PREDICTING THE PRO12

Alright, I won’t deny it – losing, even in a friendly, is painful, and Saturday was no exception. I’ll admit I didn’t see (or hear) the game live, but from what I have read about the game is that it was much of the same as the Leinster match – too many dropped passes or forward passes, and that the scoreline probably didn’t do us justice.

Anyway, there is no point in dwelling on the past, especially when it’s just a pre-season friendly which count for just a little more than diddly squat in rugby terms. Mark Anscombe will be far more interested in his side’s performance than what the result was. Usually the two tell similar stories, but in friendlies sometimes they can actually be a bit different.

But that is not what I will focus on this week though, because there is something slightly more important at hand:

THE PRO12 RETURNS THIS WEEK!

Can anybody else believe it’s just over three months since we were in the RDS watching Ulster in the Pro12 final? Yet now we are only three days away from it all starting yet again, and first up for Ulster is a tricky away trip to the Newport-Gwent Dragons – a side that has strengthened considerably in the summer and is looking to vastly improve on a disappointing eleventh place finish last season.

It will be a long, difficult season for the Ulstermen, so I have decided to do a Pro12 Preview for the season ahead. Enjoy!

Benetton Rugby Treviso

Probably the most improved side in the Pro12 over the past few years, the news that Franco Smith will be leaving the side at the end of the season will be more than enough motivation for the Italians to push for a top half finish for the first time. However, they haven’t improved enough over the summer and they may find themselves coming up a place short once again.

Key Man: Manoa Vosawai – The big-hitting Italian qualified back rower is the Treviso equivalent of Nick Williams and can be a game changer with his strong runs from the base of the scrum. That said, he goes missing very often when he doesn’t have the ball in his hands.

Prediction: 7^th

Cardiff Blues

The Blues may be in for a tough season. Having lost Jamie Roberts to Racing Metro, and Sam Warburton to a lengthy injury, the best that they may look for is damage limitation. A new plastic pitch at the Cardiff Arms Park is worth celebrating, and it may prove dividends for them in a few matches, but ultimately this could be a long year in Cardiff.

Key Man: Leigh Halfpenny – The Lions full-back has a lot to do if he wishes to continue his successful season. Should he fail to help the Blues to a decent showing this season, then a move to France beckons. Where do Leigh’s loyalties really lie?

Prediction: 10^th

Connacht Rugby

Eric Elwood out, Pat Lam in, and Connacht are looking like a new team. Strengthening their squad all over the park over summer is exactly what the doctor ordered and if they can gel quickly enough, Connacht will be looking at shooting for a top half spot too. It will all depend on how they adjust to Lam’s style of play in the early stages of the season.

Key Man: Craig Clarke – The former Chiefs lock is a big addition to the Connacht squad and will play probably a similar role to that of Johann Muller for Ulster. A highly experienced player, his leadership should benefit the Galway men a lot.

Prediction: 8^th

Edinburgh Rugby

Good to see Alan Solomons back in Celtic rugby again as coach of Edinburgh, and he has his work cut out for himself. If he can get the Scotsmen playing the way they were a couple of seasons ago when they reached the semi-finals of the Heineken Cup then there is no reason why he can’t aim for the play-offs. Big emphasis on “if” though.

Key Man: Greig Laidlaw – The Scotland scrum-half didn’t have the best season in 2012-13, and Edinburgh faltered. If the capital’s captain can find his form once more then there is hope for Edinburgh to get back to playing the rugby that got them to the Heineken Cup semi-final.

Prediction: 9^th

Glasgow Warriors

Glasgow are a unique side with strength all over the park. They have retained nearly all of their players for this season and will be looking to go one step further and get a home semi-final this season. What is concerning is their lack of business in the transfer market regarding incoming players, and with a very similar squad, it is likely they will finish in a very similar position.

Key Man: Niko Matawalu – Words cannot begin to describe Niko Matawalu. The lightning quick scrum-half was in great form at the end of last season and should he keep up that form into this season then there will be few teams that can handle him.

Prediction: 3^rd

Leinster Rugby

As always, Leinster will probably be the team to beat, although with Sexton and Nacewa, two highly influential players, moving on, you would reluctantly say that the defending champions are not as strong as they were last season. Will fight it out with Ulster for top spot in the regular season, may struggle slightly more with international call-ups.

Key Man: Brian O’Driscoll – In what will be probably his last season as a rugby professional, O’Driscoll will be as important to Leinster as he has been over the last few seasons. Whether he can recreate his great moments from the last few seasons or not remains to be seen.

Prediction: 2^nd

Munster Rugby

Rob Penney’s first season in charge of Munster had its ups and downs and eventually ended in a sixth place finish in the Pro12. A year on and there is real belief that they can push on and reach the top 4 of the Pro12 again, especially with the big signing of Gerhard van den Heever. However, it will be tough for a massive improvement down south and the play-offs may just be out of reach.

Key Man: Paul O’Connell – Last season was a difficult season due to injury for Munster’s talismanic captain, but if he can stay injury free for most of this season then he will be crucial to trying to get his province to a play-off place come May.

Prediction: 5^th

Newport-Gwent Dragons

The Dragons are one of those sides that will pull off remarkable scalps that you just don’t think are possible, then mess it up the next week somehow. They have brought in plenty of new players for the new season which will strengthen their squad no end, but whether they are much better than what they already had is questionable.

Key Man: Kristopher Burton – Burton is a new signing from Treviso for this season, and his experience at fly-half will be essential to the Dragons if they do wish to improve upon last season. The versatile Italian can play full-back and wing too.

Prediction: 11^th

Ospreys

Fifth was not acceptable for the Ospreys last season and they will be keen to make up for it this season. Losing Kahn Fotuali’i to Northampton is a big blow though, and as good as Tito Tebaldi is, he isn’t of the same calibre. The Ospreys haven’t significantly strengthened but may benefit from the lack of dealing of other teams instead to make it into the play-offs.

Key Man: Alun Wyn Jones – Chosen to captain the Lions for a reason, AW Jones is one of those names that jumps off a teamsheet at you. His leadership will be important to helping the two-time champions back into the play-offs after a disappointing 2012-13 season.

Prediction: 4^th

Scarlets

Reaching the top 4 last season for the Scarlets was a big moment for the Scarlets and they will have loved every minute of it. Sadly it seems that will be the only enjoyable moment for the next few years because with the departures of George North and Matthew Rees to other clubs their squad is significantly weakened. Top half may be a more realistic aim for the Scarlets.

Key Man: John Barclay – A marquee signing for the Scarlets, Barclay is a player that they need to solidify their back row. Brought down to help keep the Scarlets in the play-offs for a second successive season, his play will be beneficial to the Llanelli side’s plight.

Prediction: 6^th

Ulster Rugby

Pushing on from last season must be a priority for the Ulstermen – falling at the final hurdle for the second year running (in two different tournaments admittedly) is another painful lesson. With much of a similar squad, familiarity won’t be a problem, but improving may be difficult. However, top spot should be within reach for the second successive season.

Key Man: Ruan Pienaar – Words cannot describe Pienaar. His cool, calm and collected method of playing the game of rugby simply oozes class and if he can regain the form that he showed when he first joined Ulster then he will be a force to be reckoned to with.

Prediction: 1^st

Zebre Rugby

Zebre, the usual whipping boys of the Pro12 are, sadly, going to be the recipients of that moniker for another year. No signings as of yet that will vastly improve their team enough to get them off the bottom of the league, and it will be yet another disappointing year for the Italians. A first domestic win could be on the cards though.

Key Man: Mauro Bergamasco – The influential Italian is one of the most experienced players in the Zebre set-up and he will need to be at his commanding best if he wishes to see his side get their first win. However, he may need to roll back the years to do so.

Prediction: 12^th

(Predictions are for regular season)

BACK LINE BRILLIANCE

Not a bad start to the season is it? No matter what the game, everybody loves to see their team win, and Friday night was no exception as a capacity Ravenhill crowd watched a thrilling friendly win for Ulster over interprovincial rivals Leinster, courtesy of a late try from replacement scrum-half Ian Porter.

I don’t think any Ulster fan will deny that if we had lost that match there would be a little bit of disappointment. On a night that the new stands at Ravenhill were “officially” opened, the stage was seemingly set for the Ulstermen to get their season off to a positive start and if the away side had come away on the right side of the scoreline then the crowd would have left with something of a sour taste in their mouths.

To tell the truth, Ulster probably were the better team, as outlined by the fact they outscored their opponents by three tries to one. The attacking play by Ulster was very impressive and with a stronger backline they could have had a few more as well – a few opportunities butchered at the Aquinas end could have made the game safe.

In the end I was rather disappointed in Leinster. Usually in friendlies sides will turn down kickable penalties to instead go for tries and run pre-planned moves. However, Leinster relied on fourteen of their points from the boot of new fly-half Jimmy Gopperth and seemed to be focused on the win. While it was good to see them making a contest of the match, it left fans wanting to see more – they only threatened the line once or twice.

Regardless of the opposition, Mark Anscombe will be happy with what he saw. His side came from behind twice to snatch the victory and the game also saw the return of a few players from injury, ready to make up for lost time this season. Expect Roger Wilson to put pressure on Nick Williams at number 8 and Chris Farrell to be pushing for a few starts at outside centre.

Speaking of outside centre, Jared Payne looks set to be having a few games there this season as the IRFU prepare for life after Brian O’Driscoll. With Payne becoming Irish Qualified at the end of the season, it is likely that Payne will be the one whom Joe Schmidt will turn to as O’Driscoll’s replacement. Expect to see Jared at 13 more often this year.

It’s a good job he impressed on Friday then. Playing alongside Chris Farrell at centre, he ran good lines and took his try well with very impressive strength. I don’t think any Ulster fan would complain if Payne played like that every week at 13. And with Peter Nelson looking like he could be the real deal at full-back, the void that Payne would leave would be filled very quickly.

In fact, the competition in the Ulster back line is starting to really heat up. Just look at inside centre with Luke Marshall and Stuart Olding (both Ireland internationals) fighting it out for one shirt, and that’s still with the veteran Paddy Wallace to return from injury later in the season! And at outside centre, as I have already mentioned, there’s Darren Cave, the returning Chris Farrell (who was probably Ulster’s best player on Friday) and you could probably factor Jared Payne into that battle too.

Meanwhile at wing, you would be forgiven for thinking that the two spaces are easily filled by British & Irish Lion Tommy Bowe and Ireland international Andrew Trimble. But another international in Craig Gilroy is there as ample back-up to those two and there is also the ever impressive Michael Allen who was a livewire on Friday night and was a constant thorn in Leinster’s side. We should see a lot more of him this season too.

And that’s leaving out a host of young players who can play across the back three if needed – Chris Cochrane, Ricky Andrew, David McIlwaine and Rory Scholes were all on show on Friday night and all four certainly did their chances at getting a competitive start no harm. It just shows what strength in depth Ulster now have in the back line, it is amazing compared to what they had only a few years ago.

So I think we’re more or less in agreement that Friday night was a success for Ulster – a win to start the 2013-14 season over Leinster and proof that Ulster have a very strong squad, not just a good 1^st XV. Now to take that momentum to Welford Road next weekend to take on Aviva Premiership champions and Heineken Cup pool opponents Leicester in the final friendly before the real season starts.

It’s good to have rugby back!

REVENGE MISSION

I don’t know why I’m so excited.

Possibly because it’s the first game of the new season (albeit non-competitive). Possibly because I will take my place in the new Aquinas stand at Ravenhill for the first time this season and I will get to see the brand spanking new stadium being built. Possibly because I will get to see some great rugby once more after three months in the proverbial wilderness of the summer months also known as silly season.

Or possibly there is the motive of revenge.

Without sounding like a cheesy 1960’s murder mystery film, I would say there are still some long-lasting scars that are lingering from May’s final defeat. The pain of deservedly finishing top of the league, then coming agonisingly close to defeating Leinster in Dublin for the second time in less than two months, is a very difficult thing to digest. Luckily there is a chance to put it all right again this season.

That starts tomorrow, only to a much lesser extent than what it would do if it was later in the season. While tomorrow’s clash may only be a warm-up match for the upcoming season, it is a chance for Ulster to prove to the rugby community that they haven’t lost that hunger or belief that they showed throughout the 2012/13 season, from the first ever win in France last August to the final whistle at the RDS in May.

Obviously it won’t be two full strength teams on show at Ravenhill, but even so it will be an early chance for Ulster to get a (limited) one-up over their interprovincial rivals at the start of the season. However, don’t expect there to be much kicking at goal – rather it will be a game that will focus on the backs moves, where the coaches will look at what should be tried again, and what should never feature in a competitive match – ever.

Ulster supporters will recall the friendly at Ravenhill against Leicester last season where it ended in what was a thrilling 14-all draw as both sides went all out in attempt to score as many tries as possible, yet only managing two each. Despite the low score, it was an entertaining match in glorious Northern Irish sunshine, and if the attacking play was replicated in tomorrow’s match then I don’t think may fans will leave Ravenhill upset, regardless of the scoreline.

That is really what matters for the fans about friendlies in the end – they are the only games of the season where fans can show up and enjoy the game for the rugby on show, rather than worrying about the result as well. And usually the fans are not left wanting, as proved by Montpellier’s impressive 52-point haul against Leicester just less than two weeks ago.

So what will Mark Anscombe be looking for most? Well if, as predicted, he goes for two different XVs for each half then he will be expecting each player to impress  since tiredness should not be a factor. There are many players with a point to prove for several reasons, and they will all get their chances either tomorrow or next Saturday at Welford Road.

Players such as Chris Farrell and Sean Doyle are coming back from long-term injuries with a lot to prove, while James McKinney and David McIlwaine are returning to Ulster for their second spells with the club after years away in England playing for Championship clubs. New signing Bronson Ross will be hoping to impress at prop too since making his move from Coventry.

I will sit in my seat at the top of the Aquinas stand and I will thoroughly enjoy the first pre-season friendly of Ulster’s long season. We have nine long months of Pro12, Heineken Cup and international rugby ahead of us, so it’s time to strap in and prepare ourselves for the long haul – luckily our entertainment systems are working just fine!

Let’s just hope they put on a good show…

Ulster Rugby vs. Leinster Rugby

Friday 23^rd August, 19:30

Ravenhill

Pre-season friendly

ULSTER RUGBY

15. Peter Nelson, 14. Rory Scholes, 13. Jared Payne (captain), 12. Chris Farrell, 11. Michael Allen, 10. James McKinney, 9. Michael Heaney; 1. Kyle McCall, 2. Niall Annett, 3. Declan Fitzpatrick, 4. Lewis Stevenson, 5. Neil McComb, 6. Mike McComish, 7. Sean Doyle, 8. Nick Williams.

Subs: Callum Black, Jonny Murphy, Bronson Ross, Alan O’Connor, Dan Tuohy, Robbie Diack, Roger Wilson, Ian Porter, Chris Cochrane, Luke Marshall, David McIlwaine, Ricky Andrew.

LEINSTER RUGBY

15. Darren Hudson, 14. Darragh Fanning, 13. Brendan Macken, 12. Noel Reid, 11. Andrew Boyle, 10. Jimmy Gopperth, 9. John Cooney; 1. Jack O’Connell, 2. Aaron Dundon, 3. Martin Moore, 4. Tadhg Beirne, 5. Quinn Roux, 6. Rhys Ruddock (captain), 7. Dominic Ryan, 8. Leo Auva’a.

Subs: James Tracy, Jack McGrath, Michael Bent, Tadhg Furlong, Ben Marshall, Jordi Murphy, Dan Leavy, Luke McGrath, Colm O’Shea, Adam Byrne, Thomas Daly, Billy Dardis, Thomas Farrell, Cathal Marsh.

THE SEASON STARTS HERE

The end of the holidays means one thing for everyone. No, not the return of school. And no, not the end of great summer weather either (which actually applies to Northern Ireland for once). Rather, it is the return of the rugby season after a long drawn out three months of a wait for those dedicated fans.

“Silly season” as the summer months are branded, are close to unbearable for many rugby fans and whenever the pre-season friendlies roll round in August once more, the excitement is undeniable – rugby action is back again! But the friendlies do not pose the same excitement as a competitive match, there aren’t the nerves of a league or Heineken Cup match to get the blood pumping.

Therefore I feel it is slightly fitting that rather than focus on the friendlies with my first blog post of the 2013/14 season, I will focus on what I want to see from Ulster in this upcoming season, and not just on the pitch, but off it too. What many don’t realise is that Ulster stretches beyond what we see on the field – it is a full-blown organisation with the goal of turning a profit at the end of each year.

Therefore, target number one of the new season has nothing to do with the team, but more with the organisation:

1) Spread the Ulster Rugby brand

You might think I’m being slightly too vague but this one is exactly what it says on the tin – get the Ulster team, name, logo, everything about the club known to more people both in the province, and outside of it. Be that through advertising, open training sessions or through other means, it doesn’t matter. But Ulster need a strong fan base and they will gain that through the spreading of the Ulster brand. Much like the well known Manchester United or Real Madrid brands, that is where Ulster want to be as a club.

Target two is one which I stated around March last season and it is one which I will maintain for the whole of this season too:

2) Win a trophy OR reach two finals

The brightest of you eagle-eyed readers will work out that either Ulster will win the Pro12 or the Heineken Cup, or they will reach the finals of both the Pro12 and the Heineken Cup if this objective is to be fulfilled since there are only two competitions Ulster are entered in. But this is where I (and many others) believe Ulster are at right now: they are one of the best teams in Europe, as highlighted by two finals in as many seasons.

Unfortunately defeat at the hands of Saracens at Twickenham last April meant that objective two was sadly not achieved last season, but this season they will get another shot at it. Certainly one final is a minimum goal for the Ulstermen – anything less now will be a disappointing season by their standards.

And it is a very positive thing that those standards are very high. Four seasons ago a realistic aim was simply qualifying for the next season’s Heineken Cup. Fast forward to today and winning the competition is considered a target for Anscombe’s players. As I have mentioned many times, it is incredible how far Ulster have come in such a short space of time and this is again mirrored in these aims.

Youth is integral to any side – it is where the future of the team lies. Every team wants to have a core base made up of good young players to make sure that they will be successful for many years to come. So my final target for Ulster this season is that:

3) Create a good youth base

Ulster’s success over the past few years cannot simply be short-lived – there must be a continuity plan in place so that they will be competitive for a long time into the future. Mark Anscombe has already laid the foundations with plenty of young guys featured in teams last season, but this must now continue for many seasons after that in order to give Ulster the best chance of bringing back a trophy to Ravenhill soon.

2013/14 begins on Friday as Leinster come calling in Belfast. While not imperative, it would be good for Ulster to get off to a positive start and they will be looking to do just that. It’s good to have rugby finally back at Ravenhill isn’t it? So here’s to a great new season – and hopefully one with a trophy at the end!

SUFTUM!

HISTORY MAKERS

If you’re going to do it, why not do it in style?

The Lions rounded off what has been a rather mixed tour with an emphatic win over the Wallabies, running in five tries in a 41-16 mauling in the final test. After all the controversy over Warren Gatland’s team selection, it was the Kiwi who had the last laugh as he watched smugly from his box at the top of the ANZ Stadium.

To be fair to the Lions, they were absolutely brilliant.

All of them, every single one of them, played out of their skins and they fully deserved the scoreline that they got. Leigh Halfpenny in particular was incredible again with the boot and running with the ball too – he was rightly named the Man of the Series, he didn’t have a poor game in a red shirt.

It is a bitter pill for Robbie Deans to swallow. His job was very much under threat before the Lions series and it is safe to assume that he was told before the first test that a series win was the only thing that would save him. Now he has to answer for a lost series and I wouldn’t expect the Australian board will be too sympathetic to his plight considering the difference between the two sides in the final test. Rumours say Ewen McKenzie will take over as soon as possible, even though Deans still has a year to run. Australian rugby is struggling right now.

Nevertheless, rather than feel sympathetic for Australia, let us celebrate for the Lions who have won their first test series since 1997. While not everybody will agree with how the tour has gone about and decisions made by the coaching staff, in the end it was all correct, and in some ways it is good to see that Gatland’s final decision to drop Brian O’Driscoll was ultimately justified. Who knows how he would have felt on the plane home if he’d followed the crowd and gone with BOD instead of Davies and the Lions lost?

In the end it was a comfortable win – it was set up from the start when Will Genia dropped the ball from the kick-off and Alex Corbisiero then crashed over for the opening try of the match. You just knew that the Lions were up for it. Whether it was something that Warren Gatland said or whether it was simply the players looking for one last hurrah down under, it was close to a flawless performance.

However, while it’s all well and good applauding the Lions, let’s not get carried away. Despite the last match being close to a flawless performance, this was not a flawless tour. There have been plenty of controversies since the 37-man squad was announced back in April, none more so than the call-ups since then.

As much as we all like Tom Court and Shane Williams, their call-ups were not justified and they only joined up with the squad due to their location – Court was in Brisbane and Williams was flying in anyway. That is not the ethos of the Lions. The Lions are the best of the Brits and simply including players due to their location is not what a Lions tour is really about.

The team selected for the Brumbies match was also nothing short of ridiculous. A ramshackle back line thrown together at short notice resulted in an embarrassing loss and that was when people really began to question the tour’s viability. Luckily for Gatland his side won the tour.

Just picture the scene if the Lions had lost the final match though. They would have returned with a lot of questions hanging over their heads and Gatland would have a lot to answer for, especially with his team selections. I don’t think it would be an understatement to say that there would have been outrage at the Welsh-biased selection for the final test.

But there’s no point in dealing with ‘what ifs’ – the Lions won and return home victorious. Congratulations to them, and roll on 2017 in New Zealand!!!

THE HOUND’S TEAM OF THE SERIES

15. Leigh Halfpenny (Lions), 14. Israel Folau (Australia), 13. Jonathan Davies (Lions), 12. Christian Leali’ifano (Australia), 11. George North (Lions), 10. Jonathan Sexton (Lions), 9. Will Genia (Australia); 1. Alex Corbisiero (Lions), 2. Tom Youngs (Lions), 3. Adam Jones (Lions), 4. Alun-Wyn Jones (Lions), 5. Geoff Parling (Lions), 6. Ben Mowen (Australia), 7. Sam Warburton (Lions), 8. Toby Faletau (Lions).

Coach: Warren Gatland (Lions)

FIGHT TO THE DEATH

The big match, much like all the others, has sadly been overshadowed.

The build-up to this game should have been the excitement over who would win the series and how the final game in what has been, let’s say an interesting series, would have gone. But instead there is a bit of a problem. Yet another Lions’ team selection has caused controversy, and none more than this one – the exclusion of Brian O’Driscoll.

I’ll get to that in a minute, but firstly I must applaud Robbie Deans. Before the series began there were rumours that his job was under review, and he wasn’t the most popular person in Australia either. But after narrowly losing the first test, Deans kept faith in his players and only made necessary changes for the second test which they deservedly won, and he has retained that consistency with just one change for this game.

Compare that to Gatland and his selection policy – rotate at will. There’s no familiarity in the team and Jonathan Davies was forced to play out of position in the first two tests. I’d go as far as to say that had Australia played a few warm-up matches like the Lions then this series would be over. As far as the Lions are concerned, the tour has been directed rather poorly.

Back to BOD however, and his exclusion is almost unthinkable, let alone believable. Yes he has been slightly out of form on this tour, but in a game of such importance you would think the most experienced player on the touring squad would have to be included. But not to even be on the bench is close to a travesty, considering he is replaced by Manu Tuilagi, a player who has done next to nothing on tour so far.

The fact that there are ten Welsh players in the starting line-up has also raised a few eyebrows as Gatland appears to have gone back to what he knows best. However, whether this is the best plan is another question entirely. Certainly Mike Phillips was not on-song in the first test, yet he has been recalled, while Dan Lydiate was a surprise inclusion in the 37-man squad, I’m not sure anybody really believed he had a shot at the test side. Even Toby Faletau, as good as he is, was a bit of a shock selection considering Jamie Heaslip hasn’t done much to merit being dropped.

Disillusionment was something I talked about one week before, and if Warren Gatland has been trying to appease my fears I would say without a shadow of a doubt, he has failed miserably. Right from the very start – the original squad announcement – to now – this team selection – there has been something very wrong with this tour, and it is hard to align yourself behind it when you have no faith in its success.

As I’ve said, had Christian Leali’ifano played the entire first test then maybe Australia would have got more of their kicks at goal. This series should be over, and the game tomorrow should simply be to see if the series will be a whitewash or not. However, by sheer luck the Lions find themselves in the position where they can actually be the first touring side to win the series since 1997.

Should they take it, they will go down in history for all the right reasons. Lose, and Warren Gatland’s reputation as a coach will be tarnished. Harsh maybe, but this selection could define how he is remembered – the victorious Lions coach, or the one that threw it all away. Unless his side surprise us all, then I fear it may be the latter.

It’s upsetting as I do feel Gatland has been a superb coach over the years, just look at what he’s achieved with Wales. But since April my opinion of him has steadily declined and it’s close to rock bottom now. What the result tomorrow will do to it I don’t know yet so I will watch in interest. Gatland has a lot riding on this.

In previous years it would have been a case of the Lions weren’t good enough if they lost the series – you took that on the chin and moved on. But this year if this series goes down the drain then it is possible that you could put it down to poor team selections and team management. I hate to keep going on about this, but it’s true – Gatland will either be the hero or the villain at 1pm tomorrow afternoon.

Here’s hoping he’s the hero. Come on you Lions!

British & Irish Lions vs. Australia

Saturday 6^th July, 11:00

ANZ Stadium, Sydney

Third Test

Live on Sky Sports 1

BRITISH & IRISH LIONS

15. Leigh Halfpenny (Wales), 14. Tommy Bowe (Ireland), 13. Jonathan Davies (Wales), 12. Jamie Roberts (Wales), 11. George North (Wales), 10. Jonathan Sexton (Ireland), 9. Mike Phillips (Wales); 1. Alex Corbisiero (England), 2. Richard Hibbard (Wales), 3. Adam Jones (Wales), 4. Alun-Wyn Jones (captain, Wales), 5. Geoff Parling (England), 6. Dan Lydiate (Wales), 7. Sean O’Brien (Ireland), 8. Toby Faletau (Wales).

16. Tom Youngs (England), 17. Mako Vunipola (England), 18. Dan Cole (England), 19. Richie Gray (Scotland), 20. Justin Tipuric (Wales), 21. Conor Murray (Ireland), 22. Owen Farrell (England), 23. Manu Tuilagi (England).

AUSTRALIA

15. Kurtley Beale (Melbourne Rebels), 14. Israel Folau (NSW Waratahs), 13. Adam Ashley-Cooper (NSW Waratahs), 12. Christian Leali’ifano (ACT Brumbies), 11. Joe Tomane (ACT Brumbies), 10. James O’Connor (Melbourne Rebels), 9. Will Genia (Queensland Reds); 1. Benn Robinson (NSW Waratahs), 2. Stephen Moore (ACT Brumbies), 3. Ben Alexander (ACT Brumbies), 4. Kane Douglas (NSW Waratahs), 5. James Horwill (captain, Queensland Reds), 6. Ben Mowen (ACT Brumbies), 7. George Smith (ACT Brumbies), 8. Wycliff Palu (NSW Waratahs).

16. Saia Fainga’a (Queensland Reds), 17. James Slipper (Queensland Reds), 18. Sekope Kepu (NSW Waratahs), 19. Rob Simmons (Queensland Reds), 20. Ben McCalman (Western Force), 21. Michael Hooper (NSW Waratahs), 22. Nick Phipps (Melbourne Rebels), 23. Jesse Mogg (ACT Brumbies).

Referee: Romain Poite (FFR)

Assistant Referees: Chris Pollock (NZ), Craig Joubert (RSA)

TMO: Vinny Munro (NZ)

Assessor: Tappe Henning

ALL TIED UP

Sydney will be the destination for the deciding test in the 2013 British and Irish Lions tour after Australia defeated the tourists 16-15 in Melbourne on Saturday.

You can’t help but feel slightly sorry for Warren Gatland’s players though. Like last weekend in Brisbane, they played very well and with a lot of belief. However, unlike last weekend, this time around they came up short, epitomised by the last-minute penalty from Leigh Halfpenny which fell agonisingly short and summed up the Lions’ match. I put this loss down to two factors.

Firstly was the presence of Christian Lealiifano. After missing most of the first test (well, pretty much all of it) through injury, Lealiifano played an integral part in the Wallabies attack, but most importantly he did what James O’Connor and Kurtley Beale did not do enough of last weekend – land his kicks at goal.

Where Beale fell short and O’Connor was off the mark (puns intended), Lealiifano excelled slotting over all four of his kicks and providing Australia with eleven of their points. It gave the home side the momentum they were lacking in Brisbane and meant they weren’t relying on another late penalty to snatch a victory.

I may be sounding biased here, as the avid readers will know that I am a Brumbies fan, but I’d say Lealiifano was the man of the match in Melbourne. He really made the difference between the two sides – his running lines in attack were superb and he linked up brilliantly with Adam Ashley-Cooper in the midfield, while the aforementioned kicking was crucial for the Wallabies to stay in touch with the Lions.

The second thing was the presence of Craig Joubert as referee. While many criticised Chris Pollock for his interpretation of the breakdown in the first test, Joubert has been equally criticised by fans for his whistle-happy nature as he gave 25 penalties in the match, which equates to a penalty every 3 minutes and 12 seconds. Nobody wants to see a match that is ruined by a ref who blows up every little infringement.

Obviously referees are there to stop players from disobeying the laws of the game, but whenever a referee penalises players too often for small offences then it destroys the flow of the match and not only does it frustrate the fans, but also the players too. With 25 penalties you would also think that would warrant a yellow card for one team but there wasn’t even a warning for either side. Two completely different interpretations from two completely different referees.

Romain Poite will referee the final test, and he will be different to both Pollock and Joubert as he brings a northern hemisphere slant to the game. This should suit the Lions who are used to the way Poite will referee the match. However many said Pollock would help the Aussies, and that didn’t turn out too well for them. Don’t think that a northern hemisphere ref will benefit the Lions massively.

Joubert’s style put the Lions at a disadvantage. In a game where the Lions looked to use Leigh Halfpenny’s boot to keep them ahead of the Australians, Joubert’s harsh style resulted in too many penalties outside of Halfpenny’s range which meant instead that Jonny Sexton had to put the ball into the corner and then rely on the drive from the line-out maul. The fact that the Lions did not score a try tells us how successful that method was.

As for the Lions themselves, well they’ll have to pick themselves up again and get back to work this week. Any chances of a series whitewash have been extinguished and to simply win the series then they’ll have to perform even better than they have the last two weeks. They ran it too close in Brisbane and they ended up on the wrong side of the scoreline in Melbourne. If they aren’t careful then they could end up on the wrong side of the series scoreline too.

The return of Jamie Roberts and Alex Corbisiero could be essential for both the Lions’ attacking threat and their scrummaging potential too which may swing the balance in their favour. Certainly the Wallabies are beatable, especially if the Lions can match them up front. With no warm-up match this week however, the players have done all they can and Gatland will choose on what he has. Expect a team not too different to the one that started the first test.

So to Sydney we go – will the Lions roar, or be tamed?