Wannenburg, 7. Yannick Caballero, 6. Piula Faasalele, 5. Rodrigo Capo Ortega, 4. Matthias Rolland, 3. Michael Coetzee, 2. Mathieu Bonello, 1. Yannick Forestier.

Subs: 16. Marc-Antoine Rallier, 17. Gregory Marmoiton, 18. Mihaita Lazar, 19. Iosefa Tekori, 20. Antonie Claassen, 21. Rory Kockott, 22. Paul Bonnefond, 23. Thomas Sanchou.

Referee: Andrew Small (RFU)

POOL OF DEATH FOR ULSTER?

Before the Heineken Cup starts, I take a quick look at what Ulster are dealing with in their pool, and where the other pools will go…

So the Heineken Cup is upon us once more and the excitement has been building dramatically. And with a new tournament, comes new questions…

Can Leinster go three in a row? Is anyone good enough to stop them? Who will top Pool Five? How will the English teams do this year? Who will be in Dublin for the final? Can Zebre get their first points ever?

These questions and more, will all be answered in due course…

Pool Four to the fore

Ulster have been in Pool Four for the last five years. Don’t ask me why, ERC just seem to love to put us there. Obviously, the number doesn’t matter a single bit. It’s the other teams in it.

First I’ll begin with a side Ulster should know very well – Glasgow. Considering they play us twice every year in the PRO12, Glasgow should have no surprises up their sleeves and we should have enough to beat them, home and away. But they do have danger men that really up their games in Europe. Ruaridh Jackson for one, a player who has just found form and will be relishing the chance to kick his side into their first ever European knockout match.

Next to a side that aren’t completely unfamiliar to Ulster – Northampton Saints. Ulster have actually only played the Saints competitively once before, and we all remember the quarter-final in Milton Keynes. That year we faced arguably one of the best sides in Europe (beaten only by Leinster). This time around I think it’s a little different. Some of Northampton’s strength has drained (as shown by their inability to qualify last season) and their confidence will undoubtedly be hit by their loss to London Irish last weekend. Will provide stiff opposition, but nothing more. We can win home and away against them if we play to our best.

And finally a team who Ulster will be firmly in the dark about. Castres have never graced Belfast with their presence and it’s up to us to make them wish they never had. Actually, that’s not true, because returning with the French outfit is Pedrie Wannenburg, a player whom we relied on the last few years to be Mr. Consistent, and he will be welcomed back with open arms. As for the threat they pose, it should be minimal. Capable of causing a shock at home, they usually roll over away. Ulster have been given a kind draw and face them away in the last pool game, a stage when they are usually out of the tournament and couldn’t care less. Home and away wins should be on the cards.

This is a pool that could be a 6 wins out of 6 pool, or a potential 3 wins out of 6 pool. Every team is strong at home, but falters away. It will more than likely come down to Ulster and Northampton, and who can get those elusive away wins that prove crucial in the Heineken Cup. In my eyes, Ulster will sneak it, but it’ll take them until the final round to secure their place…

Favourites: Ulster

Challengers: Northampton
Outsiders: Glasgow

Perusing the pools

Pool 1

Favourites: Munster – their home form in Europe is imperious and should have enough strength to see off the challenges they are faced with
Challengers: Saracens – should provide stiff opposition for Munster, but will ultimately fall short, possibly on bonus points
Outsiders: Edinburgh – last year was a flash in the pan, and while they may cause a few problems, they won’t get out of the pool

Pool 2

Favourites: Leicester – their attacking prowess should sneak them through on bonus points
Challengers: Toulouse – will miss out on bonus points and may even miss a best runner-up spot
Outsiders: Ospreys – will probably win all of their home matches but will struggle away

Pool 3

Favourites: Harlequins – this pool should be a walk in the park for the Premiership champions, even if it does include the Amlin champions as well
Challengers: Biarritz – won’t be strong enough to challenge Quins, will look to reach the knock-outs via second place
Outsiders: Connacht – only outsiders because the other team in the pool is Zebre, won’t pose much of a threat

Pool 5

Favourites: Leinster – tricky pool for the defending champions but should just sneak through, probably on bonus points
Challengers: Clermont – one of the strongest teams but have found a difficult pool once again, will find themselves in a battle to reach the knock-outs through best runners-up
Outsiders: Scarlets – full of quality, unfortunately in a tough pool and will falter

Pool 6
Favourites: Toulon – best team in a poor pool, will go through but find knock-out matches hard going
Challengers: Cardiff – two away matches in France will be their downfall and will cost them a place in the Amlin
Outsiders: Montpellier – good at home, but lack the quality to win away

ULSTER BEAT CON-NAUGHT

You have to go back to 2009 for the last time Ulster shut out their opposition (Glasgow at Ravenhill, 12-0). In front of a sell-out crowd at Ravenhill last night, Ulster did that again, and treated fans to three tries as well in a satisfying run out for the Heineken Cup next weekend.

But there was no denying Ulster’s dominance. It resulted in their opponents only having possession in Ulster’s 22 three or four times during the entire 80 minutes and most of the play occurred in the Connacht half.

Certainly if Ulster play like that against Castres next week then there should be only one result. That said, Mark Anscombe will be worried about the back line’s inability to secure a try bonus point which could be vital when it comes to April. For all the possession and territory the Ulstermen had, to only score three tries is probably not good enough, and may not be next Friday.

Now, don’t get me wrong, we created chances. In fact, the amount of chances created was probably around quadruple the number scored. But in the end it was old demons that came back to haunt us with a dropped pass or a slip spurning the opportunity.

To be fair, we probably have to give a bit of credit to the Connacht defence. At the start of the second half they defended like their lives depended on it and they came away with the rewards. Even though they didn’t get on the scoreboard, they fully played their part in the match and denied the hosts the full quota of points.

But what Ulster’s attack lacked, their defence made up for it. With no points conceded at all, and minimal yardage losses, the management will no doubt be happy in that aspect. Every time a green shirt ran at the Ulster line, a white shirt opposed him and hauled him down. Defence like that wins matches and it will be tested thoroughly throughout the year.

The scrum once again emphasised its strength with the awarding of the penalty try at the end of the first half, although it then seemed to lose its first half dominance in the second 40. At half time, Ulster director of rugby David Humphreys said they were building a game based around the set piece. But it will receive its first big test next week against Castres, renowned for their strong scrummaging, as are every French side.

The return of Rory Best was a joy to behold after his injury and he returned to a solid 60 minutes at hooker, continuing the strength in the scrum and line-out throwing as well. Tommy Bowe’s first game at Ravenhill in an Ulster shirt since his return from Wales was also good to see and he had a few good runs showing he is ready to score plenty of tries for his new side.

But, once again, it was the New Zealander at no. 8 who was the star man for Ulster and if there’s any better way to prove your doubters wrong than to be man of the match in four of your first five matches, then it hasn’t been found yet. The unfortunate image near the end of the match of him limping off was a blow. While the extent of the injury is unknown at this stage, the entire Ulster fan base will be hoping for a speedy recovery ahead of our European adventure. He may be a pivotal player.

Yesterday I said this game was probably going to be used more as a warm-up match for the game next weekend, and I think this was probably right. There were a lot of moves tried, a lot of moves failed, but a lot of moves worked. Anscombe and the players will go away and work on these for the Heineken Cup. The countdown begins now.

Tonight we learned Connacht are no pushovers. They stood up and withstood everything that Ulster threw at them and rightly prevented the league leaders from getting all five points. But on a sour note, we know we have to cut out those small errors that prevented us from getting that bonus point. Next week we may not be so lucky…

I can’t bear it!

OK, what on earth happened to Sparky? It looks like somebody replaced him with Mickey Mouse and spray-painted him brown! Ulster have a lot of explaining to do…

Bring back our bear!!!

CONNACHT COME TO TOWN

Today I preview Ulster’s final game before the Heineken Cup and report on a meeting with the guys…

I’m running out of puns for my titles.

Anyway, enough of my problems – on to the match!

Connacht are travelling up north this week, looking to build on what was a fairly remarkable victory last weekend against Leinster. And they will be looking to add another remarkable victory to their list…

Five not out?

Yes, Ulster are aiming for their fifth win in a row. I’m still not sure if I comprehend how great an achievement this is, considering the teams we’ve beaten (and their finishing positions last year) – Glasgow (4^th), Ospreys (winners), Munster (3^rd), Cardiff (7^th).

And you know what they say – winning is the best way to improve morale. Who can blame Anscombe for what he’s done so far? His policies of rotation and play by form have certainly paid off and we’ve now unmasked some unbelievable raw potential in players such as Luke Marshall, Mike Allen and Chris Farrell.

In fact, Luke Marshall is probably going to be on the bench for the Castres match next weekend. Anscombe has to take a lot of the credit for that.

So we come to Connacht – or rather, Connacht come to us. Indeed, they come to us on the back of the biggest high they could possibly have had. Hammering Leinster with a bonus point, and sending them back to D4 with nothing.

You can look into it all you want and bring up the strength (or lack of strength) of the Leinster side, or the ‘home comforts’ of the Sportsground. Whatever way you look at it, that was a good win for the Galway side.

They should not be underestimated. This is a team that has Dan Parks in its ranks – a world class fly half and one of the best signings Connacht have ever made. And we all know what Willie Faloon (captain today) is capable of. Connacht will come at us with fire in their bellies and with the will to win.

But the difference this week is that Connacht will face a side that is a lot stronger than the one they took on last week. Tommy Bowe has shown he hasn’t lost any of his talent from last season, Paddy Jackson is starting to show why he was given the starting berth in the Heineken Cup final last season and Nick Williams is like a runaway train – unstoppable.

Ulster’s scrum has been virtually impossible to square up against so far this season. Tom Court, Nigel Brady and John Afoa have been destroying front rows across Britain, and the reintroduction of Rory Best will only strengthen that.

In many cases, this will be like a pre-season match. Ulster will be using this game to give the 1^st XV a chance to gel before the Heineken Cup begins again. Although the matter at hand is the Connacht match, no-one can deny that there will be one eye on the Castres game and a bit of planning will already have been done.

I can only see one result here, and I sincerely hope my prediction will be right. With a full team back and the Ravenhill crowd behind them, Ulster should walk this (emphasis on the should) and I would hope the win would include four tries. Although the weather may intervene on the visitor’s part…

Prediction – Ulster by 22 (with a try bonus point)

At Ravenhill, 7:05pm kick-off

ULSTER: 15. Jared Payne, 14. Tommy Bowe, 13. Darren Cave, 12. Paddy Wallace, 11. Andrew Trimble, 10. Paddy Jackson, 9. Paul Marshall; 1. Tom Court, 2. Rory Best, 3. John Afoa, 4. Johann Muller (c), 5. Dan Tuohy, 6. Stephen Ferris, 7. Chris Henry, 8. Nick Williams.

Subs: 16. Rob Herring, 17. Callum Black, 18. Adam Macklin, 19. Lewis Stevenson, 20. Mike McComish, 21. Michael Heaney, 22. Luke Marshall, 23. Craig Gilroy.

CONNACHT: 15. Robbie Henshaw, 14. Tiernan O’Halloran, 13. Eoin Griffin, 12. Dave McSharry, 11. Fetu’u Vainokolo, 10. Dan Parks, 9. Keiran Marmion; 1. Brett Wilkinson, 2. Adrian Flavin, 3. Ronan Loughney, 4. Michael Swift, 5. Mike McCarthy, 6. Dave Gannon, 7. Willie Faloon (c), 8. George Naoupu.

Subs: 16. Jason Harris-Wright, 17. Denis Buckley, 18. Nathan White, 19. John Muldoon, 20. Johnny O’Connor, 21. Dave Moore, 22. Miah Nikora, 23. Mata Fifita

Referee: George Clancy (IRFU)

Assistant referees: Brian MacNeice, Eanna O’Dowd (both IRFU)

Citing commissioner: Eugene Ryan (IRFU)

TMO: Kevin Beggs (IRFU)

Stars in the House

The House of Fraser in Victoria Square was the venue for the latest Ulster meet ‘n’ greet on Tuesday night – and the Hound paid the players a quick visit.

In attendance were Jared Payne, John Afoa, Roger Wilson, Adam Macklin, Darren Cave and Tom Court (who was sporting a very trim looking moustache!).

Roger Wilson’s spell on the sidelines isn’t going to end any time soon, according to the man himself, he says he is hoping to be back in two weeks, not in time for the Heineken Cup matches. However, he says he is happy with the job Nick Williams is doing and knows it will be a tough ask to get into the side!

The boys were in great spirits after the win in Cardiff, but Jared Payne admitted his try was very lucky and he just got the bounce!

And John Afoa still insists his beard is the best at the club!

Around the grounds

After last week’s predictions, I have decided instead simply to state the winner. Where will the wins go this weekend?

Zebre vs. Ospreys – Zebre have had a few good efforts at beating the Ospreys in the past and will take heart from Treviso’s win earlier this year. But the Ospreys have found form at the right time and this should be no problem. Winners - Ospreys

Scarlets vs. Dragons – Our nearest challengers should have the edge in this Welsh derby and they will want to end a run of two straight defeats. They should do that. Winners – Scarlets

Edinburgh vs. Treviso – Edinburgh have found great form, winning matches convincingly. That said, I like the look of Treviso this year and I don’t want to rule them out. Expect this to be close. Winners – Edinburgh

Leinster vs. Munster – The ‘Big One’, the ‘Feva in the Aviva’ is upon us. Leinster aren’t Leinster at the moment, I think even their fans will admit that. But Munster aren’t on top form either and Leinster are always at their best in and around European stage. They’ll sneak it. Winner – Leinster

Cardiff vs. Glasgow – Despite their mauling by us last week, Cardiff will learn their lesson. Will it be enough to beat Glasgow? I don’t think so. Winner – Glasgow