ULSTER'S ITALIAN JOB - PART 2

Ulster have never lost in Italy. They were minutes away from that record being broken last Sunday, and last season at the Stadio di Monigo it was almost a similar story, but for a last minute try.

And the Monigo is where Ulster find themselves once again in another crucial PRO12 match. In fact, all of Ulster’s matches these days are turning into crucial matches – because the unbeaten run is still intact. With every match won, the stakes get higher and higher.

Anybody fancy a trip to Milan?

United colours of Benetton Treviso

Speaking about the unbeaten run, if it continues this weekend, and results go our way, we could head to Llanelli next Sunday with a 10 point lead in the PRO12. That is a very attractive prospect.

But let’s not think about that. There’s 80 minutes of rugby to go first and it’s not a guaranteed win, by any stretch of the imagination. Treviso always provide stiff opposition and are the PRO12 ‘bogey’ team – the side you expect to beat, but then come unstuck against. They are one of the more annoying teams in the league. Of course, that’s just my opinion. But after last weekend’s difficulties, you would think Ulster would be dreading another Italian encounter.

Or actually, it could be a blessing in disguise. Ulster have an extra week of training, preparation and (most importantly) match experience under their belts due to the rearranged Zebre match. They didn’t return to Northern Ireland during the week. And even though Ulster are missing a lot of their first team players, their opponents are as well – 16 of their team are also away for the Autumn Internationals with Italy.

You would like to believe that this stat then means it will be an easy match for Ulster. Not a chance. Treviso boast a strong pack, bolstered from the back by the experienced duo of lock Valerio Bernabo and second row Cornelius van Zyl. Along the back line they boast ex-Italian international Fabio Semenzato at scrum-half and also Japanese international Christian Loamanu at centre. This is a side that will take some beating.

But there is one thing that Ulster have that Treviso don’t – Mark Anscombe. After the Zebre performance, Anscombe admitted his side weren’t as good as they could be and that they “got out of jail”, both of which are true.

What he communicated to his players this week will probably have been very different.

Back in New Zealand, Anscombe was known as the coach who told it as it was – if you played badly, he let you know about it. This will work in Ulster’s favour. Since Anscombe arrived he has adopted a strict policy of play-by-form – if you’re not playing well, you’re out of the team. Undoubtedly, this will have been mentioned to the players this week, and not only are they now playing for the win, they are playing for their positions. A bit of healthy competition won’t do anybody any harm.

Still undefeated, Ulster will head to Treviso looking to keep it that way. They may not be as high on confidence as they have been in previous weeks, but that shouldn’t matter – as I have said, Anscombe will have sorted that out.

I’m not feeling completely confident this week but I’m still going for Ulster. Like last weekend there should be only one score in it and the game will go all the way to the wire – and actually I’m going to predict the same score as last week. C’mon Ulster! Prediction: Ulster by 6.

TREVISO: 15. Brendan Williams, 14. Giulio Toniolatti, 13. Christian Loamanu, 12. Andy Vilk, 11. Ludovico Nitoglia, 10. Alberto di Bernardo, 9. Fabio Semenzato; 1. Matteo Muccignat, 2. Franco Sbaraglini, 3. Jacobus Roux, 4. Marco Fuser, 5. Cornelius van Zyl (c), 6. Valerio Bernabo, 7. Paul Derbyshire, 8. Marco Filippucci.

16. Enrico Ceccato, 17. Giovanni Maistri, 18. Ignacio Fernandez-Rouyet, 19. Filippo Giusti, 20. Andrea Pratichetti, 21. Angelo Esposito, 22. James Ambrosini, 23. Luca Morisi.

ULSTER: 15. Peter Nelson, 14. Andrew Trimble, 13. Jared Payne, 12. Paddy Wallace, 11. Mike Allen, 10. Niall O’Connor, 9. Paul Marshall; 1. Tom Court, 2. Rob Herring, 3. Declan Fitzpatrick, 4. Robbie Diack, 5. Neil McComb, 6. Nick Williams, 7. Mike McComish, 8. Roger Wilson (c).

16. Nigel Brady, 17. Callum Black, 18. John Afoa, 19. James Simpson, 20. Ali Birch, 21. Michael Heaney, 22. Stuart Olding, 23. Chris Cochrane.

Referee: Peter Allan (SRU, 49^th competition game)

Touch judges: Andrea Spadoni, Stefano Traversi (both FIR)
Citing commissioner: Alberto Recaldini (FIR)
TMO: Stefano Marama (FIR)

Argy bargy at the Aviva

For the first time in my life I am going to praise Declan Kidney on his selection policies. Because he has finally realised the quality of Craig Gilroy and has awarded him with his first full Ireland cap by starting him on Saturday. It’s nothing more than the youngster deserves. His brilliant play for Ulster this season means he is there by merit and, coupled with the signing of a new long-term contract yesterday, this is turning out to be a very good week for the 21-year-old.

The match itself is very interesting in terms of World Ranking points. If Ireland win, they are more or less guaranteed to be in Band Two for the 2015 World Cup draw, giving them a (supposedly) easier group to face. If they lose, then their fate is in other teams’ hands, mainly Wales and Scotland.

If the Irish play to their full potential then it should be a home win. But anything below perfect and the Argentinian machine will punish them. Wales felt the full force of their raw power two weeks ago and Ireland don’t want to be their second victims. Time for the boys in green to show the rugby world exactly what they’re made of.

Will they? I think so. Prediction – Ireland by 8.

Around the grounds

Just very quickly this week since I’ve taken up its usual space with the Ireland section:

Dragons v Connacht – Home win

Edinburgh v Ospreys – Away win (TBP)
Glasgow v Leinster – Away win
Zebre v Blues – Home win
Munster v Scarlets – Home win