EUROPEAN EXCITEMENT?

The Heineken Cup is the best club competition in rugby – not many people would argue with that. And with the French clubs all but signing on for next season, it’s looking like there will be at least one more year of exciting European rugby to look forward to – although it may be at the expense of the English clubs who appear to still be dragging their heels over the issue.

Nevertheless, it is back this weekend and for some reason I’m not feeling the usual excitement that I feel whenever Heineken Cup weekends come around.

It may be down to our opposition in the traditional December back-to-back games. It’s not that Treviso are sub-standard, because they will provide a very stern test for us, but compared to the might of Leicester and Montpellier, the Italians certainly are not in the same league as them. This is of course not a smear against Treviso, as I said the last time we played them I have the utmost respect for Franco Smith and what he has done with his team, but even they will admit that they cannot match the might of the other three teams in the pool.

Therefore we head into this game knowing that only two wins will do – and preferably with a couple of bonus points thrown in there for good measure. I was doing a bit of thinking yesterday and if we managed to get the maximum haul from these two games, and Montpellier and Leicester shared the points in their head-to-head, then we’d go into the January matches with an eight point lead in the pool. That is a massive incentive for the players – to go into our final two matches knowing one win would see us through as pool winners (and likely home quarter finalists) would be an incredible confidence booster.

But that has to be second in our thoughts. As I have said, Treviso are a much improved outfit, and while we should have enough to see them off easily at home, they will be a handful at the Stadio di Monigo. Like all teams, they do not like to lose at home, and boast the record of being the only side to defeat Munster in the league this season – coincidentally, that came at the Monigo.

With one away win in the bag, we simply have to stay on the winning trail to be right in with a chance of coming away with that home quarter-final spot. Admittedly, winning at Welford Road in Round Six will be an extremely difficult task, but with any luck we’ll have top spot in the pool wrapped up already and we’ll simply be shooting for the six from six record. For now, eight points must be the minimum aim. If the chance for a bonus point arises then by all means go for it.

However, our squad is still looking very thin. With Stuart Olding, Rory Best and Chris Henry still out injured, and Jared Payne and Johann Muller likely to only make the bench for this week’s game, we’re missing five key players from our starting line-up from a game where nothing less than a win will suffice, and where five points is very much preferred. If we could manufacture the scenario I have mentioned above then we will be in one of the best positions we have been in in the Heineken Cup – ever.

In other words, there is a lot more riding on this match than there first appears to be. It seems like a foregone conclusion that Ulster will win this weekend, although that isn’t even guaranteed yet. With the pressure of the position we could put ourselves in combined with the heat of the moment, anything can happen in the Heineken Cup. Just remember, only two seasons ago we came the closest possibly any side has ever been to beating Clermont Auvergne at the Stade Marcel Michelin, and Aironi defeated Biarritz in their only ever win! The Heineken Cup will always throw up upsets. We need to be on our guard to make sure Saturday isn’t one of them.

As the nights become shorter and the days become colder, there’s still Ulster Rugby to look forward to, and hopefully the two sides play out another Christmas cracker for us this weekend and next. To be honest, I don’t care what the scorelines are – as long as Ulster are on the right side of them both!

And maybe throw in a lot of tries for good measure!

Elsewhere…

I’ve decided to bring back my predictions because I’ve missed them too much! You and I both know my success rate will be very low, but ach well – it’s just a bit of fun!

Cardiff Blues vs. Glasgow Warriors – Glasgow win

Castres Olympique vs. Ospreys – Castres win

Exeter Chiefs vs. Toulon – Toulon win

Zebre vs. Saracens – Saracens win

ASM Clermont Auvergne vs. Scarlets – Clermont win

Racing Métro 92 vs. Harlequins – Racing win

Northampton Saints vs. Leinster – Northampton win

Ulster Rugby vs. Benetton Treviso – Ulster win

Munster Rugby vs. Perpignan – Munster win

Edinburgh Rugby vs. Gloucester Rugby – Gloucester win

Leicester Tigers vs. Montpellier – Leicester win

Toulouse vs. Connacht Rugby – Toulouse win