PROVINCIAL PROBLEMS

As we speed towards another season of European rugby, maybe a bit of a reality check is in order.

Take, for instance, the dominance of the French clubs. Do we really see that changing this year? As Ulster, Munster and Leinster attempt (more than likely in vain) to wrestle off the firm grasp the might of Mourad Boudjellal and Toulon have on the Champions’ Cup trophy, you can’t help but feel that it is simply a forlorn attempt fuelled by the laboured desire to simply appear semi-competitive in a wider spectrum.

The Irish sides will put up a fight no doubt. Ulster have a bone to pick with Saracens so our Round Two clash should be very tasty indeed, Leinster will not want to finish bottom of Pool Five even if it is one of the toughest pools in recent memory, while I do actually believe Munster will progress from their pool which is one of the easier this season.

But the grim reality is none of the provinces are going to be able to surmount a strong enough challenge at the lofty French perch on which they roost. Like proverbial vultures, Toulon and Clermont swoop down and pick off their opponents one by one until all that are left are each other and from there it is a battle to be the last remaining survivor – a battle which Toulon have won time and time again and are seemingly destined not to lose.

It is still startling to remember that Toulon only made their debut in the Heineken Cup/Champions’ Cup in 2010.

In their five seasons, they have won it three times.

You need no more than that fact to realise that money talks, and it sings like a siren of success. What other team could lose such inspirational leaders as Ali Williams and Bakkies Botha and simply replace them with equally influential leaders in Paul O’Connell and Ma’a Nonu? Not to mention the arrivals of the likes of Duane Vermeulen and Quade Cooper to the south coast of France as well.

That’s where the Irish provinces will probably fall short. With our NIQ quota, there is no way our home production can match what the French sides are recruiting on a yearly basis – that is in no way a condemnation of our Academy systems but it is a blunt realism. The chances of one province’s Academy churning out eleven top quality players to back up four top quality NIQs in one year is slim to none.

Nor is this a cry on my behalf to change the NIQ quota either. You see how the French national team is in disarray due to their lax attitude on foreign signings, and it would be nothing short of a disaster to see the Irish national side go the same way. Simply this is me openly admitting that Europe is beyond winning for us as a country.

Provincial pride and a bullish attitude will get you part of the way. But not all the way.

Is it even worth trying? Of course it is – the excitement and build-up of the Champions’ Cup at the beginning of the tournament sweeps up every club and no matter how big or small there is always the belief that this could be your year. I do feel that the Guinness PRO12 yields a much greater chance of winning silverware for all three provinces, but by the same token I would like to see Ulster give it their all. Or at least beat Saracens.

I have Toulon to win the thing again, and I imagine I am in the majority when I state that because in all honesty the only side who look like they make compete with them could be Clermont, and we all know how good they are at bottling it. Munster should get to the quarter-finals at least, Ulster stand a chance of making it too if we can sort out our wretched away form, but I can only foresee a Leinster exit in January.

Good luck Ulster, Munster and Leinster. Prove me wrong.