The cynic among us will stipulate that the fourth try was conceded
rather softly last Saturday so that we ensured we’d be heading back to
Scotstoun this Friday rather than down to Limerick or across the pond to
Swansea – I cannot possibly say whether that is true or not (I firmly suspect
it is not), however what I can say is that we hold a significant advantage over
our opponents this Friday.
It’s not too dissimilar to what we faced against Leinster a few weeks
ago where they were travelling north to face us just five days after taking a
physical battering against Toulon. In the same way, Glasgow certainly did not
find last week’s encounter the walk over I’m sure they suspected it to be and
will have a few bruised bodies heading into this week’s semi-final. Louis Ludik
and Chris Henry aside, we have a rested side ready to go.
One suspects that Gregor Townsend will do his usual trick of chopping
and changing quite a few members of his side, as has been his forté throughout
the season, in order to keep his team fresh and to keep us guessing to a
certain extent, but the core of the team will be unchanged and will still be
feeling a little worse for wear having gone through 80 minutes against us
already.
That’s not saying we’re favourites though – because we’re not.
Glasgow finished top of the table for a reason: they can chop and change at will and get away
with it. While we headed to Zebre earlier in the season with many changes to
the team and got our just desserts, Glasgow have that ability to call on squad
players to step up and do a similar job to that of their first teamers – and as
such they have been able to win all the tight games that have propelled them to
the top of the domestic standings.
That’s where we may be found wanting this weekend. We have some good
players in reserve, but when we lose a few first line stars then we begin to
see our resources stretched. With Wiehahn Herbst, Nick Williams, Andrew Trimble, Franco van der Merwe
and Stuart Olding all missing, you start to see where
Ulster’s require a bit of good fortune. Of course, you do not want a player to
get injured, but you still have to plan for it.
The records are firmly against us – no side has ever won an away
semi-final in the Pro12, and no visiting side has come away from Scotstoun
Stadium this season with four points. So in order for us to keep our hunt for
silverware going and keep that dream of winning the Pro12 at the Kingspan
Stadium alive then we have to take away the league’s only remaining perfect
home record.
Sound difficult? You bet.
But I would like to remind you of the example of Wallace High School
this season. They went unbeaten all season and made the final of the Schools’
Cup – they looked destined to go all the way and win their first ever Schools’
Cup title. Alas it was not to be as the only side they did not overcome all
season, RBAI (having drawn 19-19 earlier in the year) defeated them in the
final at the Kingspan. They saved their one loss of the season to the very last
game: the most important one.
If Neil Doak is wise he will draw on that. No side is unbeatable and
every side has their weaknesses that are there to be exploited by a team that
knows how to expose them. And that’s why last Saturday was a perfect dry run –
Glasgow fielded a full strength side and went hell for leather trying to secure
that home semi-final, and gave us a good look at what we can expect from them
this week too.
What to work on? Closing down Finn Russell would be a good start,
although given the strength of this week’s side that probably won’t be too much
of a concern, while limiting the ball carrying ability of both Jonny Gray and
Josh Strauss won’t be too far behind on the priorities list either. Glasgow’s
kick chase is also a strong part of their game, and with Tommy Bowe and Craig
Gilroy both back we should see an improvement in fielding those high bombs from
Russell, Horne and Hogg.
Where are Glasgow’s weaknesses? They don’t have many, but certainly
their defence around the fringes isn’t as strong as Townsend would like it to
be, their maul defence is rather lacklustre too, while the possibility of
Nikola Matawalu on the wing is an opportunity not to be passed up – the little
Fijian is a handful in attack, but quite the opposite when faced with a
rampaging forward.
I could spout the usual mumbo jumbo regarding how we should get an
early score on the board and silence the Scotstoun crowd, but the harsh reality
of this week is that we need an 80 minute performance that will rival anything
we’ve brought to the table so far this season. If we can produce a similar
performance to that which saw off the Scots back in October then we stand a
very good chance of bucking the trend and winning away in the semi-finals.
Just one 80 minute performance and we’re home for the final.
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