BACK TO BUSINESS

Ulster haven’t beaten Leinster since October 2009. Fact.

What better time to get rid of that slump than now? After an embarrassment last weekend, Mark Anscombe has named a strong side in an attempt to get back to winning ways, and to beat Leinster would be the best cure for their poor performance.

The PRO12 returns in some style…

White Knights vs. Boys in Blue

This time last season, it was Leinster who were making all the headlines, tearing up Europe’s best sides with some brilliant attacking play – they were sprinting away at the top of the league and were firmly in place to get a home quarter-final in the Heineken Cup. Sound familiar?

Ulster are basically the same this season, only better. With only one loss in fourteen games they are top of the PRO12 with a nine point cushion, and, despite that loss to Northampton, they are still among the favourites to secure a home quarter-final.

Are we seeing a power shift in Irish rugby? I was asked that by a friend earlier in the week and I responded, rather hastily, “No, Leinster will come back from this. They’re too good.” I still stick by that. Leinster are a class team, on and off the field. Their play on the field is remarkable – the way they cut through teams with ease is incredible and off the field, the way they stood by Ulster after the Nevin Spence tragedy was so reassuring that rugby has got its priorities right.

That’s not to say that Ulster aren’t a real threat now – they are. But I still believe that if a neutral was looking for an Irish team to back to win a trophy, they would go for Leinster. They know how to win, they have to ability to grind out those wins from games that seem to have gotten away from them and they have all the talent needed to compete on two fronts.

Ulster are not far away from that though, and although Leinster are the team they emulate at this time, this is not the test they will be looking at most. No, that accolade will have to wait until the rematch in March at the RDS, when both sides will have their full strength teams out ahead of the European action the following weekend.

That will be the first test – how well Ulster’s first team is. The second test will also be in the league, but in a different way – the table. Where Ulster finish in the PRO12 table will be the judge of how far their squad depth has come, and that is how Leinster have been so successful over the years. They can rotate at will and still have a competitive side, something which will be evident this weekend.

For they have made eight changes from the side that lost to Clermont Auvergne last weekend in the Aviva Stadium and still look like a powerful side – especially in the scrum, which boasts plenty of stars, all of which have been capped by Ireland at some point in their careers. And it looks like that is the area where Joe Schmidt is targeting the home side.

The backs are just as good with three more internationals lining up there – Eoin Reddan, Fergus McFadden and Gordon D’Arcy. Ian Madigan is an exciting prospect at 10 and Andrew Conway is another one to watch out for on the wing, with plenty of pace.

But Ulster have internationals of their own, especially in the backs where there are three Ireland caps and one Springbok cap. Craig Gilroy will match Conway’s pace on the wing, and it will be a case of youth vs. experience when Luke Marshall takes on Gordon D’Arcy in midfield. The forwards have a more inexperienced look however. With three locks and a flanker unavailable for selection, it is a case of ‘make do and mend’ for Anscombe who has to play Iain Henderson at 4 again alongside Neil McComb, while Robbie Diack comes into the back row for Roger Wilson.

All in all you could say that the two sides are missing six players from their ‘strongest’ sides so they are probably even. But there is one factor that works in Ulster’s favour – the Ravenhill factor. Last weekend the atmosphere went rather flat when the Ulstermen went behind. Tomorrow, the fans will have to get behind the team from the start in an attempt to get the side back to winning ways.

It’s been three years since Ulster last defeated Leinster. Since then the two sides have met seven times, and Leinster have come out on top every single time. Will that run end tomorrow? It’ll be close as I believe the scrum battle may be won by the Dubliners, and that is a big victory for them. But I think Ulster have the backs to do the damage and just creep away with the win. Prediction – Ulster by 5.

At Ravenhill

Friday 21^st December, 19:05
Live on BBC2 NI and RTE TWO

ULSTER

15. Jared Payne, 14. Andrew Trimble, 13. Darren Cave, 12. Luke Marshall, 11. Craig Gilroy, 10. Paddy Jackson, 9. Ruan Pienaar; 1. Tom Court, 2. Rory Best, 3. John Afoa, 4. Iain Henderson, 5. Neil McComb, 6. Robbie Diack, 7. Chris Henry (c), 8. Nick Williams.

16. Rob Herring, 17. Callum Black, 18. Adam Macklin, 19. Alan O’Connor, 20. Roger Wilson, 21. Paul Marshall, 22. Paddy Wallace, 23. Adam D’Arcy

LEINSTER

15. Noel Reid, 14. Andrew Conway, 13. Brendan Macken, 12. Gordon D’Arcy, 11. Fergus McFadden, 10. Ian Madigan, 9. Eoin Reddan; 1. Cian Healy, 2. Sean Cronin, 3. Michael Bent, 4. Leo Cullen (c), 5. Devin Toner, 6. Kevin McLaughlin, 7. Sean O’Brien, 8. Jamie Heaslip.

16. Aaron Dundon, 17. Heinke van der Merwe, 18. Jamie Hagan, 19. Tom Denton, 20. Rhys Ruddock, 21. Isaac Boss, 22. Andrew Goodman, 23. Adam Byrne.

Referee: George Clancy (IRFU)

Assistant referees: Peter Fitzgibbon, Olly Hodges (IRFU)
Citing commissioner: John Cole (IRFU)
TMO: Dermot Moloney (IRFU)

Around the grounds

Only four other games in the PRO12 this weekend. How will they finish?

Blues vs. Scarlets – Away win

Glasgow vs. Edinburgh – Home win
Zebre vs. Treviso – Away win
Connacht vs. Munster – Away win