ON THE SLIDE

As the sun set behind the Grandstand at the RDS, so set the sun on another dismal performance for Ulster.

That is their fourth loss in their last six games. Yes, that is a whopping 33% win rate in all competitions since the 28^th November, and those two wins both came at home. Meanwhile we have lost on the road to Munster, the Scarlets, the Ospreys and now Leinster all in the space of six weeks. For a side that has aspirations to be in the top four come the end of the season and to be competing at the highest level, that is a shockingly poor statistic.

Dress it up any way you like it, there has been an incredible decline in performances since November. The loss on the road to the Ospreys, as well as our hosts played, was nothing short of embarrassing, while on Saturday afternoon there was a considerable lack of clinical finishing from all involved. How Ulster didn’t manage to cross the whitewash in the first half at least once is anybody’s guess and that inability marks another flaw in the Ulster machine.

It also means Ulster now slip out of the top four and into fifth place. While the gap between us and the Ospreys in first is only five points, it’s still preferable to be on the inside looking out than on the outside looking in. And don’t forget the threat of Connacht lurking in sixth – make no doubt about it, Pat Lam would like nothing more than to finish the season without the moniker of being Ireland’s fourth province, and on their current form that’s a real possibility.

What did make me wonder was whether Ulster’s best chance at silverware has now passed them.

It’s a question that’s been bandied about quite a lot this season, what with the loss of Johann Muller and John Afoa, as well as the retirements of Paddy Wallace and Stephen Ferris, and it is also a very relevant question too. Last season, as we all know, Ulster looked nailed on to go a long way in the Heineken Cup (especially after the win in Leicester), yet fate intervened as it cruelly does and snatched away a potential final appearance with Jared Payne’s red card.

Whether we could have outmuscled the might of Toulon and their global superstars in the final is another matter entirely, but not one we have to address. It still doesn’t take away from the fact that with one of the best 23s that Ulster have ever managed to assemble, we still fell short at the crucial moments – as much as Saracens was down to a combination of bad luck and bad judgement, our defeat to Leinster at the RDS in May was most certainly our own downfall.

In fact, the way we lost then isn’t much different to how we lost on Saturday. We started the game with confidence and panache, seizing the early initiative and going on an early offensive. Yet for all our dominance in the first half, back in May we only led by nine at the break, and on Saturday we found ourselves three down with a man in the bin. In both games the away side should have been standing on the horizon giving a victory salute to the sorry hosts far behind in the distance at half-time, yet both times a lack of clinical finishing and consistency meant there would be no victory salute at the final whistle.

The problem is, we are now looking at a team that gives you the sense that there will be no light (silverware) at the end of the tunnel (season). In previous seasons there was the real belief that with John Afoa shoring up the scrum, Johann Muller providing excellent leadership and David Humphreys scouting far and wide for potential signatures to the Ulster cause there would be reason to celebrate next year. It was a strong team, a settled team, and one that had finally shaken off the underdog tag that plagued the province for years on end.

Then in one fell swoop we lost all three.

Afoa announced that once his regular trips to New Zealand ended, he would make one more – across the pond to Gloucester, never to return. Later, Humphreys would follow him, for reasons still unknown, leaving a gaping vacancy at the head of the province. Finally, Captain Fantastic hung up his boots after an illustrious career that he can be proud of, and we cannot begrudge him that – the man bled for Ulster. Suddenly, a settled side looked rocked by the loss of three anchors with a glaring weakness at tighthead prop, director of rugby and, most importantly, captain.

What we have now is not the same quality. Wiehahn Herbst, even though he actually makes regular appearances for us, does not possess the same ball carrying prowess that Afoa did, Les Kiss won’t be with us until after the World Cup has ended in September of this year, and there still seems to be an absence of somebody who will grab a game by the scruff of the neck and motivate the players into action like Muller did.

Also quite worrying is the fact that our “worldwide search” for a head coach extended to our backroom staff. No harm to Neil Doak at all, who I am confident will flourish in the role with Kiss back at the helm, but when we needed a big name to walk in and take control, we instead decided to fill the position with a man on the inside with no head coach experience.

Mark Anscombe had to go, I’m not questioning that, but with the money that we now had from the departures of Messrs Afoa and Humphreys we could afford to splash out on a big name like Jake White. Instead, we elected to elevate Doak to the role of head honcho, a man who is familiar with the squad but has never been the main man at a team before, let alone one who are aiming to win trophies. Whether that proves to be the right decision is yet to be discovered.

It draws me to the conclusion that we are now facing a difficult period in our development.

Speaking to a member of the senior team a couple of weeks ago, he stated to me that they are being told repeatedly that this is indeed a transition year at the Kingspan Stadium, and while I understand that there are some chinks in the armour that need repaired, a side of Ulster’s quality should not be needing a season of transition. Yet apparently that is what we are facing right now with very little results as of yet.

We still possess the backbone of the side that could have reached the Heineken Cup final last season, and they should be good enough to start picking up points. Instead, we are looking at an outfit who have now lost six away games on the bounce (including a loss at Zebre), only picking up a losing bonus point in three of them. In the meantime, we have gifted Munster and Leinster four points each and the Ospreys five as they pull away from us in the Pro12. While we may not be out of the hunt for the play-offs yet, it isn’t exactly a great confidence booster that we have been humbled by three play-off rivals in the last six weeks.

Has our best chance at winning a trophy already passed us by? Probably.

Right now our first team cannot compete with the likes of Toulon and Clermont, and until we can provide some decent depth in the back row then we’ll be struggling domestically too. Granted, I am willing to give Neil Doak some time to work with the players and at least gain something of a rapport with Les Kiss when he comes back, but unless the results can begin to improve, starting with this week’s visit to Treviso, then there is the distinct possibility he might not even get the chance.

Positive: At least we started running the ball more on Saturday.