SEXTON JUST THE START?

There was no shortage of rumours floating about this month. Rumours that Jonny Sexton was going to leave Leinster and head off to France to play for Racing Metro. Nobody really believed them – nobody thought that he would actually consider leaving his boyhood club, especially when they are one of the most successful in Europe.

However, on Friday the incredible was confirmed – Jonny Sexton will not be playing club rugby in Ireland next season. Since he was unable to agree a new central contract with the IRFU, he will leave Leinster, and it is likely he will be plying his trade in France for the 2013/2014 season.

And he leaves Ireland to mixed views…

Provincial problems

You may think this doesn’t affect Ulster. Wrong. This could affect Ulster a lot.

Sexton is the first “big name” Irish player to head overseas in the prime of his career. Back in 2008 there were rumours that Brian O’Driscoll was signing for Biarritz, but they never amounted to anything. But this move has certainly ruffled a few feathers in the rugby world – and not only in Ireland.

For the past few years we’ve watched the Welsh exodus. Players such as Lee Byrne, Gethin Jenkins and Aled Brew heading off across the English Channel to France to try and further their careers, and since then Welsh regional rugby has declined dramatically. It is still ongoing with Dan Lydiate, Jamie Roberts and Toby Faletau announcing they will all be departing Wales at the end of the season to unnamed clubs.

The worry now is that the same could happen in Ireland.

Sexton has bucked the trend, so to say. Before now, a player declining a central contract would have been unheard of. But this could be the spark that ignites the flame. If one player moves and enjoys his time over in France, then he’ll recommend it to other Irish players who are considering the move. There is a certain domino effect that will come into play, and could be a big problem for the heads at the IRFU.

This is where it may affect Ulster. If some of Ulster’s big stars like Stephen Ferris or Rory Best see how well Sexton does in France, they may think to themselves, “I want some of that,” and suddenly Ulster will have to cope with their departures. Now, obviously this is all speculation, but if Wales is anything to go by then this could happen. However, you’d like to believe that Ulster’s players are loyal to the end and will see out their careers in Belfast.

Back to Leinster though and their woes don’t end there – this week they’ve also lost promising winger Andrew Conway to Munster and Springbok prop Heinke van der Merwe to Stade Francais. Combine that with being knocked out of the Heineken Cup, it’s been a pretty bad week for the Dubliners.

And rumours would suggest it may get worse before it gets any better…

Six Nations preview

With no Pro12 or Heineken Cup action to entertain us, we may as well turn our attention to the Six Nations and how it will turn out this season:

ENGLAND

Coach: Stuart Lancaster
Captain: Chris Robshaw
Stadium: Twickenham, London
Last season: 2^nd

England are a robust side and will take their great win over the All Blacks into this tournament. They will be very hard to beat and few sides will wish to face them needing a win. With the fixtures they have this season, as much as I don’t want them to, I feel they will have enough to win the tournament, but not the Grand Slam.

Prediction: 1^st

FRANCE

Coach: Phillippe Saint-Andre
Captain: Pascal Pape
Stadium: Stade de France, Paris
Last season: 4^th

France are always a classy team and really enjoyable to watch, but quite often that doesn’t always lead to the right results. Their away form is patchy too and it’s not unheard of for a French team to fall to a shock away loss. They have too much talent in their ranks to not be competitive, but they should just be beaten to it by England.

Prediction: 2^nd

IRELAND

Coach: Declan Kidney
Captain: Jamie Heaslip
Stadium: Aviva Stadium, Dublin
Last season: 3^rd

Ireland are hard to predict this year. Unless Declan Kidney gets his act together and learns to drop the old guard then Ireland won’t get anywhere. With the fixtures they have this could be a good year for the Irishmen, but I fear with the team that will play it won’t be enough to even finish in the top half.

Prediction: 4^th

ITALY

Coach: Jacques Brunel
Captain: Sergio Parisse
Stadium: Stadio Olimpico, Rome
Last season: 5^th

Jacques Brunel said last week that Italy aren’t the whipping boys of a few years ago. Unfortunately the games they stood a chance in are away from home and that should contribute to yet another season without a win in the Six Nations. Brunel is right on one aspect though – sides should not underestimate them, or they will be punished.

Prediction: 6^th

SCOTLAND

Coach: Scott Johnson
Captain: Kelly Brown
Stadium: Murrayfield, Edinburgh
Last season: 6^th

After a superb win over Australia in the summer, Scotland haven’t really pushed on and then lost to Fiji in Aberdeen, costing Andy Robinson his job. Scott Johnson has taken over, but he’s simply joining a sinking ship. The fact that they play Italy at home is the only thing that will keep them from finishing last.

Prediction: 5^th

WALES

Coach: Warren Gatland
Captain: Sam Warburton
Stadium: Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
Last season: 1^st – Grand Slam winners

Wales have fallen a long way from the Grand Slam winning side from last season. The players aren’t that different, but their confidence has been hit badly after a highly unsuccessful autumn series. If they can return to the form they showed last season then they stand a chance of winning the tournament, but their fixtures may prove too difficult to win them all.

Prediction: 3^rd

ALL ROADS LEAD TO THE AVIVA

So now we know how Ulster will win the Heineken Cup – that is, if they manage to overcome all the obstacles in the first place. After their first win in France, a rather scrappy yet deserved win over Castres, they will head to the quarter-finals in April with quite a bit of confidence – even if they are away.

They know they can win away in the Heineken Cup. They’ve done it three times this season already and there are plenty of memories still vivid in the minds of the Heineken Cup quarter-final last year down in Limerick. It’s not impossible to win away.

April can’t come quickly enough…

Looking ahead

First up will be an away trip to Saracens in London. Or Milton Keynes. Or maybe even further afield. The number of venues that Saracens have been at this season is ridiculous. And that’s just their home venues.

Stadium:mk in Northampton, Vicarage Road in Watford, Wembley and Twickenham in London – even Brussels in Belgium have been used as home grounds by the Saracens this season! They are moving into a new stadium in February (the Allianz Park in Barnet), but the moving about will have done nothing for their fan base except agitate them. The new stadium isn’t exactly handy either – it’s half an hour away from where the majority of their supporters are based.

The game is likely to be played either in the Allianz Park or Vicarage Road. If they can get in temporary seating then it will go to the Allianz. If not, they’ll head back to the Vicarage for their third final match at the stadium, after they said an early goodbye at the end of last season and on Sunday as well.

Out of all of the home quarter-final teams, Saracens are probably the easiest. Not that they are an easy team to play, not at all. But Harlequins very rarely lose at the Twickenham Stoop, Clermont haven’t lost at the Stade Marcel-Michelin in 53 games, and Toulon have so many star players in their ranks that nobody wants to face them.

Ulster can win the game. But they’ll have to get all of their big players back and play at the top of their game. Sarries play a very dull game, but it is very effective. They barrel their way forward through their big men up front and then use Owen Farrell to kick the penalties they get. It will be crucial for Ulster to match them up front and then outclass them in the backs. Getting Nick Williams back in time could prove the difference.

The winners will then play the winners of Toulon vs. Leicester at home. Speaking of that match, it will be some battle as well. Leicester have proved this season that they can mix it with the best, grinding out their win over Toulouse with relative ease. However, Toulon, with the riches of talent they have in their ranks, should have enough to see them off with points to spare. Expect Leicester to come out fighting though.

The other two quarter-finals should be home bankers though. As much as I want Munster to win in the Twickenham Stoop, I just cannot see that happening. Harlequins are much better in every area and should breeze through. They would then go away to Clermont or Montpellier in the semi-finals – with the former likely to be those opponents. Their home form is remarkable and Montpellier are unlikely to end their unrivalled record. Expect a lot of tries to be run in.

Right now, I’d put money on an Ulster vs. Clermont final. However there is a lot of rugby to be played between then and now and a lot can change. No matter what happens though, it’s looking like it will be a cracking weekend of rugby in April.

Leinster in a good place

You’re probably questioning this. After losing both home and away to Heineken Cup favourites Clermont, Leinster are now out of the Heineken Cup and most now turn their attentions to the second tier tournament in Europe – the Amlin Challenge Cup. Most notably, they definitely won’t be in the Aviva to defend their trophy.

However, the Amlin is not a bad competition. Look at the quality that is in it this year – Toulouse, Perpignan, Gloucester and Stade Francais will line up alongside Leinster to try and emerge victorious, and the Boys in Blue will have to be on top form to win. None of those sides will go down without a fight.

The way the draw has been made, I’m going for a Leinster vs. Toulouse final in the RDS. That is, if Leinster take the tournament seriously. There is the concern that they will see it as the “secondary” competition and simply field a second side in order to focus on the league. In my opinion, this would be a poor call.

Firstly because it would be criminal to spurn the chance of a trophy. Leinster are by far the strongest side in the competition, and if they put their minds to it, they could walk this tournament. Easily. A trophy in the cabinet will look very nice at the end of the season and will go a long way to boosting their confidence for next season.

Also, it will be the more likely way of Connacht to get back into the Heineken Cup. If Leinster win, then all four provinces will be back in Europe’s premier competition next season, and if the IRFU really want the Westies to grow as a province, then this must happen. It would be incredibly selfish of Leinster to throw it.

In all honesty, it’s Leinster’s to lose – and hopefully they don’t…

ALL GUNS BLAZING

Forget everything I’ve said before – this match is the biggest challenge Ulster have faced this season, bar none. It is time for Ulster to “go for broke” as they say. Nothing less than five points will be enough this weekend for a home quarter-final, and that is the ultimate goal.

The task at hand isn’t easy. Nor is it overly difficult. But it’s the kind of test that Ulster really couldn’t do with right now, because the injuries are really stacking up – fourteen are now sidelined, with Jared Payne and Nick Williams joining that list from last week.

We’re heading to the south of France…

Levez-vous pour les Ulstermen!

There is one factor that works against Ulster from the very beginning – history. Ulster have never won a competitive match in France. Ever. That is one huge burden to be carrying to Castres this weekend. But it is one that Ulster will be determined to be rid of as soon as possible. Until they can be taken as a serious threat, they must be able to win in some of the toughest grounds in the continent. That starts tomorrow.

It’s not a makeshift side that Ulster will send over, but it is certainly not their strongest either, Injuries mean that the side that will take to the field tomorrow will contain a number of players that wouldn’t normally feature in a Heineken Cup team – most notably Mike Allen at wing, who will be making his full debut at the age of 22.

Against a side such as Castres, a coach would love to have as many players available to him as possible. However, as it is, Mark Anscombe will have to select from his limited squad and have to do as well as he can with that. It is testament to how he has brought on this side, however, that even with so many injuries Ulster can be competitive and the fans are still in the belief that five points are obtainable.

Players like Neil McComb and Robbie Diack were fringe players last season, struggling to make an impact on the first team. Yet this season they have been in inspired form and have been an integral part of Ulster’s Pro12 campaign, and their Heineken Cup challenge too.

Mike Allen and Chris Cochrane were both youth players last season and now they find themselves in a Heineken Cup team looking to secure a home quarter-final. Anscombe has blooded these young players and is now reaping the rewards – he has a young core at the centre of his team with plenty of players eager to make the step up from academy to first team.

As for the opposition, Castres are one of the toughest sides to go away to looking for a bonus point win. They are very rarely beaten at the Stade Pierre-Antoine, let alone beaten by four tries. They pride themselves on a solid defence and a strong pack – both will be utilised tomorrow. With nothing really to play for in the Heineken Cup anymore, their aim will be to cause a shock by beating the pool winners and denying them their home quarter-final.

Their star player is undoubtedly Rory Kockott. The South African has the ability to be a game changer from 9, much like Ulster’s own Springbok scrum-half, and has a boot that can ping the corners all afternoon. However, his commitment to his team could be questioned as there are plenty of rumours linking him with a move north to Racing Metro in the summer. Watch out for the familiar face of Pedrie Wannenburg too – he could come on and have a massive impact.

How will Ulster win? By getting an early lead. If they can get on the scoreboard first and then keep it ticking over, Castres will lose interest. They have a Top14 match next Thursday against Bayonne, and with nothing to play for in Europe, their attention will turn to it instead. Once their heads go down and their intensity drops, Ulster can strike.

Ulster must also make full use of their bench. At the late stages of the match, players like Chris Cochrane and Paul Marshall must come on to try and inject some pace into a the backline when it is tiring. In the forwards, the front row will have to be changed at some point, as Court, Best and Afoa will probably find it difficult to stand up to the Castres scrum for the whole 80.

It is a big weekend for Ulster, and there is a slight worry that the side they have available may not have enough to get four tries. But if they are committed and play to their best, then anything is possible in the Heineken Cup. However, I feel that four tries is just one step too far, and Ulster will be relying on Edinburgh to do them a favour on Sunday against the Saracens. Prediction – Ulster by 8.

Teams

Castres make nine changes to the side that lost 12-18 to Northampton last Friday. Pierre Bernard, Seremaia Bai and Remi Tales come into the back line, while upfront Yannick Forestier and Marc-Antoine Rallier come into the front row to bolster the Castres scrum. Matthias Rolland is called up to the second row and it is an all-changed back row of Mathieu Babillot, Piula Faasalele and ex-Ulster player Pedrie Wannenburg.

Ulster make six changes to their side – due to injuries to Jared Payne and Nick Williams, Mike Allen and Roger Wilson are brought into the starting line up, while Neil McComb replaces Iain Henderson in the second row. Paddy Jackson can only make the bench after recovering from a knock, so Paul Marshall starts at scrum-half with Ruan Pienaar moving out to fly-half.

At Stade Pierre-Antoine

Heineken Cup, Pool Game 6
Saturday 19^th January, 13:35 GMT
Live on Sky Sports 3 and Sky Sports 3HD

CASTRES OLYMPIQUE

15. Pierre Bernard, 14. Maxwell Evans, 13. Seremaia Bai, 12. Remi Lamerat, 11. Marcel Garvey, 10. Remi Tales, 9. Rory Kockott; 1. Yannick Forestier, 2. Marc-Antoine Rallier, 3. Anton Peikrishvili, 4. Matthias Rolland, 5. Christophe Samson, 6. Mathieu Babillot, 7. Piula Faasalele, 8. Pedrie Wannenburg.

16. Brice Mach, 17. Saimone Taumeopeau, 18. Mihaita Lazar, 19. Iosefa Tekori, 20. Thierry Lacrampe, 21. Jannie de bruin Bornman, 22. Paul Bonnefond, 23. Marc Andreu.

ULSTER RUGBY

15. Craig Gilroy, 14. Andrew Trimble, 13. Darren Cave, 12. Paddy Wallace, 11. Mike Allen, 10. Ruan Pienaar, 9. Paul Marshall; 1. Tom Court, 2. Rory Best, 3. John Afoa, 4. Lewis Stevenson, 5. Neil McComb, 6. Robbie Diack, 7. Chris Henry (c), 8. Roger Wilson.

16. Rob Herring, 17. Callum Black, 18. Declan Fitzpatrick, 19. Iain Henderson, 20. Mike McComish, 21. Michael Heaney, 22. Paddy Jackson, 23. Chris Cochrane.

Referee: Nigel Owens (Wales)

Assistant Referees: Sean Brickell (Wales), Jon Mason (Wales)
TMO: Derek Bevan (Wales)

Wrapping things up

A lot can happen on the last weekend of the Heineken Cup. Here we go…

Biarritz Olympique Pays Basque vs. Harlequins – Away win

Connacht Rugby vs. Zebre – Home win (BP)
Glasgow Warriors vs. Northampton Saints – Away win
Montpellier vs. Toulon – Away win
Cardiff Blues vs. Sale Sharks – Home win
Scarlets vs. ASM Clermont Auvergne – Away win
Exeter Chiefs vs. Leinster Rugby – Away win (BP)
Saracens vs. Edinburgh Rugby – Home win (BP)
Munster Rugby vs. Racing Metro 92 – Home win (BP)
Leicester Tigers vs. Toulouse – Home win
Benetton Treviso vs. Ospreys – Away win

FINAL RANKINGS

1. Harlequins
2. ASM Clermont Auvergne
3. Toulon
4. Saracens
5. Ulster Rugby
6. Leicester Tigers
7. Munster Rugby
8. Leinster Rugby

QUARTER-FINALS

Harlequins vs. Leinster Rugby
ASM Clermont Auvergne vs. Munster Rugby
Toulon vs. Leicester Tigers
Saracens vs. Ulster Rugby

OUT OF THEIR HANDS

Make no doubt about it, it was a great win on Friday night for Ulster. They had to hold off a spirited Glasgow fightback in the second half, but in the end they got there through tries by Jared Payne and an incredible Darren Cave solo effort. However, the injuries are beginning to mount up and that’ll make Ulster’s title challenge a bit harder.

And they have qualified for the Heineken Cup quarter-finals for the third year in a row – only this year they’ve achieved it one game earlier. It’s a nice feeling for Ulster fans everywhere knowing they have a knockout game to look forward to in April. But the job is only half done. Now they have to secure a home quarter-final at Ravenhill – that could be the difference between making the semis and not.

It might be out of their hands though…

Superb Saracens

Saracens were incredible, for all the wrong reasons. I know this is all about Ulster, but I feel I have to give them a lot of credit for the way they hung in against Racing Metro in Nantes and eventually came away with the win. They have the boot of Owen Farrell to thank – he slotted over ten penalties and a conversion for 32 points which was what gave them the win.

But it wasn’t really Saracens’ brilliance that won them the game. Rather, it was Racing’s poor discipline that cost them the four points. Despite racing (pun intended) over for three tries in the first 20 minutes, they couldn’t capitalise on their early lead and seemed determined to lose the match, conceding far too many kickable penalties.

And that leads me on nicely to what needs to happen next week for Ulster to secure that vital home quarter-final because it looks like it will only involve those two sides: Ulster and Saracens.

I’m going to make the assumption that Saracens will beat Edinburgh. I know a lot can happen in the Heineken Cup, but the two sides are near opposites as far as Heineken Cup exploits go. One is top of their pool, aiming for a quarter-final place. The other hasn’t got a point yet, and only scored their first try last week in Round Five. Saracens should have this one won.

So then it all comes down to Ulster and what they do. Unfortunately Saracens have two big advantages already before the games have even begun. The first is that they are at home. The second is that they play after Ulster, on the Sunday, which means that they will know what they have to do before they step on the pitch, whereas Ulster will simply have to go out and hope for the best.

Let’s start with the obvious way Ulster can get the home quarter – a bonus point win. If Ulster manage to secure the four tries and come away with the win on Saturday afternoon then they cannot be caught by anyone. However, away to Castres is never an easy game – especially when a side has as many injuries as Ulster do. This seems rather unlikely.

What does seem more likely is simply winning in Castres, which is highly possible. If that happens, then it all comes down to Vicarage Road on Sunday. If Saracens get the bonus point in their match then they will qualify ahead of Ulster. If not, then it will be Ulster who get that fourth seed spot.

If Ulster lose or draw then their destiny is well and truly out of their hands. Needless to say, only a win will do, with Toulouse, Leicester and Saracens all so close behind them. It’s do or die time for Ulster – if they want to have the best chance of getting to the final then a home quarter-final should be high on their list of priorities.

However that task has been made harder by the news that Nick Williams will be out for eight weeks through injury. Combined with injuries to Stephen Ferris, Johann Muller, Dan Tuohy, Tommy Bowe and a host of others, Ulster are weakened no ends. If they can acquire a home quarter-final then a lot of the credit should go to Mark Anscombe – the players seem to have adapted to his coaching style with ease and he has also brought through a lot of fringe players to be solid back-ups – a key to long-term success.

Next week will define Ulster’s Heineken Cup hopes. Let’s hope they’re still high by Sunday afternoon…

Irish highs, lows and in-betweens…

Leinster are, incredibly, halfway to the Great Escape. Seemingly out of the Heineken Cup after their double-header loss to Clermont back in December, the Dubliners set out with a steely determination to get 10 points that would give them a chance of making the quarter-finals, and smashed the Scarlets 33-14, notching up five tries. If they can get a bonus point against Exeter next week, then who knows? They might just make the knockouts.

On the flipside, Connacht were hit for six. For a while it seemed they would give Pool Three leaders Harlequins a run for their money. It wasn’t to be and they eventually limped home nursing the wounds of a 47-8 defeat. It knocks the Galway side out of the competition and means they can only focus on qualifying for the Amlin Challenge Cup – although they would require a try bonus point against Zebre, and for Biarritz to get nothing against Harlequins too.

And finally, it was a case of too little too late for Munster as, although they were victorious in Murrayfield on Sunday afternoon, they realistically needed a try bonus point to give themselves the best chance of qualifying for the quarter-finals. They will now feel the pressure on Sunday as they must get that try bonus point against Racing Metro at Thomond Park in order to stand a chance of going through. However, if both Leinster and Montpellier win on Saturday, the former with a bonus point, it may not even be enough…

CHAMPIONS ELECT?

So here we go – two games for Ulster to prove that they are one of the best sides in Europe. If they are to repeat the incredible feat of reaching the Heineken Cup final from last season then they will have to be at their very best for these two games, otherwise they could face an early exit from Europe altogether.

First up are Glasgow at Ravenhill, and after disposing of the Scarlets last weekend, Ulster will head into the game confident they can do the same to their closest Pro12 rivals this weekend too. But the Scots are high on confidence too after winning their last three games in a row, most recently seeing off Treviso by a 41-7 scoreline.

Time for Ulster to show if they can handle the pressure and live up to the hype…

One defeat can cause so many problems

It’s incredible what Ulster’s loss to Northampton has done for their quarter-final hopes. It hasn’t decreased the likelihood that they will get there – but the likelihood of them getting a home quarter-final has decreased dramatically. Had they beaten the Saints, Ulster would almost be guaranteed a home quarter-final if they won tomorrow. As it is, they are not.

What Ulster can do tomorrow is win the pool. If Northampton manage to beat Castres at Franklin’s Gardens, all Ulster have to do is to match their result to qualify. However, it is a case of easier said than done for Ulster, because Glasgow haven’t sent a side over to Belfast simply to make up the numbers.

The team that has come over is one that will undoubtedly challenge for the win. There is more than just points at stake for them – if they can come away from the game with the win that will be a massive boost for their Pro12 hopes. It will prove to themselves, and others, that they can win the big games, something that they haven’t really done over the last few years.

And that is exactly what Ulster will take strength from. Glasgow aren’t exactly thought of as a team that strikes fear into the hearts of their opponents and Ulster certainly won’t be thinking of them as any major threat. That said, they won’t be taking the Scotstoun side lightly either – they’re second in the Pro12 for a reason.

One of those reasons is the fact that they are incredibly hard to break down. The Glaswegians boast one of the best defences in Europe, which means Ulster will have to be on their clinical best to come away with the points.

When I use the phrase “clinical best”, it especially applies to one player – Nick Williams. Williams is back to his bruising best and Ulster need him to use his extreme strength to hit the Warriors defence. The flying wingers of Craig Gilroy and Andrew Trimble will both be looking to prove themselves ahead of the 6 Nations against strong opposition in Kiwi Sean Maitland and Canadian DTH van der Merwe.

Where the game will be won is in the scrum. Glasgow will try and use their scrum to counter-act Ulster’s dominance in the backs, but if Ulster gain the upper hand then they should have the base to really attack the Scots. If the forwards do their job, then they will give Pienaar the service at the base to allow the backs to do their job too.

It will be a tough task for Ulster. Glasgow know that they could cause a massive upset with a win, but realistically they have nothing to play for. If the home side can gain control early on then the match should be theirs for the taking, and a bonus point may even be on offer. With the added incentives of the quarter-finals beckoning, and the talent they have, it is a real possibility. As I said for the Castres match back in October – it’s the Heineken Cup. Why not? Prediction – Ulster by 19 (BP)

Teams

Ulster have made five changes to the side that beat the Scarlets last weekend. Dan Tuohy and Luke Marshall both drop out due to injury and are replaced by Iain Henderson and Paddy Wallace respectively. Rory Best returns to the starting line-up along with John Afoa and Jared Payne who both return from injury.

Glasgow go one further and make six changes to their side that beat Treviso last Friday, the most notable change being Duncan Weir replacing Ruaridh Jackson at out-half. Peter Murchie and Sean Maitland replace Sean Hogg and Tommy Seymour in the back three, while James Eddie replaces the injured Ryan Wilson in the back row. Tom Ryder returns to the starting line-up at lock and Peter Horne takes up the 12 shirt again.

At Ravenhill, 8pm

Heineken Cup round 5
Live on Sky Sports 2 and Sky Sports 2HD

ULSTER

15. Jared Payne, 14. Andrew Trimble, 13. Darren Cave, 12. Paddy Wallace, 11. Craig Gilroy, 10. Paddy Jackson, 9. Ruan Pienaar; 1. Tom Court, 2. Rory Best, 3. John Afoa, 4. Lewis Stevenson, 5. Iain Henderson, 6. Robbie Diack, 7. Chris Henry (c), 8. Nick Williams.

16. Rob Herring, 17. Callum Black, 18. Declan Fitzpatrick, 19. Neil McComb, 20. Roger Wilson, 21. Paul Marshall, 22. Mike Allen, 23. Chris Cochrane.

GLASGOW WARRIORS

15. Peter Murchie, 14. Sean Maitland, 13. Alex Dunbar, 12. Peter Horne, 11. DTH van der Merwe, 10. Duncan Weir, 9. Henry Pyrgos; 1. Ryan Grant, 2. Doug Hall, 3. Moray Low, 4. Tom Ryder, 5. Al Kellock (c), 6. James Eddie, 7. Rob Harley, 8. Josh Strauss.

16. Pat MacArthur, 17. Gordon Reid, 18. N/A, 19. Nick Campbell, 20. Tim Swinson, 21. Niko Matawalu, 22. Scott Wight, 23. Stuart Hogg.

Referee: Pascal Gauzere (Fra)

Assistant Referees: Laurent Cardona, Stéphane Pomarède (both Fra)
Citing Commissioner: Peter Larter (Eng)
TMO: Hervé Dubes (Fra)

On the other hand…

…there are some other big games in Europe this weekend, all of which will contribute to the overall picture of Heineken Cup qualification:

P4: Northampton Saints v Castres Olympique – Home win

P6: Sale Sharks v Montpellier – Away win
P3: Harlequins v Connacht Rugby – Home win
P3: Zebre v Biarritz Olympique Pays Basque – Away win
P6: Toulon v Cardiff Blues – Home win (BP)
P1: Racing Metro 92 v Saracens – Away win
P5: Leinster Rugby v Scarlets – Home win
P5: ASM Clermont Auvergne v Exeter Chiefs – Home win (BP)
P1: Edinburgh Rugby v Munster Rugby – Away win
P2: Ospreys v Leicester Tigers – Home win
P2: Toulouse v Benetton Treviso – Home win (BP)

BACK TO WINNING WAYS

2013 couldn’t have got off to a better start for Ulster – a ruthless bonus point victory over the second-placed Scarlets will have sent out a message to the rest of the Pro12. Come and get us.

In what was one of Ulster’s most satisfying victories of the season, it was literally a tale of two halves – the first was a dull, boring affair while the second was a complete try-fest, with seven being notched up between the two teams.

It’s now an eleven point lead in the league for the Ulstermen…

Try, try, try and try again

There is no doubt that Ulster will come away from this game full of confidence ahead of their crucial Heineken Cup games this month against Glasgow and Castres. The way they put their Welsh opponents to the sword will strike fear into anybody they face and they themselves won’t fear anybody else.

Ulster’s number 8 will also cause the opposition to fear. At one point during the match Nick Williams broke clear of the Scarlets’ defence and sprinted towards their full-back Dan Newton. From that moment I was worried for that man’s life, it was like a train hurtling towards a car.

Luckily Newton did make the tackle (although he did have to go off injured afterwards!), but you can see just what a destructive impact the Kiwi has. His try was testament to just how strong he is, holding off four red shirts to barrel his way over for Ulster’s second try. He is playing some of the best rugby of his life and Ulster are reaping the rewards from it.

But a lot of his success has to go down to the work of the Ulster physio team. When he was at Aironi he missed a lot of games due to injury and therefore his ability was limited. But here at Ulster, with what has been described as “one of the best medical teams in Europe” he has been able to excel, and has shown himself to be a top class back rower.

It was from the set piece once again where Ulster got the platform for their win. Rob Herring was key to the success both in the line-out and the scrum. His line-out throws were straight and accurate (bar one) and he was part of the front row that took apart the opposition scrum.

In the back line, Andrew Trimble showed what a mistake Declan Kidney had made in dropping him for the Autumn Internationals – as did Tom Court in the front row. Both put in superb performances to try and prove to the Ireland coach that they have plenty more to offer in a green shirt.

While it was a good performance by Ulster, coach Mark Anscombe was quick to point out the downsides – their slow start to the game and the two soft tries they conceded.

It took about thirty minutes for Ulster to really spark into life, and worryingly, this is becoming a habit for Ulster. In games like the Edinburgh home match and the Northampton home match too, Ulster have taken a long time to get on the scoreboard and begin to threaten. Northampton already punished them for this, and other strong teams will too.

The two tries were simply down to poor defence really. A slipped tackle from Robbie Diack allowed Josh Turnbull in for the Scarlets’ first try, and two missed tackles from Paddy Wallace and Andrew Trimble allowed the Welshmen to secure a second try. Again, not a problem in the game on Friday, but it could be costly later in the season.

Nevertheless, it is another victory in the race for the Pro12 play-offs and it now leaves Ulster in an extremely commanding position – eleven points clear of second place. Many say that they have first place wrapped up already, but there are still some big matches to come, and Ulster will have to be at their best to finish top of the tree in May.

This victory came at a cost though. During the match Adam D’Arcy, Dan Tuohy, Luke Marshall and Nick Williams all picked up injuries and are all now doubts for Friday’s game against Glasgow along with Jared Payne and Rory Best. Friday’s game could end up being the real test of Ulster’s strength in depth.

Heineken Cup rugby is back…

Munster get the Blues

At the start of the weekend, who would’ve thought Cardiff would leave Musgrave Park with the win, huh? In the shock of the weekend, two tries from Owen Williams and Robin Copeland won the match for the Welsh side and leaves Munster outside the play-off places down in sixth – in a bit of trouble.

A considerable mention also has to go to Zebre who ran the Ospreys mighty close at the Liberty Stadium before eventually losing 16-15. If they keep up this form then they will eventually get their long overdue first victory.

The race for the Pro12 play-offs is now hotting up, with only four points separating second and sixth. With only nine games left, wins and bonus points are becoming crucial for those sides hoping to be in the knock-outs in May…

ULSTER v SCARLETS TEAMS

At Ravenhill
RaboDirect PRO12 - Round 13
Friday 4th January 2013, 19:05

ULSTER
15. Adam D'Arcy, 14. Andrew Trimble, 13. Darren Cave, 12. Luke Marshall, 11. Craig Gilroy, 10. Paddy Jackson, 9. Ruan Pienaar; 1. Tom Court, 2. Rob Herring, 3. Adam Macklin, 4. Lewis Stevenson, 5. Dan Tuohy, 6. Robbie Diack, 7. Chris Henry (capt.), 8. Nick Williams.

16. Niall Annett, 17. Callum Black, 18. John Afoa, 19. Neil McComb, 20. Roger Wilson, 21. Michael Heaney, 22. Paddy Wallace, 23. Ricky Andrew.

SCARLETS
15. Dan Newton, 14. George North, 13. Gareth Maule, 12. Jonathan Davies (capt.), 11. Kristian Phillips, 10. Aled Thomas, 9. Tavis Knoyle; 1. Phil John, 2. Emyr Phillips, 3. Jacobie Adriaanse, 4. Sione Timani, 5. Richard Kelly, 6. Josh Turnbull, 7. Johnathan Edwards, 8. Rob McCusker.

16. Kirby Myhill, 17. Rhodri Jones, 18. Deacon Manu, 19. Tomas Vallejos, 20. Craig Price, 21. Gareth Davies, 22. Scott Williams, 23. Adam Warren.

Referee: Leighton Hodges (WRU, 24th competition game)
Assistant Referees: Sean Gallagher, Brian MacNiece (both IRFU)
Citing Commissioner: Gordon Black (IRFU)
TMO: Marshall Kilgore (IRFU)

LEARNING CURVE

Despite the result, I left Thomond Park in high spirits on Saturday night. You may be wondering “Why?” since I had to endure a four hour journey back up to Belfast and we had also lost. And I will admit, yes, I was disappointed with the result. But not too upset.

The performance that Ulster’s young stars put in was highly commendable, especially in the bear pit that is Thomond Park. Despite conceding three tries in the space of fifteen minutes (split over half-time) they held out for the final thirty minutes and scored a try of their own to soften the blow.

Yeah, I’m not too disappointed.

Beaten by the better team

I’m not going to try and make excuses – the better team won by the right scoreline. Munster did enough to secure the victory, but Ulster defended well enough to deny them the fourth try. But I suppose this was to be the inevitable case, considering Ulster fielded only a small number of their first team, while Munster were nearly at full strength.

In the end it was one of Munster’s first team subs who probably cost them the fourth try, and it was probably the most well known of those subs too – Ronan O’Gara. In my opinion, Ian Keatley was doing fine at 10, and when O’Gara came on, he looked to kick possession away far too often and this is what cost them the full five points.

That’s not to take anything away from Ulster though. Taking away the ten minutes after half-time, they put their bodies on the line time and time again, stopping their opponents from crossing the line for the fourth time. It wasn’t up to the standard of the Heineken Cup quarter-final from April, but there were a lot of tackles being made.

The stand out player was, undoubtedly, Luke Marshall. It’s incredible to think that this guy is still only 22 years old, yet the power and skill he brings to the side is similar to a seasoned veteran. This is great news for Ulster who, in Marshall and Paddy Wallace, now have two fantastic 12s competing for the shirt.

It’s also great to see what talent Ulster have in reserve as well. Before the game I made it very clear to those around me that I was worried about the strength of their bench compared to ours. But in actual fact, it was our bench that made the bigger impact. Niall Annett’s line-out throws were fast and accurate, Ali Birch made his presence known around the pitch, while Michael Heaney and Stuart Olding both outshone the players they replaced, with the latter looking extremely impressive.

Unfortunately it was the players that started that made the subs’ jobs that bit harder. After Paul Marshall’s yellow card, Ulster conceded two tries to add to the one they had conceded before half-time to leave them trailing 24-3 after just 50 minutes. But the raft of changes that Anscombe made did the job required and held out.

That’s not to say that the starting fifteen all did poorly. The aforementioned Luke Marshall was excellent as per usual, Adam Macklin was impressive in his first start this season, both around the pitch and in the scrum, while Marshall’s partner at centre, Mike Allen also had a good game both offensively and defensively.

The simple truth is that they made too many errors. In the early moments of the first half, Ulster had quite a few chances to get in the lead, but they blew them. If Niall O’Connor had have got his first penalty and put Ulster in the lead, who knows what might’ve happened?

The game’s in the past, however. What’s done has been done, and Ulster can hold their heads high. Before the game there were cries that Ulster were deliberately throwing the match, but it is obvious that that was not the case. The team proved that they are all full of talent and they can mix it with the big boys in the league. And that is exactly what Ulster need. Two teams that can do the job in the league when needed.

If anything has been proven by this season, it’s that Ulster have plenty of good players, both in their first team and in reserve. They are certainly well on their way to being the top side in Europe.

Ulster return to Ravenhill this Friday to play second-placed Scarlets in the Pro12, hoping to return to winning ways once more. The team should be back to full strength ahead of the two crucial Heineken Cup games and it should be the perfect way to start 2013. Here’s to a great year full of success for the Ulstermen!!!