ALLEZ LES VERTS!

Ulster are off this week (sadly) so it looks like we’ll have to settle for international games instead, but luckily this week we have a cracker at the Aviva. It’s a game that only last year could have been a straight shoot-out for the championship, but this year both sides find themselves struggling.

In fact, whoever loses will be facing a Wooden Spoon match next weekend. Ireland could face a straight shoot-out for bottom spot in Rome against Italy, while France would have to avoid defeat away to Scotland in order to avoid finishing bottom of the Six Nations for the first time in the history of the competition.

There’s two ways this game could go…

Two teams, one loser

You would probably have expected me to say ‘one winner’ instead of ‘one loser’ yeah? Wrong. Being brutally honest, this match means absolutely nothing for the winner – both sides are out of the running for the overall championship. The only thing that the winner will get is the security that they cannot finish last in the table, and that’s not really much of a consolation.

As for the loser, as I mentioned, they will face a game next week that they didn’t want to face – a game to avoid finishing last. In fact, if France lose tomorrow then it will be a match they must win simply to get a point on the board!

So that makes tomorrow’s game even more important for both sides. And in my opinion there will be two ways this match will play out, if both sides realise they must win – it will either be a scrappy, low-scoring affair, or a game in which both sides will go all out for it.

All you have to do is watch French club rugby and you’ll realise that Les Bleus love to play an expansive running game, no matter what the weather. The selection of Toulouse utility back Maxime Medard would also suggest they are looking to play an exciting attacking brand of rugby. Medard is a player you don’t want running at you in a match near the try line.

In fact, the French side is stocked full of great players in all positions. Look no further than their inside centre Wesley Fofana who is arguably the best 12 in the world right now. They also have riches of talent at scrum-half as well with the choice between two fantastic players – Maxime Machenaud or Morgan Parra. They even have Freddie Michalak who can slot in there too.

But it is in the back row that France really have the upper hand. Their back three are undoubtedly one of the best back row combinations in the world, if not the best – Yannick Nyanga, Thierry Dusautoir and Louis Picamoles. Those three will completely dominate the breakdown tomorrow and unless the Irish back row is on top form, it could be a long evening for the guys in green.

Enough about France however, it is time to focus on the Irish because this is possibly the biggest match they have faced in the Six Nations so far – for the wrong reasons.

They are lucky that Cian Healy is back because he holds up the Irish scrum. Against Scotland, first Tom Court, then David Kilcoyne were both pulverised in the scrum. Having Healy back is a real boost for Ireland and will hopefully solidify their scrum. As usual, the side in the ascendancy at the set piece will usually go on and win.

But it will also be a big test for Paddy Jackson. After coming off the back of a horror kicking show against Scotland, it will be crucial for him to play well and reassure Ireland fans that he is the man for the job. If he plays the same way as he did two weeks ago out of hand then he will be fine, but his goal kicking must improve.

In my opinion, it is also Declan Kidney’s last chance to try and keep his job if it hasn’t gone already. Lose and I don’t think there’s any way back for the Cork man. Win, and he may stand a chance of being kept on as coach. However, it may not even be enough just to win. Losing at home to England, and then losing to Scotland too has probably hammered the final nails in his coffin. He has taken Ireland as far as he can.

I’m struggling at a prediction as I don’t know how the match will go this weekend. If it is a tight match then I’m leaning towards Ireland. A wide running match would suggest it will be a France win. In all honesty I should go for a draw! However, I will predict that home advantage will shade it for the Irishmen. Prediction – Ireland by 5.

Teams

Ireland make three personnel changes to the side that lost to Scotland two weeks ago. Craig Gilroy misses out through injury so he is replaced by Fergus McFadden on the wing. Cian Healy has had his ban overturned so he is back to take his place at loosehead prop, as is Mike McCarthy who returns from injury to play again at lock.

France also make three personnel changes, the most surprising being a recall for out of form fly-half Frederic Michalak, who replaces Francois Trinh-Duc. Maxime Medard makes his first start for the national side for nearly two years at wing in place of Benjamin Fall who drops out of the 23 altogether. The only other change is at centre with Florian Fritz coming in for Mathieu Bastareaud who drops to the bench. The forwards are unchanged from the match against England.

Ireland vs. France

Saturday 9^th March, 17:00

Aviva Stadium, Dublin

Six Nations, Round 4

Live on BBC1 and RTE TWO

IRELAND

15. Rob Kearney, 14. Fergus McFadden, 13. Brian O’Driscoll, 12. Luke Marshall, 11. Keith Earls, 10. Paddy Jackson, 9. Conor Murray; 1. Cian Healy, 2. Rory Best, 3. Mike Ross, 4. Mike McCarthy, 5. Donnacha Ryan, 6. Peter O’Mahony, 7. Sean O’Brien, 8. Jamie Heaslip (c).

16. Sean Cronin, 17. David Kilcoyne, 18. Stephen Archer, 19. Donncha O’Callaghan, 20. Iain Henderson, 21. Eoin Reddan, 22. Ian Madigan, 23. Luke Fitzgerald.

FRANCE

15. Yoann Huget, 14. Vincent Clerc, 13. Florian Fritz, 12. Wesley Fofana, 11. Maxime Medard, 10. Frederic Michalak, 9. Morgan Parra; 1. Thomas Domingo, 2. Benjamin Kayser, 3. Nicolas Mas, 4. Christophe Samson, 5. Yoann Maestri, 6. Yannick Nyanga, 7. Thierry Dusautoir (c), 8. Louis Picamoles.

16. Guilhem Guirado, 17. Vincent Debaty, 18. Luc Ducalcon, 19. Sebastien Vahaamahina, 20. Antonie Claassen, 21. Maxime Machenaud, 22. Francois Trinh-Duc, 23. Mathieu Bastareaud.

Referee: Steve Walsh (Australia)

Assistant Referees: Wayne Barnes, Greg Garner (both England)

TMO: Nigel Whitehouse (Wales)

Assessor: Clayton Thomas (Wales)