NEW YEAR, NEW CHALLENGES

I don’t quite know how to start this week because Saturday was a complete disaster.

Based on how we played, it would be a fair assumption to say that half of our players were still at home having Christmas dinner on Saturday evening. Of the entire starting fifteen probably only Robbie Diack and Dan Tuohy could hold their heads high at the end of the game, and had Ruan Pienaar and Jared Payne not been introduced when they were, then the final assault on the Leinster line probably wouldn’t have happened either.

Saturday emphasised how much we rely on a few players. You could see a visible difference in the way we played once Pienaar and Payne came on, and without Muller’s leadership and John Afoa’s scrummaging prowess, we struggled to break down a Leinster team which featured many of their second string players.

Admittedly, we did not play well on the day, that’s an unavoidable fact. While it is well and good criticising our strength in depth and our reliance on our non-Irish qualified players, the bottom line is we just did not perform on the day. The RDS is a hard place to go a win, even when you are in-form, so to try and win playing as we were was close to rugby suicide.

But probably the worst part of it all was we didn’t come away from the game with anything to show for it. Had we scored at the end and secured a losing bonus point, it would have softened the blow considerably and would have kept us in the top four of the Pro12. In truth, we probably didn’t deserve the bonus point, but certainly when you compared the two sides on the field, it was the minimum we wanted to leave with.

Therefore, it puts us in a difficult position. Saturday was the first game of four huge clashes in the Pro12 and the Heineken Cup which will define our season, and it would be a fair assessment to say we’ve already stumbled at the first hurdle. Now we face the daunting task of welcoming Munster, who have lost just two games all season, to Ravenhill in what looks like being a must-win game to save our Pro12 season.

Lose, and we will face a massive uphill battle just to reach fourth place in the league and travel away in the play-offs. Right now we’ve lost the same number of games domestically than we did in the whole of last season – for us to be in with a shout at the end of the season then we must be looking at only one or two more losses at worst. Losing this week would be a bad start.

Undoubtedly, the performances must improve. Some claim that our poor performance in Dublin was down to the fact that we faced the two Italian sides four weeks in a row – we couldn’t raise the intensity. This week we can have no such excuse coming off a hugely physical clash, so we should be able to replicate Leinster’s intensity and bring it to this Friday’s match. This week we must get out of the blocks quickly and gain a foothold in the game – the exact opposite to what happened on Saturday.

Expect a full side out at Ravenhill ahead of the following Heineken Cup matches against Montpellier and Leicester. This is the crunch time of the season for teams looking to compete on two fronts, and Ulster will be targeting all three wins which would keep them in the hunt for the Pro12 play-offs and would secure a home quarter-final in the Heineken Cup too, as well as a six from six record in the European pool stages too.

It’s a huge three weeks just into the New Year, and it provides Ulster the perfect opportunity to forget about what happened a week previous and focus on making 2014 a good year for the province. With Johann Muller, Tom Court and John Afoa all confirmed to be leaving at the end of the season, it’s a chance to provide these players with a final shot at winning some silverware with their adopted provinces.

Three weeks, three wins is the aim, and in the context of Ulster’s season, this is possibly required. Our Pro12 hopes wouldn’t be over with a loss on Friday, but they would take a massive hit if we did, and if we travelled away in the Heineken Cup quarter-finals for the fourth year running, then that would be a huge blow after our brilliant win in Montpellier. It’s a big test for us, and if we want to be one of the best in Europe, then we must pass it with flying colours.

Happy New Year everyone!

FIGHT TO THE DEATH

Well this weekend was just full of surprises wasn’t it!

Thankfully we registered our bonus point on Saturday afternoon. We made hard work of it, but thanks to some brilliant skill from Andrew Trimble, we did manage to cross the line four times against Treviso. And if we want to finish top of the pool then we’ll need all the points we can get, especially after Sunday’s result.

All credit to Leicester, they stuck in there for the full eighty unlike their hosts, but Montpellier really should have won that match and they know it. Even with a depleted squad they had a six point lead heading into the final few minutes and they were looking strong. However, they couldn’t hold out the last Tigers attack, and Vereniki Goneva’s last-minute try was enough to hand the visitors victory.

What does it mean? Well, with Ulster at home to Montpellier and Leicester away to Treviso in Round Five, it looks increasingly likely that we’re going to have a winner-takes-all match at Welford Road in Round Six. And what a game that will be – the difference between being at Ravenhill in the quarter-finals, or away to one of the best sides in Europe. As I like to say – the stats don’t lie: the vast majority of sides at home in the quarter-finals of the Heineken Cup win their matches.

Well, as long as neither side manage to mess up their Round Five games, however that looks very unlikely. With Treviso in disarray after the departure of Franco Smith, and Montpellier’s interest in the Heineken Cup very low, you wouldn’t put it past both Ulster and Leicester to come away with try bonus points from their respective matches.

From an Ulster perspective, they will want to put Montpellier to the sword at Ravenhill, and then hope Treviso can do them a favour at the Stadio di Monigo by beating Leicester, or at least deny the Tigers the four-try bonus point. If that scenario played out then Ulster would head to Welford Road, not only qualified for the quarter-finals but knowing that a losing bonus point would secure them the win of the pool.

There are many permutations possible of course, but right now the showdown at Welford Road looks like the most likely outcome. However, the game is so far away it’s too hard to tell how it will go, so instead we will switch our attention back to the Pro12 this weekend as the final game of our Italian Job saga is played out as Zebre make the journey to Ravenhill.

I’m not going to lie, we need to get our Pro12 challenge going. We’re not too far behind Munster, but if we want to finish top of the regular season standings then we’ll have to start getting a lot of points racked up as quickly as possible. Take into account that we’ll probably send down a weakened side to Leinster and we’ll be even further behind the league leaders after that result.

Therefore this weekend we must get a bonus point on the board. Zebre are not great opposition as we all know – they’ve just been beaten 67-3 by Saracens – so we really should be looking to score at least four tries against them, ideally more. If not then we could be playing catch up very early in the season, something which we are not very good at.

Certainly, these next five games for Ulster will more or less define their season. Zebre needs to be targeted as a five-pointer as I have mentioned, Leinster is a case of maybe getting home with a losing bonus point, Munster at home is a big big match where we could gain a very important four points while hurting one of our title rivals as well, while the two Heineken Cup matches in January are very important as we all know.

Winter is when teams start to find out where they are in regards to challenging for trophies – Ulster need to go into the Six Nations break knowing that they have a realistic chance of winning both trophies again. That may mean at least four wins out of five is required from these next few games – a big ask, but not an impossible task.

The winter action continues this Friday – we’re not at Christmas yet, so the action must continue. A few players may be rested, but expect a very strong Ulster side going all out to try and get a crucial bonus point which would put them back in contention for the top spot in the Pro12.

The Christmas crackers continue!

EASING AWAY

Saturday and Sunday confirmed to us what most of us could have probably guessed already – it’s a two horse race for Pool Five now.

With Montpellier only getting one point at Welford Road, it leaves them eight points adrift of Ulster at the top of the pool, and based on the first twenty minutes in Leicester, it looks like they couldn’t care less. Whatever mindset the French were in, it was completely the wrong one because those three tries they conceded were fairly weak tries. It means the Hérault have a slim to none chance of qualifying now and, as per usual with French teams, their interest will likely wane and return to the Top14.

Credit to Leicester, they did what had to be done, and they did it with a bonus point. Full credit to Ryan Lamb for holding his nerve at the end to land that drop goal as well. Had that not gone over then maybe Montpellier would maintain a little bit of belief for the rest of the pool. This Sunday’s return match between those two will be an absolute cracker if Montpellier decide to give it a go.

It will be of massive importance to Ulster as well. They will most definitely be hoping for a home win on Sunday as it would give them a substantial lead in the pool and could see them qualify for the knock-outs with a game to spare. Having done the job themselves (and in emphatic fashion at that), Ulster are now hoping other results will go their way to allow them the opportunity to head to Welford Road in January knowing the only thing they’re competing for is a home quarter-final, rather than qualification itself.

Sorry, I’m getting way ahead of myself here – we still have two games to play before we even reach Round Six, and they are two very different games.

The one coming up this weekend is a repeat of Saturday’s match against Treviso, only this time it will be staged at the Stadio di Monigo. And having defeated their opponents 48-0 last weekend, Ulster will definitely be the more confident of the two sides – their tactics worked perfectly and with Mark Anscombe set to name the same side for the second week running, the only question remaining to be answered is whether he will adopt the same tactics or not.

The game seems to be a write-off for most pundits. The manner in which Ulster took apart the Italians has led to many asking not whether Ulster will win, but instead, how many by. However, Ulster know that they cannot underestimate their opponents like last year – after going to Franklin's Gardens and winning against Northampton with a bonus point last season, Ulster managed to mess it up next week and lose at home to the same opposition. Anscombe and his team will be desperate to ensure the same thing does not happen this season, especially whenever a home quarter-final is a real possibility if they can keep their form going.

In fact, it was that loss in Round Four last season that probably cost them a home quarter-final – and the stats don’t lie, having home advantage in the knockouts can be the difference between reaching the semis and not. This season, Ulster know they cannot make the same mistake if they have any real aspirations of winning the Heineken Cup, and to really boost their chances of a home quarter-final then a bonus point is probably required this weekend as well.

But the main aim should be for Ulster to get the win first. If Montpellier win on Sunday then the pool will firmly be in Ulster’s hands and with one win in Round Five, they will be safely in the quarter-finals with one shot at bringing knockout rugby to Ravenhill for the first time since 1999. That is the long-term aim, but for now Ulster have to realise that getting four points registered is the most important goal right now.

There must be no complacency, Treviso could easily cause a shock – look at Connacht last weekend, proving that the Heineken Cup will always throw up its fair share of shocks. Ulster have to ensure that they aren’t part of one of those this Saturday. Realistically, however, if Ulster want to be seen as real contenders for the Heineken Cup this season then another five-pointer is what is required.

And to be quite honest, with the quality of opposition that Ulster face, that shouldn’t be a problem.

EUROPEAN EXCITEMENT?

The Heineken Cup is the best club competition in rugby – not many people would argue with that. And with the French clubs all but signing on for next season, it’s looking like there will be at least one more year of exciting European rugby to look forward to – although it may be at the expense of the English clubs who appear to still be dragging their heels over the issue.

Nevertheless, it is back this weekend and for some reason I’m not feeling the usual excitement that I feel whenever Heineken Cup weekends come around.

It may be down to our opposition in the traditional December back-to-back games. It’s not that Treviso are sub-standard, because they will provide a very stern test for us, but compared to the might of Leicester and Montpellier, the Italians certainly are not in the same league as them. This is of course not a smear against Treviso, as I said the last time we played them I have the utmost respect for Franco Smith and what he has done with his team, but even they will admit that they cannot match the might of the other three teams in the pool.

Therefore we head into this game knowing that only two wins will do – and preferably with a couple of bonus points thrown in there for good measure. I was doing a bit of thinking yesterday and if we managed to get the maximum haul from these two games, and Montpellier and Leicester shared the points in their head-to-head, then we’d go into the January matches with an eight point lead in the pool. That is a massive incentive for the players – to go into our final two matches knowing one win would see us through as pool winners (and likely home quarter finalists) would be an incredible confidence booster.

But that has to be second in our thoughts. As I have said, Treviso are a much improved outfit, and while we should have enough to see them off easily at home, they will be a handful at the Stadio di Monigo. Like all teams, they do not like to lose at home, and boast the record of being the only side to defeat Munster in the league this season – coincidentally, that came at the Monigo.

With one away win in the bag, we simply have to stay on the winning trail to be right in with a chance of coming away with that home quarter-final spot. Admittedly, winning at Welford Road in Round Six will be an extremely difficult task, but with any luck we’ll have top spot in the pool wrapped up already and we’ll simply be shooting for the six from six record. For now, eight points must be the minimum aim. If the chance for a bonus point arises then by all means go for it.

However, our squad is still looking very thin. With Stuart Olding, Rory Best and Chris Henry still out injured, and Jared Payne and Johann Muller likely to only make the bench for this week’s game, we’re missing five key players from our starting line-up from a game where nothing less than a win will suffice, and where five points is very much preferred. If we could manufacture the scenario I have mentioned above then we will be in one of the best positions we have been in in the Heineken Cup – ever.

In other words, there is a lot more riding on this match than there first appears to be. It seems like a foregone conclusion that Ulster will win this weekend, although that isn’t even guaranteed yet. With the pressure of the position we could put ourselves in combined with the heat of the moment, anything can happen in the Heineken Cup. Just remember, only two seasons ago we came the closest possibly any side has ever been to beating Clermont Auvergne at the Stade Marcel Michelin, and Aironi defeated Biarritz in their only ever win! The Heineken Cup will always throw up upsets. We need to be on our guard to make sure Saturday isn’t one of them.

As the nights become shorter and the days become colder, there’s still Ulster Rugby to look forward to, and hopefully the two sides play out another Christmas cracker for us this weekend and next. To be honest, I don’t care what the scorelines are – as long as Ulster are on the right side of them both!

And maybe throw in a lot of tries for good measure!

Elsewhere…

I’ve decided to bring back my predictions because I’ve missed them too much! You and I both know my success rate will be very low, but ach well – it’s just a bit of fun!

Cardiff Blues vs. Glasgow Warriors – Glasgow win

Castres Olympique vs. Ospreys – Castres win

Exeter Chiefs vs. Toulon – Toulon win

Zebre vs. Saracens – Saracens win

ASM Clermont Auvergne vs. Scarlets – Clermont win

Racing Métro 92 vs. Harlequins – Racing win

Northampton Saints vs. Leinster – Northampton win

Ulster Rugby vs. Benetton Treviso – Ulster win

Munster Rugby vs. Perpignan – Munster win

Edinburgh Rugby vs. Gloucester Rugby – Gloucester win

Leicester Tigers vs. Montpellier – Leicester win

Toulouse vs. Connacht Rugby – Toulouse win

PAPERING OVER THE CRACKS

I read an article yesterday morning and the final line read “Well done Ireland, but you well and truly blew that.”

I can’t argue with that in the slightest. You can look at that match and applaud Ireland for their valiant efforts, but the undeniable truth is that they let a seventeen point lead go in a match where their opponents were well below par and were there for the taking. For all the talk about the All Blacks and how good they were, they either underestimated Ireland or simply did not play – either way they were very poor by their standards.

On the flip side, that’s why they are the best side in the world. The All Blacks never got out of second gear and yet they were still able to come away with the win. Ireland certainly contributed to their own downfall yes, but it was down to the All Blacks to capitalise on those errors which they did. The best teams win matches even when they are the second best side on the pitch. New Zealand did.

Of course, the Irish media will now fawn over the international side and declare themselves the best side in the northern hemisphere. But the question remains to be asked: how can a team be torn apart one week, then a more-or-less similar side run the best side in the world right down to the wire? It’s this inconsistency shown by the Ireland team that annoys the fans – why can’t they show the same intensity that they did on Sunday in every match?

It still doesn’t take away from the fact that Ireland lost that match, rather than the All Blacks won it. What Jack McGrath was thinking when he flopped on that final ruck I’m not quite sure, and why Jonny Sexton, one of the world’s greatest goal kickers, took so long over that kick whenever if he landed it the game was over I don’t know either. Little things that add up to the loss.

And that final try was just coming. Even though Ireland had possession late in the 79^th minute you just knew the game wasn’t over – the All Blacks always have the last say. However, even I was surprised when Ryan Crotty crossed the line with the clock in the red, I was sure that Ireland could hold them out.

It made it even worse for Ireland that Aaron Cruden got two attempts at his kick, and only landed the second one. Had the on-rushing Irish defenders held off then it would have been a 22-22 draw. Quite ironically, if anybody watched the Rugby League World Cup semi-final on Saturday then you’ll realise the similarity between the two games – both New Zealand sides won with the last kick of the game.

Joe Schmidt is too good of a coach to realise that his side weren’t great. They caught the All Blacks off-guard with the three tries, but the harsh reality is that the Irish didn’t actually score beyond the thirtieth minute. The argument was there to simply defend and try to keep the All Blacks out, but everybody realised that Ireland would need one more score to keep the visitors at arm’s length – a score that they didn’t get.

It’s now three months until the Six Nations, and Schmidt will sit down and begin to look at what needs to happen for Ireland to be competitive. He will take a lot of positives from Sunday’s match, but he will still realise that his side threw that away. They had a chance to win that game and go one step further than England had achieved last week, but ultimately they came up short as per usual.

Well done Ireland, but you well and truly blew that.

Injury issues

We thought Ulster were hit badly by injuries last season – we’re being decimated this season. With Iain Henderson, Lewis Stevenson, Nick Williams and Rory Best all being struck down by injury this weekend with long-term injuries, adding to injuries to Johann Muller, Chris Henry and Stuart Olding, Ulster are looking a little lightweight heading into the Heineken Cup back-to-backs against Treviso next month.

Next weekend against Zebre will be something similar to the side we will be putting out against Treviso so it will be a good indication of where we are as a squad. I would still expect us to take at least fourteen points from our next three games, however with us missing so many players our task has been made a whole lot harder – Treviso are not an easy side anymore, everybody knows that.

It makes us just a little vulnerable.

WALLABY WOES

If you haven’t been to the Roe Park Resort in Limavady, you really ought to, it’s a fantastic place to stay.

That’s where I had the displeasure of watching Ireland struggle against Australia. In fact, struggle isn’t even the right word, that’s how badly Ireland played. How ironic then that the one time that we threatened their try line, Sean Cronin crossed the line, only for it to be ruled out by the TMO. It summed up our night really: we weren’t at the races and we duly paid for it. Add into the mix that Jonathan Sexton and Rob Kearney came off injured and Joe Schmidt’s worries will have only increased.

Let’s add in a little bit of perspective, shall we? Coming into this match, Australia hadn’t won two matches in a row all season. No I’m not joking – all season. They were hammered by the Lions on their own turf over the summer, they only won two of their Rugby Championship matches (against winless Argentina), and they were fairly subdued by England only two weeks ago.

In other words, they came to the Aviva Stadium on Saturday night not exactly filled with confidence. With a less-than-stellar record looming over them all season, as well as several overwhelming player issues to deal with as well, Australian rugby was not in a great place coming into this match, and the reality is that Ireland should have defeated them. As we come to the tenth anniversary of the 2003 World Cup final, it shows just how far Australia have fallen in those ten years.

They were made to look good on Saturday night. There were a few players who didn’t let themselves down in a green shirt, let’s give them that – Fergus McFadden and Devin Toner to name but two – but Ireland as a collective unit were not good. For long spells in that match the defence were wandering around the midfield aimlessly, the attack did not have any sort of intent or cutting edge, and as far as the kicking game went, well if it was poor against Samoa it was dismal against Australia. Both Jonny Sexton and his replacement Ian Madigan did nothing but stick the ball down the throat of Israel Folau all night, and the former League player wasn’t going to drop anything. Tactically, that was a very poor call.

Joe Schmidt now faces the worrying reality that the undefeated All Blacks are the next visitors to Dublin, and they have one goal in mind: to win the match to become the first ever side to go a calendar year unbeaten. In contrast, Ireland haven’t won a match against any of the top five teams in the world since March 2011, a 24-8 win over England in the Six Nations. Doesn’t exactly fill you with confidence as an Ireland fan, does it?

It will be interesting to see how Schmidt approaches the match as well. He’s talked about wanting to build a squad for him to choose from ahead of the 2015 Rugby World Cup, and rightly so, if Ireland have any dreams of winning the World Cup they need a pool of around thirty to forty top quality players to choose from. They will not come from sitting back at Carton House twiddling their thumbs while the same twenty-three players line out for every international.

In my opinion (and call me biased), Dan Tuohy has to be given a shot, even off the bench. So far Mike McCarthy has done nothing of considerable note in an Ireland shirt and Tuohy has been the in-form lock in Ireland so far this season. Declan Fitzpatrick must also be brought onto the bench, Stephen Archer was well out of his depth on Saturday night.

In fact, Sunday’s match may end up being a case of damage limitation for Schmidt and his players. The All Blacks are the best team in the world for a reason – they are by a very long way the best team in the world. Spearheaded by the experience of Richie McCaw, Kieran Read and Dan Carter, while having the skill of Ben Smith, Julian Savea and Charles Piutau in the backs, they are possibly one of the strongest rugby sides to ever grace the rugby pitch. They could lose an entire team to injury, and probably still be the strongest side on the planet.

So there we go: an easy task for Ireland this weekend. I’m not sure I’ll be able to watch, and if I do I certainly won’t be expecting anything brilliant. Maybe I’m simply pessimistic, but if Saturday’s match was anything to go by then we definitely have nothing to look forward to on Sunday afternoon. Ireland will need something close to a miracle – and in my opinion that’ll simply be to avoid being hammered at the hands of the All Blacks.

Oh, did I mention the Roe Park has a golf course?

NOTHING GAINED, NOTHING WON

I sat down on Sunday morning, switched on the TV and went to the recorded RTE coverage of the Ireland match. Unusually, I was filled with a sense of optimism earlier in the week ahead of a new era for Irish international rugby – a new coach with new ideas promised to be a positive move for Ireland, especially when the coach was as good as Joe Schmidt, a multiple-time trophy winner with Leinster down the road at the RDS.

Sadly by Sunday morning my optimism was gone. The team announcement on Thursday afternoon proved to me what I had worried about ever since Schmidt was announced to be taking the reins at the sinking ship going down in D4: Leinster were being favoured by their former coach. Worryingly, it bore striking resemblances to the Kidney favouritism towards Munster – the exact thing which contributed to his eventual downfall.

Fifteen Leinstermen in a twenty-three man squad was the kicker. They are the best team in Ireland, don’t get me wrong for one moment, but they’re not as good as that side made them out to be. Devin Toner and Mike McCarthy ahead of Dan Tuohy at lock was what really did it for me – Tuohy has been one of the in-form locks in Europe this season, his exclusion is inexcusable, he just had to be there.

So maybe I was watching in the wrong frame of mind. Only just awake and bitter at Schmidt’s team selection, I hit play and watched as George Hook and Shane Horgan yelled at each other in the RTE studio. An entertaining start to the coverage I will admit, although eventually it had to be replaced by something more exciting – the rugby match was what I recorded it for and it’s what I fast forwarded to.

I may as well not have bothered.

For all the hype over Samoa, they offered next to nothing for the eighty minutes. Every so often they’d make a promising break and win a penalty, but that seemed to be the limit to their tactics. Losing Logovi’i Mulipola early on seemed to hit them hard and almost stop them in their tracks, and thus Jack McGrath had a field day in the scrum. For a side ranked seventh in the world rankings – one above Ireland – they played like a side that had met for the first time on Saturday morning.

Quite rightly, Ireland put them to the sword. Spearheaded by the dominant scrum led from the front by the excellent Rory Best once again (who thankfully has appeared to have solved his line-out issues), Ireland carved through the weak as water Samoan defence, and by the middle of the second half when the Samoans were looking forward to their airplane journey home, Ireland were running riot.

Sadly, it couldn’t mean less. Joe Schmidt will have learnt virtually nothing from a cruising victory – for the last thirty minutes of that game it was over as far as a contest went. In several positions he gave a few players a chance, such as young Dave Kearney who impressed off the bench, but against such sub-standard opposition it means nothing. Australia will pose infinitely more questions to Ireland than the islanders did on Saturday.

Therefore, my view of the Autumn Internationals has not changed. I watched the Ireland match as well as the England vs. Argentina match on Saturday afternoon too and quite frankly I still fail to grasp the reasoning behind staging them every November. In my opinion the sole reason is to satisfy the fans’ need for international rugby at more than an annual period during the season – there are very few other purposes that these games serve.

So I switched off the match on Sunday morning and sat back and reflected on a game which I wouldn’t watch again if you paid me. It makes me wonder how prepared Ireland really are for these Autumn Internationals – one win over an under strength Samoa side has simply given them game time and nothing more, it will be a hugely different match come this Saturday against Australia, and I’m worried how Schmidt’s side will cope with the expectations placed on them now.

Australia haven’t hit the heights they were at a few years ago, and with an extremely weak, faltering scrum, Ireland will now be expected to beat them. That said, Australia certainly are not a poor team. They ran England very close and had they had a more sympathetic referee than George Clancy then they may have won that match (or maybe that’s my anti-English bias shining through again).

Put it this way: Ireland should win, but they cannot let their performance levels drop for one moment. Otherwise we could be in for a long evening.

SCARLETS SORROW

I think after the Dragons match at the start of the season I said that I hadn’t seen a worse Ulster performance ever since I started following them. Scrap that, because Saturday night was about ten times worse.

Despite the fact that we still had Pienaar, Afoa and Nick Williams to call upon, as well as Roger Wilson and Andrew Trimble back from Ireland duty, I think it’s safe to say that we never even got out of first gear on Saturday night and unfortunately we deservedly left the Parc y Scarlets with nothing.

As well as the Scarlets played (and they did play quite well, all credit to them), we made it very easy for them, and it gives Mark Anscombe a lot to think about heading into the international break. For all the accolades he received for masterminding the win in Montpellier, he will have to put his hands up and admit that he got it wrong on Saturday. Now he has a two week break to look at what needs to be done for the Edinburgh match.

But that’s in the past. This week I’m more interested in what’s coming up…

From the Scarlets to Samoa

Of course, the Autumn Internationals are back this week and over the course of the next three weeks Ireland will pit themselves against the might of Samoa, Australia and New Zealand. Not a bad way for Joe Schmidt to start his reign as Ireland coach – facing seventh, fourth and first in the world rankings.

I fully back Joe Schmidt as Ireland coach, however he may find himself with a bit of a difficult start. Understandably in his first squad he’s gone for familiarity with seventeen Leinster players in there, however he will have to get used to a few of the new players that he’s working with and with the three games coming in quick succession, it may be a little too early. Playing them in reverse order (of world ranking) may help, however at international level there are no easy games.

Samoa are up first this weekend and boasting stars such as Kahn Fotuali’i, Toulouse lock Iosefa ‘Joe’ Tekori and Leicester prop Logovi’i Mulipola, they will be more than a handful. Indeed, if both Mulipola and Fitzpatrick are elected to start this weekend’s game then they will come face-to-face in the scrum again for the second time in the space of a month for two different teams.

Home advantage may be what swings this game in Ireland’s favour. The two sides are very closely matched and the fact that Ireland don’t have to travel may be what puts them at a slight advantage. Nevertheless, they know that this will not be the walkover that Fiji were in Thomond Park last season – Samoa aren’t seventh in the world for no reason and they will pose Ireland a lot of questions.

Australia and New Zealand however will be much sterner tests. For all the strengths of Samoa, they aren’t in the same league as the Tri-Nations sides, not by a long way. We all the know the immense strength of the All Blacks, their superb victory in South Africa to secure them the Rugby Championship proved that they are still the team to beat in Test rugby while the Aussies are still a very strong outfit despite their Lions humiliation, and they could have easily beaten England at the weekend.

It will be an interesting start for Joe Schmidt and it will be interesting to see how he approaches the matches, whether he decides to prepare his team for the Six Nations or if he goes all-out for three wins. So early into the job it is likely that Schmidt will want to get a bit of momentum and go for the wins (much to the delight of the fans!) however with a first trophy since 2009 the main aim, I don’t think anyone would begrudge a bit of rotation either to give everyone a shot.

I’m predicting just the one win over Samoa this weekend. I hope for more of course, but with a new coach and with two of the world’s best teams coming to the Aviva Stadium this November, it may take a while for the new-look Ireland to gel. I’d say Joe Schmidt will ultimately be looking for three good performances to start his tenure as Ireland coach, and I don’t think many would argue with that.

That said, three wins would be acceptable too.

IRISH ON THE UP

Contender for greatest Ulster win in the Heineken Cup ever? Probably.

Just look at the stats: Montpellier hadn’t lost at the Stade Yves-du-Manoir in eighteen matches, and they’d never lost at home in the Heineken Cup. Look at the players they had in their team too, no less than eleven internationals in their starting line-up and a further three on the bench. Combine that with the fact that many were tipping Montpellier as dark horses for the title, and it just amounts to one absolutely incredible win for Ulster.

It harks back to last season’s win away to Northampton where we dismantled them at Franklin’s Gardens. On Saturday we did exactly the same to one of the strongest home teams in Europe – we outthought them, played exactly the right tactics to counter them and, quite honestly, we outplayed them in all aspects of the game. It wasn’t a perfect performance, no, but it was very close to it.

What Ulster fans will be hoping though, is that this is unlike the Saints game. Last season we were playing some irresistible rugby up to and including that game. From there we dropped our performance levels and ultimately missed out on a home Heineken Cup quarter-final, while narrowly missing out on winning the Pro12. This season, we are playing a controlled brand of rugby, maybe not the most attractive, but more importantly it is winning us games. Hopefully it will continue.

Most of the credit has to go to Mark Anscombe and his coaching staff. Tactically, they couldn’t have done any better, and despite being criticised before the game for choosing Robbie Diack over Iain Henderson, they were proved right in their selection as the former did a brilliant stand-in job for the injured Nick Williams.

What has this win done? It’s put us firmly in control of Pool Five, and means we are only one of three teams remaining who can go six from six in the pool stages (along with Toulouse and Leinster). With two wins over Treviso (bonus points or not) and another win over Montpellier at Ravenhill, that would probably be enough to take us to the quarter-finals. However, that’s not the main goal.

With a crucial away win in the Heineken Cup registered, Anscombe and his team will have to be looking at getting a quarter-final to Ravenhill come next April. Having missed out last season, and then losing to Saracens at Twickenham, Ulster were kicking themselves. This season there must not be such a mistake made. The stats don’t lie – the vast majority of sides that have had home quarter-finals have progressed to the semi-finals. It pays dividends not to have to travel.

We could end up looking at a crucial match at Welford Road in January against Leicester depending on how their matches go. But presuming they go as predicted we may find ourselves having a knockout match before the knockout round, and what a game it will be if both sides can get their full teams back and raring to go.

But before that, we are back to Pro12 action against Cardiff next week, and there’s the Heineken Cup double-header in December against Treviso to navigate as well. What you can say though is that we have a lot of exciting rugby to look forward to this season, and hopefully we will be treated to lots of great games, all Ulster wins of course!

And it wasn’t just Ulster who were in the winning mood this weekend, as all four Irish provinces were victorious in what was a Super Saturday of rugby for Irish rugby fans.

First up were Connacht who made the trip to Italy to take on Zebre. Thanks to tries from George Naoupu and Mata Fifita, along with twenty-three points from the boot of Dan Parks gave the Westies an impressive 33-6 win which keeps their Heineken Cup dreams alive, although with back-to-backs against Toulouse in December, they may be over sooner rather than later. Nevertheless, it’s good to see Connacht getting another win against any opposition, especially in the Heineken Cup.

Next up were Leinster who took complete control of Pool One with a win over Castres. Admittedly I didn’t see the game as I was watching our match (obviously), but it seems like the Leinster bandwagon is back on track once more and they are just as good under Matt O’Connor as they were under Joe Schmidt. However, their back-to-backs against Northampton will be must-wins if they want a home quarter-final.

And finally it was Munster’s turn to make it four from four, which they did so with a controlling victory over Gloucester at Thomond Park. Rob Penney will be very happy his side got off the mark in the Heineken Cup at the second attempt, although similarly to Leinster, if they want to have any chance of being at home in the quarters then they definitely have to win away in Perpignan – easier said than done.

NO FEAR IN FRANCE

My initial reaction after the game on Friday night was slightly upset. You’re probably wondering why considering we’d just beaten the current Aviva Premiership champions, and slightly convincingly at that too. However, on the other hand, we let them away with something that may prove extremely crucial at the end of this pool campaign: the losing bonus point.

I think even the Leicester fans will admit that we probably were the better side in that match and we deserved to win it, however they will be absolutely delighted to leave with the point from the game. They came to Ravenhill with that aim firmly in mind. A win would have been a bonus, but to leave with the point probably puts them in pole position in the pool.

In what is a very competitive pool, bonus points may prove crucial, as they did two years ago. To let them away with the losing bonus point at the very end of the game is very disappointing, and as much as Mark Anscombe will defend that we are happy with just winning the game, but the unavoidable (and annoying truth) is that Leicester will be more than happy with the point (as highlighted by David Mele kicking the ball out at the end) and Ulster will be angry that they got it.

On the other hand, you have to win your home games in the Heineken Cup and that comes first. Four points on the board is exactly what Ulster required and it means we go to Montpellier next weekend with a chance to take a massive step towards the knock-out round. It will be a massive ask too, but one that we are perfectly capable of answering.

It’s a good job we won in Castres last season though. If we were going to the bearpit that is the Stade Yves-du-Manoir with the French hoodoo still hanging over us then I doubt we’d be as confident as we are right now. With the boost of a solid comeback win over the Ospreys and that controlled win over Leicester, right now we could easily return from the south of France with the win.

However, Montpellier are a very very strong side. They have signed well over the summer – Nicolas Mas is a massive acquisition for their squad, while in the backs Jonathan Pelissié has been a superb signing at scrum-half, while Anthony Tuitavaké and Wynand Olivier have added another dimension to their back line. They aren’t many people’s favourites to win the Top14 outright for no reason.

Therefore, Ulster will have to be at their very best to even leave with a bonus point on Saturday, which is definitely the minimum that they must leave with. You saw Leicester’s joy when they left Ravenhill with a losing bonus point – I will be that happy if we do the same this weekend. As Clermont and Toulouse have found out, the Stade Yves-du-Manoir is a difficult place to go to and get a result.

However, it all depends on the team Montpellier put out. I reckon it will be a strong team, however considering they are doing well domestically it wouldn’t be completely surprising if they put out a weakened team to keep them fresh for their league campaign instead. No matter what team they put out, Montpellier will probably be the biggest test we have faced this season so far.

Slightly confident this week. Emphasis on slightly.

Heineken highlights

I’m going to sum up the Heineken Cup weekend in three S’s.

SUNDAY – What a Sunday that was. Firstly we had Exeter steamrolling over Cardiff, then Cardiff coming back in the second half to take the try bonus point. That was some game, one that couldn’t be repeated, right? Wrong! Only half an hour later, the exact same thing happened in Toulon as the home side crushed Glasgow in the first half, only for Glasgow to score the four tries in the second half. You’ve got to love the magic of the Heineken Cup.

SCARLETS – Hands down the win of the weekend. The misfiring Scarlets haven’t been in the greatest form, but inspired by Liam, Scott and Jordan Williams, the Llanelli side romped to a 33-26 victory at the Twickenham Stoop, against an also-misfiring Harlequins side. Conor O’Shea said after the match he was “furious” at his team and rightly so, they never got out of the starting blocks and they were rightly beaten. A massive blow for the Quins who went 6 from 6 last season, their chances at reaching the quarters have been hugely reduced.

SHOCKS – And not big shocks like you expect. OK, there was one as winless Edinburgh managed to take all four points at Murrayfield against Munster who now face an uphill battle to get a home quarter-final. Connacht nearly beat Saracens at the Sportsground on Friday night, while Treviso managed to limit the superstars of Montpellier to just two tries and Racing Metro managed to defeat Clermont Auvergne. The Heineken Cup never fails to disappoint.

HEINEKEN HISTORY

So here we go, what could be the final season of the Heineken Cup ever. It’s rather sad isn’t it, to think that what is one of the standout competitions in rugby history could be finished at the end of the season without so much as a whimper. But it’s not gone yet, and we’ve got another season of European rugby to look forward to, and I've done a bit of a preview for you. Enjoy!

Pool One: Leinster Rugby, Northampton Saints, Ospreys, Castres Olympique

Oh what a pool this is. The RaboDirect Pro12 champions, the Top14 champions and the Aviva Premiership runners-up going head-to-head in a classic tussle. And hey, why not add in the Ospreys too? This pool is going to depend on how much Leinster miss Sexton and Nacewa. If Madigan and Kirchner can step up and fill the gap then they should have the pool under wraps, but if not then the Saints and the Ospreys will fancy their chances – especially with the Welsh side’s record in Dublin. I fancy Leinster to do it, however they will have to be wary as the Saints will pose them a lot of questions and the Ospreys can pull off results when they need to, especially at the Liberty. Sadly I think Castres will have to start well or they could simply throw it in the latter stages as per usual. Disappointing too – they are a quality side on their day.

Prediction: Leinster

Pool Two: RC Toulon, Cardiff Blues, Glasgow Warriors, Exeter Chiefs

Anybody who isn’t backing defending champions Toulon to come out of this pool with a perfect record is either deluded or should be in a mental asylum. As far as pools go, they could not have got much of an easier path to the quarter-finals and barring a miracle from one of the other sides, they probably have top seeds in the knockouts wrapped up as well. That leaves the other three fighting it out for second and if Glasgow can carry over their superb Pro12 form to the Heineken Cup then they could well take one of the best runner-up spots. Cardiff haven’t threatened much in Europe for a while so I think they’ll be out of the equation, but don’t rule out Exeter either. They ran both Leinster and Clermont quite close last season at Sandy Park for a while, so expect travelling sides to struggle, and maybe they can cause an upset.

Prediction: Toulon

Pool Three: Stade Toulousain, Saracens, Connacht Rugby, Zebre

It’s a two-horse race for top spot in this pool and both Toulouse and Saracens will fancy their chances. With twenty points (probably) racked up from the Connacht and Zebre games, it’s more than likely that both giants will reach the knockouts, but who finishes top is another question entirely. Saracens have started the season stronger so I’ll back them to finish top (just), but Toulouse will push them all the way. Meanwhile Connacht will probably hold off Zebre for third place, but boosted by their first Pro12 win, I can see the Italians getting a first European win too.

Prediction: Saracens to win pool, Toulouse to be one of the best runners-up

Pool Four: ASM Clermont Auvergne, Harlequins, Scarlets, Racing Metro 92

This is a tighter pool than a lot of people think. On paper you would presume that Clermont would be the easy winners here, but Harlequins didn’t go six from six last season for nothing, and the big-spending Racing will certainly have something to say about that too. However Clermont usually have enough power to see the pool through and the relative inexperience of the other two sides may haunt them in the big games. Harlequins may take one of the best runner-up spots but they will probably have to win away in France at least once. The Scarlets will have to front up big time to even get on the board this time around.

Prediction: Clermont

Pool Five: Ulster Rugby, Leicester Tigers, Montpellier Herault, Benetton Rugby Treviso

How could I predict anybody else to win the pool but Ulster? Even so, this will be a massive test for Ulster as they come up against the unmistakable might of Leicester and the upcoming brilliance of Montpellier, a side who have hammered Clermont 43-3, not an easy task at all. Nevertheless, I back Ulster to have the firepower to just sneak the pool. If Montpellier are lagging behind early on then they might throw the pool like Castres, but Leicester will fight to the death (always good to see!) and will push the Ulstermen all the way. It could boil down to who can take their bonus points from Treviso in the end.

Prediction: Ulster to win the pool, Leicester to be one of the best runners-up

Pool Six: Munster Rugby, USA Perpignan, Edinburgh Rugby, Gloucester Rugby

How Ulster wish they could have got this pool and not Munster. If Munster do not go through as pool winners here then they are in big big trouble because this is pretty much as easy as you get. Perpignan are one of the easier French sides in the competition this year, Edinburgh are on a complete decline and Gloucester are yet to return to the lofty heights they were at. In essence, Munster will easily reach the quarter-finals, and will only be stopped from being top knockout seeds by Toulon. Perpignan will have the “French factor” on their side to finish second, while Gloucester should have the muscle to oust Edinburgh into third. But really, this pool is more about who can limit Munster to the least points, than who can qualify.

Prediction: Munster

Ruan is an Ulsterman

Thank heavens that he did not sign for Toulon, and thank heavens that he is staying at Ulster until 2017!

I’d say I was always confident he’d stay, but I’d be lying! Nevertheless it is absolutely incredible news for Ulster, especially with the current Heineken Cup debate going on, and what a boost it will provide the Ulstermen with ahead of their biggest game of the season so far. And to be honest, I don’t think I could be happier right now!

Stand up for the Ulstermen, and stand up for Ruan Pienaar!