PREDICTING THE PRO12

Alright, I won’t deny it – losing, even in a friendly, is painful, and Saturday was no exception. I’ll admit I didn’t see (or hear) the game live, but from what I have read about the game is that it was much of the same as the Leinster match – too many dropped passes or forward passes, and that the scoreline probably didn’t do us justice.

Anyway, there is no point in dwelling on the past, especially when it’s just a pre-season friendly which count for just a little more than diddly squat in rugby terms. Mark Anscombe will be far more interested in his side’s performance than what the result was. Usually the two tell similar stories, but in friendlies sometimes they can actually be a bit different.

But that is not what I will focus on this week though, because there is something slightly more important at hand:

THE PRO12 RETURNS THIS WEEK!

Can anybody else believe it’s just over three months since we were in the RDS watching Ulster in the Pro12 final? Yet now we are only three days away from it all starting yet again, and first up for Ulster is a tricky away trip to the Newport-Gwent Dragons – a side that has strengthened considerably in the summer and is looking to vastly improve on a disappointing eleventh place finish last season.

It will be a long, difficult season for the Ulstermen, so I have decided to do a Pro12 Preview for the season ahead. Enjoy!

Benetton Rugby Treviso

Probably the most improved side in the Pro12 over the past few years, the news that Franco Smith will be leaving the side at the end of the season will be more than enough motivation for the Italians to push for a top half finish for the first time. However, they haven’t improved enough over the summer and they may find themselves coming up a place short once again.

Key Man: Manoa Vosawai – The big-hitting Italian qualified back rower is the Treviso equivalent of Nick Williams and can be a game changer with his strong runs from the base of the scrum. That said, he goes missing very often when he doesn’t have the ball in his hands.

Prediction: 7^th

Cardiff Blues

The Blues may be in for a tough season. Having lost Jamie Roberts to Racing Metro, and Sam Warburton to a lengthy injury, the best that they may look for is damage limitation. A new plastic pitch at the Cardiff Arms Park is worth celebrating, and it may prove dividends for them in a few matches, but ultimately this could be a long year in Cardiff.

Key Man: Leigh Halfpenny – The Lions full-back has a lot to do if he wishes to continue his successful season. Should he fail to help the Blues to a decent showing this season, then a move to France beckons. Where do Leigh’s loyalties really lie?

Prediction: 10^th

Connacht Rugby

Eric Elwood out, Pat Lam in, and Connacht are looking like a new team. Strengthening their squad all over the park over summer is exactly what the doctor ordered and if they can gel quickly enough, Connacht will be looking at shooting for a top half spot too. It will all depend on how they adjust to Lam’s style of play in the early stages of the season.

Key Man: Craig Clarke – The former Chiefs lock is a big addition to the Connacht squad and will play probably a similar role to that of Johann Muller for Ulster. A highly experienced player, his leadership should benefit the Galway men a lot.

Prediction: 8^th

Edinburgh Rugby

Good to see Alan Solomons back in Celtic rugby again as coach of Edinburgh, and he has his work cut out for himself. If he can get the Scotsmen playing the way they were a couple of seasons ago when they reached the semi-finals of the Heineken Cup then there is no reason why he can’t aim for the play-offs. Big emphasis on “if” though.

Key Man: Greig Laidlaw – The Scotland scrum-half didn’t have the best season in 2012-13, and Edinburgh faltered. If the capital’s captain can find his form once more then there is hope for Edinburgh to get back to playing the rugby that got them to the Heineken Cup semi-final.

Prediction: 9^th

Glasgow Warriors

Glasgow are a unique side with strength all over the park. They have retained nearly all of their players for this season and will be looking to go one step further and get a home semi-final this season. What is concerning is their lack of business in the transfer market regarding incoming players, and with a very similar squad, it is likely they will finish in a very similar position.

Key Man: Niko Matawalu – Words cannot begin to describe Niko Matawalu. The lightning quick scrum-half was in great form at the end of last season and should he keep up that form into this season then there will be few teams that can handle him.

Prediction: 3^rd

Leinster Rugby

As always, Leinster will probably be the team to beat, although with Sexton and Nacewa, two highly influential players, moving on, you would reluctantly say that the defending champions are not as strong as they were last season. Will fight it out with Ulster for top spot in the regular season, may struggle slightly more with international call-ups.

Key Man: Brian O’Driscoll – In what will be probably his last season as a rugby professional, O’Driscoll will be as important to Leinster as he has been over the last few seasons. Whether he can recreate his great moments from the last few seasons or not remains to be seen.

Prediction: 2^nd

Munster Rugby

Rob Penney’s first season in charge of Munster had its ups and downs and eventually ended in a sixth place finish in the Pro12. A year on and there is real belief that they can push on and reach the top 4 of the Pro12 again, especially with the big signing of Gerhard van den Heever. However, it will be tough for a massive improvement down south and the play-offs may just be out of reach.

Key Man: Paul O’Connell – Last season was a difficult season due to injury for Munster’s talismanic captain, but if he can stay injury free for most of this season then he will be crucial to trying to get his province to a play-off place come May.

Prediction: 5^th

Newport-Gwent Dragons

The Dragons are one of those sides that will pull off remarkable scalps that you just don’t think are possible, then mess it up the next week somehow. They have brought in plenty of new players for the new season which will strengthen their squad no end, but whether they are much better than what they already had is questionable.

Key Man: Kristopher Burton – Burton is a new signing from Treviso for this season, and his experience at fly-half will be essential to the Dragons if they do wish to improve upon last season. The versatile Italian can play full-back and wing too.

Prediction: 11^th

Ospreys

Fifth was not acceptable for the Ospreys last season and they will be keen to make up for it this season. Losing Kahn Fotuali’i to Northampton is a big blow though, and as good as Tito Tebaldi is, he isn’t of the same calibre. The Ospreys haven’t significantly strengthened but may benefit from the lack of dealing of other teams instead to make it into the play-offs.

Key Man: Alun Wyn Jones – Chosen to captain the Lions for a reason, AW Jones is one of those names that jumps off a teamsheet at you. His leadership will be important to helping the two-time champions back into the play-offs after a disappointing 2012-13 season.

Prediction: 4^th

Scarlets

Reaching the top 4 last season for the Scarlets was a big moment for the Scarlets and they will have loved every minute of it. Sadly it seems that will be the only enjoyable moment for the next few years because with the departures of George North and Matthew Rees to other clubs their squad is significantly weakened. Top half may be a more realistic aim for the Scarlets.

Key Man: John Barclay – A marquee signing for the Scarlets, Barclay is a player that they need to solidify their back row. Brought down to help keep the Scarlets in the play-offs for a second successive season, his play will be beneficial to the Llanelli side’s plight.

Prediction: 6^th

Ulster Rugby

Pushing on from last season must be a priority for the Ulstermen – falling at the final hurdle for the second year running (in two different tournaments admittedly) is another painful lesson. With much of a similar squad, familiarity won’t be a problem, but improving may be difficult. However, top spot should be within reach for the second successive season.

Key Man: Ruan Pienaar – Words cannot describe Pienaar. His cool, calm and collected method of playing the game of rugby simply oozes class and if he can regain the form that he showed when he first joined Ulster then he will be a force to be reckoned to with.

Prediction: 1^st

Zebre Rugby

Zebre, the usual whipping boys of the Pro12 are, sadly, going to be the recipients of that moniker for another year. No signings as of yet that will vastly improve their team enough to get them off the bottom of the league, and it will be yet another disappointing year for the Italians. A first domestic win could be on the cards though.

Key Man: Mauro Bergamasco – The influential Italian is one of the most experienced players in the Zebre set-up and he will need to be at his commanding best if he wishes to see his side get their first win. However, he may need to roll back the years to do so.

Prediction: 12^th

(Predictions are for regular season)