SIX OF THE BEST

I’m not a massive fan of the Six Nations. I’m not a massive fan of international rugby in general. However, this season I’m taking a little bit of an interest in it. With a new coach at the helm, there’s definitely the possibility of a miracle happening a la Declan Kidney’s Grand Slam season, but I’m actually really looking forward to seeing how the side can do in their first competitive tournament, especially after that defeat to the All Blacks.

So in that vein, enjoy the 2014 Hound on the Hill Six Nations preview!

ENGLAND

Captain: Chris Robshaw

Coach: Stuart Lancaster
Stadium: Twickenham Stadium, 82,000
Last season: 2^nd

I’ve been impressed with England. Forget the Saxons defeat last weekend, I watched the end of the game and but for Freddie Burns’ insane throw into touch at the death, it may have been a different result. I like what Stuart Lancaster is doing at Twickenham, he’s revolutionised a good side under Martin Johnson, and turned them into a great side. In my opinion they were the rightful winners of the Six Nations last season, they simply couldn’t convert their dominance into that final win at the Millennium Stadium.

                This season I think they’ll go one step further. True they’re missing Manu Tuilagi and Tom Croft, two of their biggest stars, but they have strength all over the park and if they can keep all the rest of their stars free from injury, then I think it will be difficult for anyone to stop them. Their scrum is stronger than any of the others in the tournament, and if they can take the game to sides up front then they can rely on Owen Farrell to kick the goals.

                Unfortunately, Farrell may be their biggest downfall too. I’ll admit, he’s a great fly-half and you can count on him to kick 99/100 goals for you, while also probing the corners. In open play however, he isn’t the best at getting a back line moving. Farrell will do the basics for you, and while that may be what Lancaster is looking for, it won’t win him tournaments, like Carter does for the All Blacks. Bath fly-half George Ford has been named on the squad after a superb start to the season, and if he can work his way onto the team, maybe shifting Farrell out to 12 would be an option, then perhaps England would be a more potent attacking threat.

                Nevertheless, I back the Englishmen to bring home the bacon. As much as I hate the English “we’re better than you all” attitude, this season I fear it may be true. If they win fair and square, we’ll hold our hands up and say well done, however they are beatable if the backs don’t quite get going. But for me, this tournament is the English’s to lose.

Key player: If you watched Saracens’ demolishing of Connacht, you will know how good Alex Goode can be, and if he’s given too much space, he can carve holes in the opposition defences. His ability to switch with Mike Brown to wing will cause a lot of problems as well.

Bolter: He started this season a long way behind Deacon and Parling in the pecking order, but with injuries to key men, keep an eye on Graham Kitchener at lock. He’s been in fine form for the Tigers, and once he comes back from injury, he is a powerful presence at the line-out.

Prediction: 1^st

FRANCE

Captain: Pascal Pape

Coach: Phillipe Saint-Andre
Stadium: Stade de France, 81,500
Last season: 6^th

France are so hard to predict because you never know how they’re actually going to play. It’s widely believed that the Six Nations after a Lions tour always belongs to France simply because the rest of the nations are still on a Lions hangover, and while facts may be on the French team’s side, they will have to work hard to keep that “record” going. However, it’s fair to say that we haven’t seen such a weak French side in a long time. For all their flair and skill, they lack the grit and determination to win tough games, and naturally they will struggle to come away with wins when their backs are up against the wall.

                They are beginning to struggle from a weak club system. Now that there is big money being pumped into the French game, there are less and less French players featuring for their local clubs, and instead they are forced to watch from the sidelines as big name stars from the southern hemisphere start ahead of them. Where one French name fell, another massive player would rise and take his place in the past. Nowadays they are woefully exposed in several areas and do not possess the fear factor of their predecessors. Saint-Andre has done the best he can with limited resources, but he is being stretched beyond his capabilities.

                They will beat most teams though. Their scrum will not be marched back very often, and the back line, marshalled by Clermont centre Wesley Fofana, has the flair and guile to run in tries aplenty over the next two months. I’m very interested to see how the half-back pairing of Doussain and Tales goes for our Gallic cousins – two players at the top of their game for their respective clubs, but not yet proven at international level.

                A respectable finish is on the cards for the French. Can’t see them winning it outright, although mind you, stranger things have happened in this competition. They still have the same fault as their clubs – they are not as strong on the road as at home, but if they can go into those away games with the right attitude then perhaps the Lions record may go on…

Key player: It may seem like he’s been around for years, but Louis Picamoles is just 27, and is quickly reaching his fiftieth cap for France. He is one of those players that others rally around for guidance, and he, along with Pape, will be crucial to deciding France’s fate in this season’s tournament.

Bolter: Had he not been injured it would have been Sofiane Guitoune, but instead I’ll go for Sebastien Vahaamahina of Perpignan. A massive lad at 6ft 8, he doesn’t get beaten in the air very often, and with only three locks in the squad, he’s one good performance away from grabbing that coveted starting place in the team.

Prediction: 3^rd

IRELAND

Captain: Paul O’Connell

Coach: Joe Schmidt
Stadium: AVIVA Stadium, 51,500
Last season: 5^th

Ah Ireland. As much as I want to say everything will be great and by this time in March we will have the Six Nations wrapped up with a superb Grand Slam win, I can’t see that happening. National expectations are at an all-time high after nearly defeating the All Blacks, and I fear we will be desperately disappointed by how badly we will do. With the World Cup coming up soon, this season should maybe be more of a focus on performances rather than results, although a trophy in the cabinet would be a very good way to boost confidence.

                However, there are still cobwebs to brush off from the Kidney era. The side is still too old, especially if we are building for the World Cup next year, and we still have no decent back-up to Brian O’Driscoll once he goes (unless Darren Cave is reinstated as an option). Much like France, if Ireland lose a few players in key positions (tighthead prop and openside flanker to name a few) then we will be badly exposed against the best teams.

                In saying that, I think we’ll be exposed anyway. I can see why Schmidt would opt to stick with what he knows and go with a Leinster-dominated team, and they are still the best Irish side of course, but if he continues to have such a heavy Leinster dominance then there will be little motivation for other players to try and get on the team. If it works, then there won’t be too many complaints, but there are underlying issues – the dominance of one province looks incredibly poor on the outside.

                But for all the (or maybe more my) criticisms of the Irish national side, there are some overwhelming strengths of course, and under Schmidt, the team does seem to be showing a lot of promise. Certainly no other side can boast the sheer tenacity that the Irish players show and the strong breakdown work that they do. With a back row of O’Mahony, Henry and Heaslip, they will do a lot of groundhog work on the ground. If they can force the penalties, then Sexton will kick the points.

                For now, I think just an improvement would be expected from Ireland. Schmidt is still easing his way into the job, and he’ll take a few wins and a respectable finish in the table. If he can get a bit more familiarity with his players then he will be in a great position in the build up to the World Cup next year.

Key player: I don’t think anyone will deny that Ireland’s hopes rest on Jonathan Sexton firing on all cylinders and staying fit. His form for Racing Metro is uninspiring to say the least, but back with his Irish mates hopefully he can get back to his form from his Leinster days and link up with Conor Murray again.

Bolter: With BOD going at the end of the season, the outside centre shirt is up for grabs – look for Robbie Henshaw staking his claim to replace the legend by carrying his Connacht form from one green shirt into another.

Prediction: 4^th

ITALY

Captain: Sergio Parisse

Coach: Jacques Brunel
Stadium: Stadio Olimpico, 73,000
Last season: 4^th

Fair dues to the Italians last season, they exceeded everyone’s expectations and managed to finish fourth with wins over Ireland and France. Jacques Brunel will be looking to improve on that: with rugby largely overshadowed by the successful international football team, there is now an opportunity for rugby to be presented on a larger stage to the Italian public, especially with Treviso and Zebre beginning to find a foothold in the Pro12 and Heineken Cup.

                In my opinion, their strength is their underdog status. Despite their obvious improvements and slow rise up the IRB World Rankings, Italy are still undoubtedly seen as the sixth team of the Six Nations, and only there to make up the numbers. Although the majority of rugby fans now see that this is no longer true, there are still a lot of people who think games against Italy are foregone conclusions. If Italy can exploit the incorrect mindsets of sides, then their improved side can cause many upsets.

                But they are the so-called sixth side for a reason – they blow hot and cold. If they can get going they can take on the best in the world and give them a good game. If they don’t show up, then they may find themselves on the wrong end of a cricket scoreline. Much like the French, they don’t travel well compared to the British Isles sides and with Martin Castrogiovanni coming to the end of his career, their scrum is rather weak by comparison with the other five sides. Italy will be bullied by stronger packs, and with a set of rather uninspiring backs beyond out-half Luciano Orquera, it’s hard to see where the Italians will score a lot of points.

                Unless they can take down Scotland, I can only see a sixth place no points scored finish for the Italians. Look, as much as I like the Italians, they struggle to keep up with the big teams unless they’re on the very top of their game, and with a very old squad in rugby terms, what they don’t lack in experience, they do in fresh new ideas. Brunel has his work cut out.

Key player: It would be hard to look past the man mountain that is Martin Castrogiovanni. The ex-Leicester, now Toulon man provides a punch in the front row and if he lasts a full 80 minutes in a match then he will make the opposition pay with some strong runs and some bone-crushing hits.

Bolter: Scotland were cursing their luck when they missed on Tommy Allan for their squad and Italy got him instead. Now christened Tommaso by his Italian brethren, the Perpignan utility back can play in pretty much every position along the back line making him a great option for the bench, or even starting, and luckily he has the talent to boot.

Prediction: 6^th

SCOTLAND

Captain: Kelly Brown

Coach: Scott Johnson
Stadium: Murrayfield Stadium, 67,000
Last season: 3^rd

For Scotland this is somewhat of a transition year. With Scott Johnson being pushed aside and Vern Cotter taking over at the end of the season, there is the opportunity for several players to stake their claims to continue on in his set-up, while also sending Johnson out on a high. But Scotland are still the lethargic, boring side that we all love to hate unfortunately, and that nilled result against South Africa proved that Scotland are still a step or two behind the best.

                Cotter shall be watching with interest because he has a lot of work to do. They don’t have an established fly-half, they have an out of form hooker who is only in the team due to a lack of decent replacements, and a passive back row compared to the other teams in the Six Nations. And all these problems are what Johnson must deal with now. There are too many issues for Scotland to deal with to launch a considerable title bid, and an unfavourable draw may see them finish bottom despite last season’s top half finish.

                They may benefit from an Italian side that are just a bit worse than Scotland are. The Scottish backs are very talented too, with Matt Scott and Stuart Hogg leading the attack. As long as Johnson can settle on who is his first choice fly-half out of Ruaridh Jackson and Duncan Weir then his backs should be fine. If the forwards can do their job then they will pose a few threats – Ireland know rightly that the Scottish can be a difficult side to face if they are at their best.

                Scotland do not possess the strength in depth or even the raw talent of the other sides in the tournament, but should they win a few games early on then they could get a head of steam up. They have the added incentive of giving Scott Johnson one final hoorah before he makes way for Cotter, and that could be incentive enough to spur them into action.

Key player: Scotland really rely on Greig Laidlaw to not only kick the goals, but more or less run the show from scrum-half. The Edinburgh scrum-half maybe hasn’t been in the best of form for the capital side, but if he can get his game going, then Scotland will benefit greatly, and he can really influence a result.

Bolter: At just 19, Jonny Gray is already pushing into both the Glasgow and the Scotland team, and but for his brother Richie, he could have more than just his two caps already. He’s only been on the scene for a year and a half, but he’s caused quite a stir already – he could cause one more and oust his brother from his starting position internationally!

Prediction: 5^th

WALES

Captain: Sam Warburton
Coach: Warren Gatland
Stadium: Millennium Stadium, 74,500
Last season: 1^st

With Leigh Halfpenny departing to Toulon at the end of the season, the horrible news for Welsh fans continue as their stars continue to depart for sunnier shores. However, they do have the international team to fall back on, boasting the majority of the Lions team that humiliated the Australians over the summer, and they are still the defending Six Nations champions – at least until the end of March anyway!

                Wales are probably the strongest side in the competition, regardless of what I’ve said about England. With an all-Lions front row (or would have been but for injury) of Jenkins, Hibbard and Adam Jones backed up by Alun-Wyn Jones and likely James King from the second row, their scrum will be up there with the best. Combine that with a lethal back three finishing combo of North, Cuthbert and Halfpenny, along with Halfpenny’s ever-reliable kicking, you can see why it’s so difficult to win against the Welsh.

                But it’s not impossible of course. Wales tend to choke in the big matches (last season’s clash against England aside) as highlighted in the Autumn Internationals, and should they lose Halfpenny’s kicking ability then suddenly their ability to keep the scoreboard ticking over vanishes, leaving them rather vulnerable. The weight of expectation will be firmly upon them as well – they’ve won two Six Nations in a row, the pressure is on them to retain it for a second year running. Difficult enough, but when your nation expects you to do it to make up for the failings of the four regions, it makes the job even harder.

                They’ll give it a very good go. Wales aren’t a side to give up without a fight, and with the experience and belief they possess, I can’t see them finishing anywhere other than the top two. In the end, it could all be down to the fact that England have home advantage in the two teams’ match, otherwise we could be looking at three on the bounce. Hey, we still could…

Key player: He was probably the first Welshman to leave in the exodus, but George North still plays a massive role in the success of Wales. His incredible ability to finish from even small chances makes him one of the best wingers in the game today, and Wales will hope he stays fit for the entire campaign – they need his try-scoring nuance.

Bolter: With the fly-half role not yet nailed down for Wales, the chance has arisen for Dan Biggar to make the shirt his own. In a relatively poor season for the Ospreys so far, he has been the one shining light, and if he can bring that form onto the international stage then he could easily nail down a starting position at the Millennium Stadium for the next few years.

Prediction: 2^nd

TERRIFIC TOP SEEDS

What a game, what a win, and what an opportunity we have been gifted.

It was a monumental night at Welford Road. I forwent my position in the press box to join the rest of the Ulster fans on the Holland and Barrett terrace on Saturday night, and I was not disappointed. We sang, we chanted and we cheered all night in delight as Ulster deservedly left the home of the Tigers with all four points, and our unbeaten run in this season’s competition still firmly intact, leaving us a head and shoulders above the rest in Europe.

Now we have been rewarded with a home quarter-final against Saracens to look forward to at Ravenhill which (touch wood) will be completed just in time to be able to host the game. The players have done their job, now it’s time for the builders to fulfil their side of the bargain and have the ground ready for the 5^th April!

Back to the game on Saturday night, and to me it proved two things. Firstly that we are one of the best sides in Europe. For years we have sort of drifted on the edge of the best sides in Europe – there but not quite if you catch my drift. But we despatched the Tigers with a controlled and professional performance, confirming to the rest of the rugby world that we are genuine contenders for the title, and that we can break the ‘six from six curse’.

Secondly, that Ruan Pienaar is the best scrum-half in the northern hemisphere. His kicking game was absolutely superb, both from hand and off the tee, but the composure he brings to the game and his quick passing from the ground constantly puts Ulster on the front foot. He is in top form, and long may it continue – he is a joy to watch in full flow.

Nobody will now fancy a trip to Ravenhill. Ulster proved on Saturday night that we can exploit the weaknesses of teams, and over the pool stages we have done everything that has been asked of us, including notching up two superb away wins at two of the toughest grounds in Europe. In fact, it’s a bit of a disgrace that Ulster aren’t given more of a chance at winning the tournament considering how they have taken apart two real contenders at the start of the year.

So now we’re looking forward to a home quarter-final in April and the chance of revenge against the side that knocked us out last season at this stage. For three years we have been travelling in the knockouts of the Heineken Cup, now we’ve finally achieved a home quarter-final and a glorious chance to reach the semi-finals too. As a top club, we are still slowly improving, and with the opportunity to reach the final without leaving Ireland, the incentive is there.

This could finally be Ulster’s season to win a trophy. We’ll have to defeat three big teams to get there, but this side is growing in confidence, and with home advantage behind us in the quarters and a potential semi-final, I don’t think I’m being unreasonable whenever I say that we really should make the final at least.

Failing that, we should win the thing outright.

Quality quarter-finalists

I don’t think there has ever been a year where the Heineken Cup quarter-finalists have been of such quality. The line up features six former champions, the defending English and Celtic champions, and Saracens (sorry, had to say that!). Three French sides, three Irish, and two English. Hm, seems to represent the current hierarchy in European rugby in my opinion…

And although it doesn’t include the might of Toulouse and Leinster like it did last season, the Amlin should still provide some quality match-ups, including two all-English clashes between Wasps and Gloucester, and Sale and Northampton. Keep your eye on Bath though – they’re playing very well in the Premiership, and deservedly finished as top seeds in the Amlin. They could go all the way, and I don’t think anyone would argue if they did.

If you’re not already excited for April, then there’s something wrong with you. It will be incredibly difficult to predict any of the eight knockout matches, and it will prove to be a cracking weekend of rugby. Just the matter of some small international tournament to deal with first, before the real rugby returns!

Heineken Cup quarter-finals

Ulster Rugby vs. Saracens
ASM Clermont Auvergne vs. Leicester Tigers
Toulon vs. Leinster Rugby
Munster Rugby vs. Toulouse

Amlin Challenge Cup quarter-finals

Bath Rugby vs. Brive
London Wasps vs. Gloucester Rugby
Sale Sharks vs. Northampton Saints
Stade Francais Paris vs. Harlequins

NEW YEAR, NEW CHALLENGES

I don’t quite know how to start this week because Saturday was a complete disaster.

Based on how we played, it would be a fair assumption to say that half of our players were still at home having Christmas dinner on Saturday evening. Of the entire starting fifteen probably only Robbie Diack and Dan Tuohy could hold their heads high at the end of the game, and had Ruan Pienaar and Jared Payne not been introduced when they were, then the final assault on the Leinster line probably wouldn’t have happened either.

Saturday emphasised how much we rely on a few players. You could see a visible difference in the way we played once Pienaar and Payne came on, and without Muller’s leadership and John Afoa’s scrummaging prowess, we struggled to break down a Leinster team which featured many of their second string players.

Admittedly, we did not play well on the day, that’s an unavoidable fact. While it is well and good criticising our strength in depth and our reliance on our non-Irish qualified players, the bottom line is we just did not perform on the day. The RDS is a hard place to go a win, even when you are in-form, so to try and win playing as we were was close to rugby suicide.

But probably the worst part of it all was we didn’t come away from the game with anything to show for it. Had we scored at the end and secured a losing bonus point, it would have softened the blow considerably and would have kept us in the top four of the Pro12. In truth, we probably didn’t deserve the bonus point, but certainly when you compared the two sides on the field, it was the minimum we wanted to leave with.

Therefore, it puts us in a difficult position. Saturday was the first game of four huge clashes in the Pro12 and the Heineken Cup which will define our season, and it would be a fair assessment to say we’ve already stumbled at the first hurdle. Now we face the daunting task of welcoming Munster, who have lost just two games all season, to Ravenhill in what looks like being a must-win game to save our Pro12 season.

Lose, and we will face a massive uphill battle just to reach fourth place in the league and travel away in the play-offs. Right now we’ve lost the same number of games domestically than we did in the whole of last season – for us to be in with a shout at the end of the season then we must be looking at only one or two more losses at worst. Losing this week would be a bad start.

Undoubtedly, the performances must improve. Some claim that our poor performance in Dublin was down to the fact that we faced the two Italian sides four weeks in a row – we couldn’t raise the intensity. This week we can have no such excuse coming off a hugely physical clash, so we should be able to replicate Leinster’s intensity and bring it to this Friday’s match. This week we must get out of the blocks quickly and gain a foothold in the game – the exact opposite to what happened on Saturday.

Expect a full side out at Ravenhill ahead of the following Heineken Cup matches against Montpellier and Leicester. This is the crunch time of the season for teams looking to compete on two fronts, and Ulster will be targeting all three wins which would keep them in the hunt for the Pro12 play-offs and would secure a home quarter-final in the Heineken Cup too, as well as a six from six record in the European pool stages too.

It’s a huge three weeks just into the New Year, and it provides Ulster the perfect opportunity to forget about what happened a week previous and focus on making 2014 a good year for the province. With Johann Muller, Tom Court and John Afoa all confirmed to be leaving at the end of the season, it’s a chance to provide these players with a final shot at winning some silverware with their adopted provinces.

Three weeks, three wins is the aim, and in the context of Ulster’s season, this is possibly required. Our Pro12 hopes wouldn’t be over with a loss on Friday, but they would take a massive hit if we did, and if we travelled away in the Heineken Cup quarter-finals for the fourth year running, then that would be a huge blow after our brilliant win in Montpellier. It’s a big test for us, and if we want to be one of the best in Europe, then we must pass it with flying colours.

Happy New Year everyone!

FIGHT TO THE DEATH

Well this weekend was just full of surprises wasn’t it!

Thankfully we registered our bonus point on Saturday afternoon. We made hard work of it, but thanks to some brilliant skill from Andrew Trimble, we did manage to cross the line four times against Treviso. And if we want to finish top of the pool then we’ll need all the points we can get, especially after Sunday’s result.

All credit to Leicester, they stuck in there for the full eighty unlike their hosts, but Montpellier really should have won that match and they know it. Even with a depleted squad they had a six point lead heading into the final few minutes and they were looking strong. However, they couldn’t hold out the last Tigers attack, and Vereniki Goneva’s last-minute try was enough to hand the visitors victory.

What does it mean? Well, with Ulster at home to Montpellier and Leicester away to Treviso in Round Five, it looks increasingly likely that we’re going to have a winner-takes-all match at Welford Road in Round Six. And what a game that will be – the difference between being at Ravenhill in the quarter-finals, or away to one of the best sides in Europe. As I like to say – the stats don’t lie: the vast majority of sides at home in the quarter-finals of the Heineken Cup win their matches.

Well, as long as neither side manage to mess up their Round Five games, however that looks very unlikely. With Treviso in disarray after the departure of Franco Smith, and Montpellier’s interest in the Heineken Cup very low, you wouldn’t put it past both Ulster and Leicester to come away with try bonus points from their respective matches.

From an Ulster perspective, they will want to put Montpellier to the sword at Ravenhill, and then hope Treviso can do them a favour at the Stadio di Monigo by beating Leicester, or at least deny the Tigers the four-try bonus point. If that scenario played out then Ulster would head to Welford Road, not only qualified for the quarter-finals but knowing that a losing bonus point would secure them the win of the pool.

There are many permutations possible of course, but right now the showdown at Welford Road looks like the most likely outcome. However, the game is so far away it’s too hard to tell how it will go, so instead we will switch our attention back to the Pro12 this weekend as the final game of our Italian Job saga is played out as Zebre make the journey to Ravenhill.

I’m not going to lie, we need to get our Pro12 challenge going. We’re not too far behind Munster, but if we want to finish top of the regular season standings then we’ll have to start getting a lot of points racked up as quickly as possible. Take into account that we’ll probably send down a weakened side to Leinster and we’ll be even further behind the league leaders after that result.

Therefore this weekend we must get a bonus point on the board. Zebre are not great opposition as we all know – they’ve just been beaten 67-3 by Saracens – so we really should be looking to score at least four tries against them, ideally more. If not then we could be playing catch up very early in the season, something which we are not very good at.

Certainly, these next five games for Ulster will more or less define their season. Zebre needs to be targeted as a five-pointer as I have mentioned, Leinster is a case of maybe getting home with a losing bonus point, Munster at home is a big big match where we could gain a very important four points while hurting one of our title rivals as well, while the two Heineken Cup matches in January are very important as we all know.

Winter is when teams start to find out where they are in regards to challenging for trophies – Ulster need to go into the Six Nations break knowing that they have a realistic chance of winning both trophies again. That may mean at least four wins out of five is required from these next few games – a big ask, but not an impossible task.

The winter action continues this Friday – we’re not at Christmas yet, so the action must continue. A few players may be rested, but expect a very strong Ulster side going all out to try and get a crucial bonus point which would put them back in contention for the top spot in the Pro12.

The Christmas crackers continue!

EASING AWAY

Saturday and Sunday confirmed to us what most of us could have probably guessed already – it’s a two horse race for Pool Five now.

With Montpellier only getting one point at Welford Road, it leaves them eight points adrift of Ulster at the top of the pool, and based on the first twenty minutes in Leicester, it looks like they couldn’t care less. Whatever mindset the French were in, it was completely the wrong one because those three tries they conceded were fairly weak tries. It means the Hérault have a slim to none chance of qualifying now and, as per usual with French teams, their interest will likely wane and return to the Top14.

Credit to Leicester, they did what had to be done, and they did it with a bonus point. Full credit to Ryan Lamb for holding his nerve at the end to land that drop goal as well. Had that not gone over then maybe Montpellier would maintain a little bit of belief for the rest of the pool. This Sunday’s return match between those two will be an absolute cracker if Montpellier decide to give it a go.

It will be of massive importance to Ulster as well. They will most definitely be hoping for a home win on Sunday as it would give them a substantial lead in the pool and could see them qualify for the knock-outs with a game to spare. Having done the job themselves (and in emphatic fashion at that), Ulster are now hoping other results will go their way to allow them the opportunity to head to Welford Road in January knowing the only thing they’re competing for is a home quarter-final, rather than qualification itself.

Sorry, I’m getting way ahead of myself here – we still have two games to play before we even reach Round Six, and they are two very different games.

The one coming up this weekend is a repeat of Saturday’s match against Treviso, only this time it will be staged at the Stadio di Monigo. And having defeated their opponents 48-0 last weekend, Ulster will definitely be the more confident of the two sides – their tactics worked perfectly and with Mark Anscombe set to name the same side for the second week running, the only question remaining to be answered is whether he will adopt the same tactics or not.

The game seems to be a write-off for most pundits. The manner in which Ulster took apart the Italians has led to many asking not whether Ulster will win, but instead, how many by. However, Ulster know that they cannot underestimate their opponents like last year – after going to Franklin's Gardens and winning against Northampton with a bonus point last season, Ulster managed to mess it up next week and lose at home to the same opposition. Anscombe and his team will be desperate to ensure the same thing does not happen this season, especially whenever a home quarter-final is a real possibility if they can keep their form going.

In fact, it was that loss in Round Four last season that probably cost them a home quarter-final – and the stats don’t lie, having home advantage in the knockouts can be the difference between reaching the semis and not. This season, Ulster know they cannot make the same mistake if they have any real aspirations of winning the Heineken Cup, and to really boost their chances of a home quarter-final then a bonus point is probably required this weekend as well.

But the main aim should be for Ulster to get the win first. If Montpellier win on Sunday then the pool will firmly be in Ulster’s hands and with one win in Round Five, they will be safely in the quarter-finals with one shot at bringing knockout rugby to Ravenhill for the first time since 1999. That is the long-term aim, but for now Ulster have to realise that getting four points registered is the most important goal right now.

There must be no complacency, Treviso could easily cause a shock – look at Connacht last weekend, proving that the Heineken Cup will always throw up its fair share of shocks. Ulster have to ensure that they aren’t part of one of those this Saturday. Realistically, however, if Ulster want to be seen as real contenders for the Heineken Cup this season then another five-pointer is what is required.

And to be quite honest, with the quality of opposition that Ulster face, that shouldn’t be a problem.

EUROPEAN EXCITEMENT?

The Heineken Cup is the best club competition in rugby – not many people would argue with that. And with the French clubs all but signing on for next season, it’s looking like there will be at least one more year of exciting European rugby to look forward to – although it may be at the expense of the English clubs who appear to still be dragging their heels over the issue.

Nevertheless, it is back this weekend and for some reason I’m not feeling the usual excitement that I feel whenever Heineken Cup weekends come around.

It may be down to our opposition in the traditional December back-to-back games. It’s not that Treviso are sub-standard, because they will provide a very stern test for us, but compared to the might of Leicester and Montpellier, the Italians certainly are not in the same league as them. This is of course not a smear against Treviso, as I said the last time we played them I have the utmost respect for Franco Smith and what he has done with his team, but even they will admit that they cannot match the might of the other three teams in the pool.

Therefore we head into this game knowing that only two wins will do – and preferably with a couple of bonus points thrown in there for good measure. I was doing a bit of thinking yesterday and if we managed to get the maximum haul from these two games, and Montpellier and Leicester shared the points in their head-to-head, then we’d go into the January matches with an eight point lead in the pool. That is a massive incentive for the players – to go into our final two matches knowing one win would see us through as pool winners (and likely home quarter finalists) would be an incredible confidence booster.

But that has to be second in our thoughts. As I have said, Treviso are a much improved outfit, and while we should have enough to see them off easily at home, they will be a handful at the Stadio di Monigo. Like all teams, they do not like to lose at home, and boast the record of being the only side to defeat Munster in the league this season – coincidentally, that came at the Monigo.

With one away win in the bag, we simply have to stay on the winning trail to be right in with a chance of coming away with that home quarter-final spot. Admittedly, winning at Welford Road in Round Six will be an extremely difficult task, but with any luck we’ll have top spot in the pool wrapped up already and we’ll simply be shooting for the six from six record. For now, eight points must be the minimum aim. If the chance for a bonus point arises then by all means go for it.

However, our squad is still looking very thin. With Stuart Olding, Rory Best and Chris Henry still out injured, and Jared Payne and Johann Muller likely to only make the bench for this week’s game, we’re missing five key players from our starting line-up from a game where nothing less than a win will suffice, and where five points is very much preferred. If we could manufacture the scenario I have mentioned above then we will be in one of the best positions we have been in in the Heineken Cup – ever.

In other words, there is a lot more riding on this match than there first appears to be. It seems like a foregone conclusion that Ulster will win this weekend, although that isn’t even guaranteed yet. With the pressure of the position we could put ourselves in combined with the heat of the moment, anything can happen in the Heineken Cup. Just remember, only two seasons ago we came the closest possibly any side has ever been to beating Clermont Auvergne at the Stade Marcel Michelin, and Aironi defeated Biarritz in their only ever win! The Heineken Cup will always throw up upsets. We need to be on our guard to make sure Saturday isn’t one of them.

As the nights become shorter and the days become colder, there’s still Ulster Rugby to look forward to, and hopefully the two sides play out another Christmas cracker for us this weekend and next. To be honest, I don’t care what the scorelines are – as long as Ulster are on the right side of them both!

And maybe throw in a lot of tries for good measure!

Elsewhere…

I’ve decided to bring back my predictions because I’ve missed them too much! You and I both know my success rate will be very low, but ach well – it’s just a bit of fun!

Cardiff Blues vs. Glasgow Warriors – Glasgow win

Castres Olympique vs. Ospreys – Castres win

Exeter Chiefs vs. Toulon – Toulon win

Zebre vs. Saracens – Saracens win

ASM Clermont Auvergne vs. Scarlets – Clermont win

Racing Métro 92 vs. Harlequins – Racing win

Northampton Saints vs. Leinster – Northampton win

Ulster Rugby vs. Benetton Treviso – Ulster win

Munster Rugby vs. Perpignan – Munster win

Edinburgh Rugby vs. Gloucester Rugby – Gloucester win

Leicester Tigers vs. Montpellier – Leicester win

Toulouse vs. Connacht Rugby – Toulouse win

PAPERING OVER THE CRACKS

I read an article yesterday morning and the final line read “Well done Ireland, but you well and truly blew that.”

I can’t argue with that in the slightest. You can look at that match and applaud Ireland for their valiant efforts, but the undeniable truth is that they let a seventeen point lead go in a match where their opponents were well below par and were there for the taking. For all the talk about the All Blacks and how good they were, they either underestimated Ireland or simply did not play – either way they were very poor by their standards.

On the flip side, that’s why they are the best side in the world. The All Blacks never got out of second gear and yet they were still able to come away with the win. Ireland certainly contributed to their own downfall yes, but it was down to the All Blacks to capitalise on those errors which they did. The best teams win matches even when they are the second best side on the pitch. New Zealand did.

Of course, the Irish media will now fawn over the international side and declare themselves the best side in the northern hemisphere. But the question remains to be asked: how can a team be torn apart one week, then a more-or-less similar side run the best side in the world right down to the wire? It’s this inconsistency shown by the Ireland team that annoys the fans – why can’t they show the same intensity that they did on Sunday in every match?

It still doesn’t take away from the fact that Ireland lost that match, rather than the All Blacks won it. What Jack McGrath was thinking when he flopped on that final ruck I’m not quite sure, and why Jonny Sexton, one of the world’s greatest goal kickers, took so long over that kick whenever if he landed it the game was over I don’t know either. Little things that add up to the loss.

And that final try was just coming. Even though Ireland had possession late in the 79^th minute you just knew the game wasn’t over – the All Blacks always have the last say. However, even I was surprised when Ryan Crotty crossed the line with the clock in the red, I was sure that Ireland could hold them out.

It made it even worse for Ireland that Aaron Cruden got two attempts at his kick, and only landed the second one. Had the on-rushing Irish defenders held off then it would have been a 22-22 draw. Quite ironically, if anybody watched the Rugby League World Cup semi-final on Saturday then you’ll realise the similarity between the two games – both New Zealand sides won with the last kick of the game.

Joe Schmidt is too good of a coach to realise that his side weren’t great. They caught the All Blacks off-guard with the three tries, but the harsh reality is that the Irish didn’t actually score beyond the thirtieth minute. The argument was there to simply defend and try to keep the All Blacks out, but everybody realised that Ireland would need one more score to keep the visitors at arm’s length – a score that they didn’t get.

It’s now three months until the Six Nations, and Schmidt will sit down and begin to look at what needs to happen for Ireland to be competitive. He will take a lot of positives from Sunday’s match, but he will still realise that his side threw that away. They had a chance to win that game and go one step further than England had achieved last week, but ultimately they came up short as per usual.

Well done Ireland, but you well and truly blew that.

Injury issues

We thought Ulster were hit badly by injuries last season – we’re being decimated this season. With Iain Henderson, Lewis Stevenson, Nick Williams and Rory Best all being struck down by injury this weekend with long-term injuries, adding to injuries to Johann Muller, Chris Henry and Stuart Olding, Ulster are looking a little lightweight heading into the Heineken Cup back-to-backs against Treviso next month.

Next weekend against Zebre will be something similar to the side we will be putting out against Treviso so it will be a good indication of where we are as a squad. I would still expect us to take at least fourteen points from our next three games, however with us missing so many players our task has been made a whole lot harder – Treviso are not an easy side anymore, everybody knows that.

It makes us just a little vulnerable.