NEW YEAR, NEW CHALLENGES

I don’t quite know how to start this week because Saturday was a complete disaster.

Based on how we played, it would be a fair assumption to say that half of our players were still at home having Christmas dinner on Saturday evening. Of the entire starting fifteen probably only Robbie Diack and Dan Tuohy could hold their heads high at the end of the game, and had Ruan Pienaar and Jared Payne not been introduced when they were, then the final assault on the Leinster line probably wouldn’t have happened either.

Saturday emphasised how much we rely on a few players. You could see a visible difference in the way we played once Pienaar and Payne came on, and without Muller’s leadership and John Afoa’s scrummaging prowess, we struggled to break down a Leinster team which featured many of their second string players.

Admittedly, we did not play well on the day, that’s an unavoidable fact. While it is well and good criticising our strength in depth and our reliance on our non-Irish qualified players, the bottom line is we just did not perform on the day. The RDS is a hard place to go a win, even when you are in-form, so to try and win playing as we were was close to rugby suicide.

But probably the worst part of it all was we didn’t come away from the game with anything to show for it. Had we scored at the end and secured a losing bonus point, it would have softened the blow considerably and would have kept us in the top four of the Pro12. In truth, we probably didn’t deserve the bonus point, but certainly when you compared the two sides on the field, it was the minimum we wanted to leave with.

Therefore, it puts us in a difficult position. Saturday was the first game of four huge clashes in the Pro12 and the Heineken Cup which will define our season, and it would be a fair assessment to say we’ve already stumbled at the first hurdle. Now we face the daunting task of welcoming Munster, who have lost just two games all season, to Ravenhill in what looks like being a must-win game to save our Pro12 season.

Lose, and we will face a massive uphill battle just to reach fourth place in the league and travel away in the play-offs. Right now we’ve lost the same number of games domestically than we did in the whole of last season – for us to be in with a shout at the end of the season then we must be looking at only one or two more losses at worst. Losing this week would be a bad start.

Undoubtedly, the performances must improve. Some claim that our poor performance in Dublin was down to the fact that we faced the two Italian sides four weeks in a row – we couldn’t raise the intensity. This week we can have no such excuse coming off a hugely physical clash, so we should be able to replicate Leinster’s intensity and bring it to this Friday’s match. This week we must get out of the blocks quickly and gain a foothold in the game – the exact opposite to what happened on Saturday.

Expect a full side out at Ravenhill ahead of the following Heineken Cup matches against Montpellier and Leicester. This is the crunch time of the season for teams looking to compete on two fronts, and Ulster will be targeting all three wins which would keep them in the hunt for the Pro12 play-offs and would secure a home quarter-final in the Heineken Cup too, as well as a six from six record in the European pool stages too.

It’s a huge three weeks just into the New Year, and it provides Ulster the perfect opportunity to forget about what happened a week previous and focus on making 2014 a good year for the province. With Johann Muller, Tom Court and John Afoa all confirmed to be leaving at the end of the season, it’s a chance to provide these players with a final shot at winning some silverware with their adopted provinces.

Three weeks, three wins is the aim, and in the context of Ulster’s season, this is possibly required. Our Pro12 hopes wouldn’t be over with a loss on Friday, but they would take a massive hit if we did, and if we travelled away in the Heineken Cup quarter-finals for the fourth year running, then that would be a huge blow after our brilliant win in Montpellier. It’s a big test for us, and if we want to be one of the best in Europe, then we must pass it with flying colours.

Happy New Year everyone!

FIGHT TO THE DEATH

Well this weekend was just full of surprises wasn’t it!

Thankfully we registered our bonus point on Saturday afternoon. We made hard work of it, but thanks to some brilliant skill from Andrew Trimble, we did manage to cross the line four times against Treviso. And if we want to finish top of the pool then we’ll need all the points we can get, especially after Sunday’s result.

All credit to Leicester, they stuck in there for the full eighty unlike their hosts, but Montpellier really should have won that match and they know it. Even with a depleted squad they had a six point lead heading into the final few minutes and they were looking strong. However, they couldn’t hold out the last Tigers attack, and Vereniki Goneva’s last-minute try was enough to hand the visitors victory.

What does it mean? Well, with Ulster at home to Montpellier and Leicester away to Treviso in Round Five, it looks increasingly likely that we’re going to have a winner-takes-all match at Welford Road in Round Six. And what a game that will be – the difference between being at Ravenhill in the quarter-finals, or away to one of the best sides in Europe. As I like to say – the stats don’t lie: the vast majority of sides at home in the quarter-finals of the Heineken Cup win their matches.

Well, as long as neither side manage to mess up their Round Five games, however that looks very unlikely. With Treviso in disarray after the departure of Franco Smith, and Montpellier’s interest in the Heineken Cup very low, you wouldn’t put it past both Ulster and Leicester to come away with try bonus points from their respective matches.

From an Ulster perspective, they will want to put Montpellier to the sword at Ravenhill, and then hope Treviso can do them a favour at the Stadio di Monigo by beating Leicester, or at least deny the Tigers the four-try bonus point. If that scenario played out then Ulster would head to Welford Road, not only qualified for the quarter-finals but knowing that a losing bonus point would secure them the win of the pool.

There are many permutations possible of course, but right now the showdown at Welford Road looks like the most likely outcome. However, the game is so far away it’s too hard to tell how it will go, so instead we will switch our attention back to the Pro12 this weekend as the final game of our Italian Job saga is played out as Zebre make the journey to Ravenhill.

I’m not going to lie, we need to get our Pro12 challenge going. We’re not too far behind Munster, but if we want to finish top of the regular season standings then we’ll have to start getting a lot of points racked up as quickly as possible. Take into account that we’ll probably send down a weakened side to Leinster and we’ll be even further behind the league leaders after that result.

Therefore this weekend we must get a bonus point on the board. Zebre are not great opposition as we all know – they’ve just been beaten 67-3 by Saracens – so we really should be looking to score at least four tries against them, ideally more. If not then we could be playing catch up very early in the season, something which we are not very good at.

Certainly, these next five games for Ulster will more or less define their season. Zebre needs to be targeted as a five-pointer as I have mentioned, Leinster is a case of maybe getting home with a losing bonus point, Munster at home is a big big match where we could gain a very important four points while hurting one of our title rivals as well, while the two Heineken Cup matches in January are very important as we all know.

Winter is when teams start to find out where they are in regards to challenging for trophies – Ulster need to go into the Six Nations break knowing that they have a realistic chance of winning both trophies again. That may mean at least four wins out of five is required from these next few games – a big ask, but not an impossible task.

The winter action continues this Friday – we’re not at Christmas yet, so the action must continue. A few players may be rested, but expect a very strong Ulster side going all out to try and get a crucial bonus point which would put them back in contention for the top spot in the Pro12.

The Christmas crackers continue!

EASING AWAY

Saturday and Sunday confirmed to us what most of us could have probably guessed already – it’s a two horse race for Pool Five now.

With Montpellier only getting one point at Welford Road, it leaves them eight points adrift of Ulster at the top of the pool, and based on the first twenty minutes in Leicester, it looks like they couldn’t care less. Whatever mindset the French were in, it was completely the wrong one because those three tries they conceded were fairly weak tries. It means the Hérault have a slim to none chance of qualifying now and, as per usual with French teams, their interest will likely wane and return to the Top14.

Credit to Leicester, they did what had to be done, and they did it with a bonus point. Full credit to Ryan Lamb for holding his nerve at the end to land that drop goal as well. Had that not gone over then maybe Montpellier would maintain a little bit of belief for the rest of the pool. This Sunday’s return match between those two will be an absolute cracker if Montpellier decide to give it a go.

It will be of massive importance to Ulster as well. They will most definitely be hoping for a home win on Sunday as it would give them a substantial lead in the pool and could see them qualify for the knock-outs with a game to spare. Having done the job themselves (and in emphatic fashion at that), Ulster are now hoping other results will go their way to allow them the opportunity to head to Welford Road in January knowing the only thing they’re competing for is a home quarter-final, rather than qualification itself.

Sorry, I’m getting way ahead of myself here – we still have two games to play before we even reach Round Six, and they are two very different games.

The one coming up this weekend is a repeat of Saturday’s match against Treviso, only this time it will be staged at the Stadio di Monigo. And having defeated their opponents 48-0 last weekend, Ulster will definitely be the more confident of the two sides – their tactics worked perfectly and with Mark Anscombe set to name the same side for the second week running, the only question remaining to be answered is whether he will adopt the same tactics or not.

The game seems to be a write-off for most pundits. The manner in which Ulster took apart the Italians has led to many asking not whether Ulster will win, but instead, how many by. However, Ulster know that they cannot underestimate their opponents like last year – after going to Franklin's Gardens and winning against Northampton with a bonus point last season, Ulster managed to mess it up next week and lose at home to the same opposition. Anscombe and his team will be desperate to ensure the same thing does not happen this season, especially whenever a home quarter-final is a real possibility if they can keep their form going.

In fact, it was that loss in Round Four last season that probably cost them a home quarter-final – and the stats don’t lie, having home advantage in the knockouts can be the difference between reaching the semis and not. This season, Ulster know they cannot make the same mistake if they have any real aspirations of winning the Heineken Cup, and to really boost their chances of a home quarter-final then a bonus point is probably required this weekend as well.

But the main aim should be for Ulster to get the win first. If Montpellier win on Sunday then the pool will firmly be in Ulster’s hands and with one win in Round Five, they will be safely in the quarter-finals with one shot at bringing knockout rugby to Ravenhill for the first time since 1999. That is the long-term aim, but for now Ulster have to realise that getting four points registered is the most important goal right now.

There must be no complacency, Treviso could easily cause a shock – look at Connacht last weekend, proving that the Heineken Cup will always throw up its fair share of shocks. Ulster have to ensure that they aren’t part of one of those this Saturday. Realistically, however, if Ulster want to be seen as real contenders for the Heineken Cup this season then another five-pointer is what is required.

And to be quite honest, with the quality of opposition that Ulster face, that shouldn’t be a problem.

EUROPEAN EXCITEMENT?

The Heineken Cup is the best club competition in rugby – not many people would argue with that. And with the French clubs all but signing on for next season, it’s looking like there will be at least one more year of exciting European rugby to look forward to – although it may be at the expense of the English clubs who appear to still be dragging their heels over the issue.

Nevertheless, it is back this weekend and for some reason I’m not feeling the usual excitement that I feel whenever Heineken Cup weekends come around.

It may be down to our opposition in the traditional December back-to-back games. It’s not that Treviso are sub-standard, because they will provide a very stern test for us, but compared to the might of Leicester and Montpellier, the Italians certainly are not in the same league as them. This is of course not a smear against Treviso, as I said the last time we played them I have the utmost respect for Franco Smith and what he has done with his team, but even they will admit that they cannot match the might of the other three teams in the pool.

Therefore we head into this game knowing that only two wins will do – and preferably with a couple of bonus points thrown in there for good measure. I was doing a bit of thinking yesterday and if we managed to get the maximum haul from these two games, and Montpellier and Leicester shared the points in their head-to-head, then we’d go into the January matches with an eight point lead in the pool. That is a massive incentive for the players – to go into our final two matches knowing one win would see us through as pool winners (and likely home quarter finalists) would be an incredible confidence booster.

But that has to be second in our thoughts. As I have said, Treviso are a much improved outfit, and while we should have enough to see them off easily at home, they will be a handful at the Stadio di Monigo. Like all teams, they do not like to lose at home, and boast the record of being the only side to defeat Munster in the league this season – coincidentally, that came at the Monigo.

With one away win in the bag, we simply have to stay on the winning trail to be right in with a chance of coming away with that home quarter-final spot. Admittedly, winning at Welford Road in Round Six will be an extremely difficult task, but with any luck we’ll have top spot in the pool wrapped up already and we’ll simply be shooting for the six from six record. For now, eight points must be the minimum aim. If the chance for a bonus point arises then by all means go for it.

However, our squad is still looking very thin. With Stuart Olding, Rory Best and Chris Henry still out injured, and Jared Payne and Johann Muller likely to only make the bench for this week’s game, we’re missing five key players from our starting line-up from a game where nothing less than a win will suffice, and where five points is very much preferred. If we could manufacture the scenario I have mentioned above then we will be in one of the best positions we have been in in the Heineken Cup – ever.

In other words, there is a lot more riding on this match than there first appears to be. It seems like a foregone conclusion that Ulster will win this weekend, although that isn’t even guaranteed yet. With the pressure of the position we could put ourselves in combined with the heat of the moment, anything can happen in the Heineken Cup. Just remember, only two seasons ago we came the closest possibly any side has ever been to beating Clermont Auvergne at the Stade Marcel Michelin, and Aironi defeated Biarritz in their only ever win! The Heineken Cup will always throw up upsets. We need to be on our guard to make sure Saturday isn’t one of them.

As the nights become shorter and the days become colder, there’s still Ulster Rugby to look forward to, and hopefully the two sides play out another Christmas cracker for us this weekend and next. To be honest, I don’t care what the scorelines are – as long as Ulster are on the right side of them both!

And maybe throw in a lot of tries for good measure!

Elsewhere…

I’ve decided to bring back my predictions because I’ve missed them too much! You and I both know my success rate will be very low, but ach well – it’s just a bit of fun!

Cardiff Blues vs. Glasgow Warriors – Glasgow win

Castres Olympique vs. Ospreys – Castres win

Exeter Chiefs vs. Toulon – Toulon win

Zebre vs. Saracens – Saracens win

ASM Clermont Auvergne vs. Scarlets – Clermont win

Racing Métro 92 vs. Harlequins – Racing win

Northampton Saints vs. Leinster – Northampton win

Ulster Rugby vs. Benetton Treviso – Ulster win

Munster Rugby vs. Perpignan – Munster win

Edinburgh Rugby vs. Gloucester Rugby – Gloucester win

Leicester Tigers vs. Montpellier – Leicester win

Toulouse vs. Connacht Rugby – Toulouse win