ULSTER AIM TO DISPOSE OF INJURY-STRICKEN WARRIORS

Glasgow come into this game with fourteen players unavailable due to injury. Yes, you read that right. Fourteen. And we thought we were bad with three back row players injured.

I’ve never started a blog post talking about the opposition first before, and I don’t plan on doing it again. But it is well worth keeping that stat in mind as you read this week.

All aboard the Heineken Cup bandwagon – next stop, the Scotstoun!

A very crucial clash

Heineken Cup pools usually come down to away games. Last season our try bonus point in Monza and losing bonus point in the Auvergne was enough to see us qualify as the second best runner up. And from there, it was history…

Not to go on about past glories or anything, but this year, there is a general sense of ‘one better’ than last year about Ulster. Certainly in the Heineken the only thing to aim for is one better than last year – and win it.

But no, there is even more than that. One better than last year – we have to win one more game away than last year. In a sense, we fluked our way through the Heineken Cup last year. Don’t get me wrong we played some remarkable rugby (home to Leicester and away in Thomond spring to mind). But having Aironi in our pool was a guaranteed ten points and managing to get Edinburgh at “home” in the semis was a godsend.

This year, the bottom ranked side takes a new form in Castres, who were duly dispatched last weekend. They shouldn’t be the easy five points away from home that Aironi were but they should be beaten.

This also means we must win in Glasgow this weekend.

And we won’t get a better chance to do it. Glasgow are severely weakened by their numerous injuries. Indeed, I don’t think we’ll ever face a side that has been so unlucky with injuries, and we wish them all the best on their recovery.

But, while bad for Glasgow and rugby, it is good for Ulster and we have to take advantage of this. Weather permitting, there are five points on offer here. Five points which could be the difference between top and second.

I am speaking rather confidently here, but whenever you boast an undefeated record going into a Heineken Cup match against an understrength team, I think I have good reason. Also, with the return of Ruan Pienaar and Nick Williams, our team goes from strength to strength.

Apart from those two changes, Ulster’s team is the same as last weekend.

This week the game will be won in the bench. And looking at the two benches, Ulster’s is the one you’d rather have. Boasting talents such as Paul Marshall, Luke Marshall and Craig Gilroy (all members of the Ireland training camp), Glasgow won’t enjoy watching those three come on late on in the second half.

And in comparison, Glasgow’s bench contains a Heineken Cup debutant, Scott Wight. They probably won’t use all of their subs, and that could prove key in which way the match swings.

And for the first time I think the weather will be a big factor. It is forecast to be wet all morning and afternoon, but it will dry up by the evening. But if this is true, the pitch will be absolutely soaking and handling will be tricky enough. This would probably suit the home side more, but Ulster will be able to adapt their play to the conditions.

So we come to the prediction. This week I’m feeling confident – but not confident enough to predict a bonus point. Glasgow are a good side, but missing so many players there should only be one result in all honesty. Prediction – Ulster by 16.

At Scotstoun Stadium, 8:00pm kick-off

GLASGOW: 15. Stuart Hogg, 14. Byron McGuigan, 13. Peter Murchie, 12. Peter Horne, 11. Alex Dunbar, 10. Ruaridh Jackson, 9. Henry Pyrgos; 1. Ryan Grant, 2. Dougie Hall, 3. Mike Cusack, 4. Tom Ryder, 5. Al Kellock (capt.), 6. Josh Strauss, 7. Chris Fusaro, 8. Ryan Wilson.

Subs: 16. Finlay Gillies, 17. Ofa Fainga’anuku, 18. Gordon Reid, 19. Tim Swinson, 20. Rob Harley, 21. John Barclay, 22. Scott Wight, 23. Niko Matawalu.

ULSTER: 15. Jared Payne, 14. Tommy Bowe, 13. Darren Cave, 12. Paddy Wallace, 11. Andrew Trimble, 10. Paddy Jackson, 9. Ruan Pienaar; 1. Tom Court, 2. Rory Best, 3. John Afoa, 4. Johann Muller (capt.), 5. Dan Tuohy, 6. Iain Henderson, 7. Chris Henry, 8. Nick Williams.

Subs: 16. Rob Herring, 17. Callum Black, 18. Adam Macklin, 19. Lewis Stevenson, 20. Mike McComish, 21. Paul Marshall, 22. Luke Marshall, 23. Craig Gilroy.

Posting my predictions
I’m annoyed that I forgot to give my predictions last week, so I’m making sure I definitely won’t miss it this week! Here they are:

Castres v Northampton – Home win

Scarlets v Leinster – Away win
Treviso v Toulouse – Away win
Saracens v Racing Metro – Home win (well, it’s in Belgium, can you call it a home win?!)
Connacht v Harlequins – Away win
Exeter v Clermont – Away win
Biarritz v Zebre – Home win
Munster v Edinburgh – Home win
Cardiff v Toulon – Away win
Leicester v Ospreys – Home win
Montpellier v Sale – Home win