EASING AWAY

Saturday and Sunday confirmed to us what most of us could have probably guessed already – it’s a two horse race for Pool Five now.

With Montpellier only getting one point at Welford Road, it leaves them eight points adrift of Ulster at the top of the pool, and based on the first twenty minutes in Leicester, it looks like they couldn’t care less. Whatever mindset the French were in, it was completely the wrong one because those three tries they conceded were fairly weak tries. It means the Hérault have a slim to none chance of qualifying now and, as per usual with French teams, their interest will likely wane and return to the Top14.

Credit to Leicester, they did what had to be done, and they did it with a bonus point. Full credit to Ryan Lamb for holding his nerve at the end to land that drop goal as well. Had that not gone over then maybe Montpellier would maintain a little bit of belief for the rest of the pool. This Sunday’s return match between those two will be an absolute cracker if Montpellier decide to give it a go.

It will be of massive importance to Ulster as well. They will most definitely be hoping for a home win on Sunday as it would give them a substantial lead in the pool and could see them qualify for the knock-outs with a game to spare. Having done the job themselves (and in emphatic fashion at that), Ulster are now hoping other results will go their way to allow them the opportunity to head to Welford Road in January knowing the only thing they’re competing for is a home quarter-final, rather than qualification itself.

Sorry, I’m getting way ahead of myself here – we still have two games to play before we even reach Round Six, and they are two very different games.

The one coming up this weekend is a repeat of Saturday’s match against Treviso, only this time it will be staged at the Stadio di Monigo. And having defeated their opponents 48-0 last weekend, Ulster will definitely be the more confident of the two sides – their tactics worked perfectly and with Mark Anscombe set to name the same side for the second week running, the only question remaining to be answered is whether he will adopt the same tactics or not.

The game seems to be a write-off for most pundits. The manner in which Ulster took apart the Italians has led to many asking not whether Ulster will win, but instead, how many by. However, Ulster know that they cannot underestimate their opponents like last year – after going to Franklin's Gardens and winning against Northampton with a bonus point last season, Ulster managed to mess it up next week and lose at home to the same opposition. Anscombe and his team will be desperate to ensure the same thing does not happen this season, especially whenever a home quarter-final is a real possibility if they can keep their form going.

In fact, it was that loss in Round Four last season that probably cost them a home quarter-final – and the stats don’t lie, having home advantage in the knockouts can be the difference between reaching the semis and not. This season, Ulster know they cannot make the same mistake if they have any real aspirations of winning the Heineken Cup, and to really boost their chances of a home quarter-final then a bonus point is probably required this weekend as well.

But the main aim should be for Ulster to get the win first. If Montpellier win on Sunday then the pool will firmly be in Ulster’s hands and with one win in Round Five, they will be safely in the quarter-finals with one shot at bringing knockout rugby to Ravenhill for the first time since 1999. That is the long-term aim, but for now Ulster have to realise that getting four points registered is the most important goal right now.

There must be no complacency, Treviso could easily cause a shock – look at Connacht last weekend, proving that the Heineken Cup will always throw up its fair share of shocks. Ulster have to ensure that they aren’t part of one of those this Saturday. Realistically, however, if Ulster want to be seen as real contenders for the Heineken Cup this season then another five-pointer is what is required.

And to be quite honest, with the quality of opposition that Ulster face, that shouldn’t be a problem.