And they have qualified for the Heineken Cup
quarter-finals for the third year in a row – only this year they’ve achieved it
one game earlier. It’s a nice feeling for Ulster fans everywhere knowing they
have a knockout game to look forward to in April. But the job is only half
done. Now they have to secure a home quarter-final at Ravenhill – that could be
the difference between making the semis and not.
It might be out of their hands though…
Superb
Saracens
Saracens were incredible, for all the wrong
reasons. I know this is all about Ulster, but I feel I have to give them a lot
of credit for the way they hung in against Racing Metro in Nantes and eventually
came away with the win. They have the boot of Owen Farrell to thank – he
slotted over ten penalties and a conversion for 32 points which was what gave
them the win.
But it wasn’t really Saracens’ brilliance
that won them the game. Rather, it was Racing’s poor discipline that cost them
the four points. Despite racing (pun intended) over for three tries in the
first 20 minutes, they couldn’t capitalise on their early lead and seemed
determined to lose the match, conceding far too many kickable penalties.
And that leads me on nicely to what needs to
happen next week for Ulster to secure that vital home quarter-final because it looks like it will only
involve those two sides: Ulster and Saracens.
I’m going to make the assumption that
Saracens will beat Edinburgh. I know a lot can happen in the Heineken Cup, but
the two sides are near opposites as far as Heineken Cup exploits go. One is top
of their pool, aiming for a quarter-final place. The other hasn’t got a point
yet, and only scored their first try last week in Round Five. Saracens should
have this one won.
So then it all comes down to Ulster and what
they do. Unfortunately Saracens have two big advantages already before the
games have even begun. The first is that they are at home. The second is that
they play after Ulster, on the Sunday, which means that they will know what they
have to do before they step on the pitch, whereas Ulster will simply have to go
out and hope for the best.
Let’s start with the obvious way Ulster can
get the home quarter – a bonus point win. If Ulster manage to secure the four
tries and come away with the win on Saturday afternoon then they cannot be
caught by anyone. However, away to Castres is never an easy game – especially
when a side has as many injuries as Ulster do. This seems rather unlikely.
What does seem more likely is simply winning
in Castres, which is highly possible. If that happens, then it all comes down
to Vicarage Road on Sunday. If Saracens get the bonus point in their match then
they will qualify ahead of Ulster. If not, then it will be Ulster who get that fourth
seed spot.
If Ulster lose or draw then their destiny is
well and truly out of their hands. Needless to say, only a win will do, with
Toulouse, Leicester and Saracens all so close behind them. It’s do or die time
for Ulster – if they want to have the best chance of getting to the final then
a home quarter-final should be high on their list of priorities.
However that task has been made harder by the
news that Nick Williams will be out for eight weeks through injury. Combined
with injuries to Stephen Ferris, Johann Muller, Dan Tuohy, Tommy Bowe and a
host of others, Ulster are weakened no ends. If they can acquire a home quarter-final
then a lot of the credit should go to Mark Anscombe – the players seem to have
adapted to his coaching style with ease and he has also brought through a lot
of fringe players to be solid back-ups – a key to long-term success.
Next week will define Ulster’s Heineken Cup
hopes. Let’s hope they’re still high by Sunday afternoon…
Irish
highs, lows and in-betweens…
Leinster are, incredibly, halfway to the
Great Escape. Seemingly out of the Heineken Cup after their double-header loss
to Clermont back in December, the Dubliners set out with a steely determination
to get 10 points that would give them a chance of making the quarter-finals,
and smashed the Scarlets 33-14, notching up five tries. If they can get a bonus
point against Exeter next week, then who knows? They might just make the
knockouts.
On the flipside, Connacht were hit for six.
For a while it seemed they would give Pool Three leaders Harlequins a run for
their money. It wasn’t to be and they eventually limped home nursing the wounds
of a 47-8 defeat. It knocks the Galway side out of the competition and means
they can only focus on qualifying for the Amlin Challenge Cup – although they
would require a try bonus point against Zebre, and for Biarritz to get nothing
against Harlequins too.
And finally, it was a case of too little too
late for Munster as, although they were victorious in Murrayfield on Sunday
afternoon, they realistically needed a try bonus point to give themselves the
best chance of qualifying for the quarter-finals. They will now feel the
pressure on Sunday as they must get that try bonus point against Racing Metro
at Thomond Park in order to stand a chance of going through. However, if both
Leinster and Montpellier win on Saturday, the former with a bonus point, it may
not even be enough…
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