Tuesday, 9 December 2014

FALSE HOPE

It was exactly what Ulster needed, and yet exactly what they didn’t want.

As Ulster slowly began to ease away from the Scarlets and consolidate their bonus point win on Saturday night, the rugby gods had one cruel twist left to play and, after Stuart Olding departed late in the first half never to return, Neil Doak could only watch on in a mixture of shock and despair as Wiehahn Herbst, Franco van der Merwe, Stuart McCloskey and Nick Williams followed suit. Four injuries in about the space of ten minutes.

What will sicken Doak most is the fact that two of them were freak injuries. Firstly Franco felt the full force of Nick Williams’ head as the two forwards clashed into each other while making a joint tackle, and then, even more bizarrely, Stuart McCloskey had to be helped off with an elbow injury after he ran full pelt into the back of referee Luke Pearce.

Yes, the referee.

Of course it wasn’t McCloskey’s fault, he was only trying to catch a pass from Ruan Pienaar that happened to be slightly too far in front of him, but even so it’s another injury worry for the coaching staff to concern themselves with. Meanwhile Herbst and Williams don’t exactly look all too healthy either, and the loss of the South African tighthead would be a terrible blow as he and Callum Black were beginning to form a formidable prop partnership.

In many ways Ulster’s injury situation sums up their European charge – too much to handle.

Let’s face it, we knew that after we lost in Leicester and then at home to Toulon that the mountain we had to climb to qualify for the knockout stages was the equivalent of Mount Everest. True, with the five points gained on Saturday there is definitely still a chance for us to make it to the final eight, and with another win on Sunday that dream may still continue. But with an away trip to the Felix Mayol to take on the defending champions and the Tigers still to come to Belfast, things look bleak.

The return of Ruan Pienaar has galvanised us, but there’s only so much that one man can do. With the injuries that we have and the daunting prospect of taking points from the hostile Mayol crowd (something we couldn’t do at home) the odds are heavily against us. Anyone who can see us getting out of this pool now is very much an optimist rather than a realist.

This is why I have titled this week’s entry as “False Hope” – the win masked a still difficult problem in Europe. It’s perfectly good singing Ulster’s praises for a very good win, which it was, but the underlying issue is that realistically they still need at least 11 points from their last three games to even stand a chance of qualifying, and even then that may not be enough when you consider the competitive nature of the other four pools.

Where are those points coming from? A win over the Scarlets on Sunday would set the right tone, however with the injuries picked up on Saturday that’s not a given by any stretch of the imagination. The Scarlets are a much different prospect in the cold windy valleys of Llanelli than they are on the road, as Leicester found out in October. A home win over Leicester should be expected but away in Toulon expectations will be low.

Perhaps it is now time to focus our attentions elsewhere. We are already ravaged by injuries, and any more could be detrimental toward our Pro12 efforts, which right now look a lot more realistic than any further progression in the Champions’ Cup. Before now and the end of January we will travel to the Ospreys and Leinster and also play host to Connacht, three vital games that we can win and would put us in a very good position heading into the international period.

I’m not saying we should roll over in Europe, far from it – our pride in the white shirt should count for a lot more than that. However, should we not manage a win this Sunday then there is certainly a case for resting several key players for the Toulon and Leicester games and protecting our front line stars. Why focus all our efforts on Europe with no reward?

Then again, I’m just negative. An unlikely five points in Wales and this pool is wide open…

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