SUPER SATURDAY

Super Saturday really did live up to its billing.

On a day where anything seemed possible, there was mayhem which began with Wales’ seven try second half blitz and ended with Yoann Huget’s mad decision to tap-and-go on his own line with the clock in the red at Twickenham. It was a fitting end to an exhilarating day of rugby that had us on the edge of our seats all day and reaching for the calculators with every try that crossed the whitewash. Just as the final round of the Six Nations should be.

For everybody campaigning for the final round of matches to all be played at the same time, this was the perfect way of the Six Nations biting back and saying no thanks. I don’t think it’s inaccurate to say that the exciting and points-filled play we saw from Wales, Ireland and England (and, I guess, France) wouldn’t have happened if each side were playing at the same time and knew exactly what they needed to do.

Ireland were the worthy winners, even if it looked like they mightn’t be. When the final whistle went at Murrayfield you thought that Ireland hadn’t done enough to put themselves far enough ahead of England to keep themselves atop the standings, and considering the inconsistency France had shown in the previous four rounds it looked very likely that 26 points wasn’t going to be nearly enough.

Jonathan Sexton and Ian Madigan are probably the most relieved Irishmen alive.

Their missed kicks nearly cost Ireland the trophy altogether – normally I would sympathise with them considering the pressure they were under, but whenever you look at how young George Ford ignored the eyes of the world on his back and slotted kick after kick at Twickenham, it begs the question of how possibly the greatest fly-half currently on the planet and then one of the most reliable kickers in the Pro12 managed to squander four kicks at goal that would have put daylight between Ireland and England.

In the end, ironically Ireland were saved by England. Well, rather England’s inability to defend. Maybe it was complacency, or maybe Stuart Lancaster sent out his side with the ethos simply to score more than they conceded. Whatever the reason, England managed to ship 35 points against a team that was mediocre at best and as such they positively gifted Ireland the title.

We could go into plenty of ifs and buts regarding Saturday. What if England had scored at the end? What if Stuart Hogg had managed to touch down for a Scottish try late on in Edinburgh? What if Wales had hit form in the first half as well as the second? Luckily for Ireland we aren’t dealing in ifs, but it does highlight what little had to change over the course of the three games for the title to slip from their grasp.

Nevertheless, the win sends out a real message to the southern hemisphere giants – Ireland are not to be messed with. The Six Nations is a revered tournament worldwide and successfully defending it is something that raise plenty of eyebrows in South Africa, New Zealand and Australia, and ahead of the World Cup that puts a big target on Ireland’s head. With a relatively straightforward pool for Ireland to negotiate as well it means Joe Schmidt’s side will be one of the teams to beat come the knock-out stages.

England and Wales won’t be too far behind either, although there is the possibility that one of them will be knocked out at the pool stage – they will be fighting out with Australia in the “Pool of Death” for two quarter-final spots. And the fact that they both ran Ireland so closely over the course of the competition will also get the attention of the southern hemisphere teams, Australia especially.

Will Joe Schmidt mind that his team missed out on the Grand Slam? Probably a bit considering the position they were in going into the final two games, however the relief he will have felt after the final whistle at Twickenham on Saturday will have banished any sort of disappointment he felt from Cardiff a week before. The Grand Slam is a fantastic bonus if you can manage it, but what Schmidt will be happier with is the fact that Ireland are once again European champions and the team to beat from the north.

In a World Cup year, there’s not much more you can ask for.

And a massive congratulations to Ireland’s Women as well for making it a double and winning the Women’s Six Nations with a crushing defeat of Scotland Women sealing the deal!

SHOWCASE SHOWDOWN

And so it all boils down to one long afternoon.

In some ways it’s good that the Six Nations all hinges on each game of the final weekend – it means there is plenty of exciting rugby for fans to enjoy, permutations to work out as the games unfold and several hours of nail-biting excitement. It sums up exactly what the Six Nations is about really: six teams battling it out over five gruelling weeks to be named European champions and to have it all resting on the three Round Five games is incredibly exciting.

Flip that around, and it is far from ideal from Ireland. Not only did their Grand Slam ambitions evaporate at the Millennium Stadium on Saturday, their chances of winning the Six Nations probably evaporated too. With Wales likely to put something closely resembling a cricket score on Italy first up and England strong favourites to dispose of the French to close out the 2015 contest, it puts a huge amount of pressure on Ireland to run in plenty of points at Murrayfield in between.

And let’s not forget that the French, amidst all of their selection and consistency issues, are still in with a chance of stealing the competition outright should results go their way, even as unlikely as that sounds (they require Italy and Scotland to both win before them). It leaves a thrilling conclusion to the 2015 RBS Six Nations lying tantalisingly in the balance.

You would have to say England hold the advantage. While Wales may face the weakest side, England have the most important thing in their favour: playing last. Even though Wales will probably put a big score on Italy, they simply have to keep scoring in the hope that the amount they win by will be enough to push their points difference high enough to see off their rivals. On the other hand, England will go into Le Crunch knowing exactly how much they need to win by to secure the trophy.

Unfair? You bet.

Spare a thought for poor Ireland sandwiched in the middle. Even if they do manage to surpass the total set by Wales, they still face an unknown in that they have no idea how much further they need to go to also hold England at bay. Indeed, Ireland’s game against Scotland isn’t even a given win – the Scottish have plenty of motivation to cause a massive shock and avoid picking up the Wooden Spoon.

It will be intriguing to see how all three coaches approach their various contests as well. Stuart Lancaster has the luxury of seeing how the other results pan out before ultimately deciding on how to deal with Philippe Saint-Andre’s side – a luxury that Warren Gatland and Joe Schmidt do not share. You’d be surprised if Gatland didn’t instruct his side to go all out for tries against a side that were nilled on their own turf a week ago, while Schmidt’s philosophy is anybody’s guess. One can’t help but feel the Kiwi coach will be slightly more pragmatic than his Welsh counterpart.

Does who deserves to win play any part at this point? I don’t really think so because there hasn’t been anybody who has set this tournament alight. Ireland, despite their Grand Slam aspirations, never really got out of second gear and needed to do the basics right to breeze past Italy, France and England. When finally faced with a stern test in Cardiff they buckled, with even the reliable Jonny Sexton being off his game. If they do lose this Championship, the Millennium Stadium is where it happened.

And how about Wales? Well they did show fantastic character to go to the Stade de France and come away with the two points, however their disappointing opening day show against the English is going to come back to haunt them, and that juvenile tunnel spat before that game marred what could have been a fascinating spectacle. Still, they got the business done against Ireland and that was no mean feat.

England have probably been the most consistent of the three main contenders, however that consistency deserted them when they visited the Aviva in Round Three. That game alone should be justification for them not winning the Championship, yet here they are in possibly the best position of them all. Their back line has been glorious to watch and has shown lethal precision, but like Ireland, in the big game they fell apart. Will they do so again on Saturday?

So my prediction? First up, Wales will coast to victory over Italy with ease, only to be surpassed by Ireland who will beat Scotland by just enough points to push themselves into top spot before the French put up a brave fight initially at Twickenham, only to concede a couple of tries (likely from either Anthony Watson or Jonathan Joseph) and fall apart as French teams to do. England get enough points to win the championship.

Whether that prediction comes true or not, what I do know is that from start to finish on Saturday we have a lot of running rugby to look forward to, coupled with a lot of nerves, sweating and typing on calculators! Can the Welsh banish their opening game woes to win? Will the English chariot be swinging low all the way to the trophy? Could France shock the rugby world and steal the most unlikely of victories? Or will Ireland defend their title despite their slip up in Cardiff?

Sit back and thoroughly enjoy, everyone!

CRISIS AT THE KINGSPAN

The writing really was on the wall wasn’t it?

For three weeks we watched as Ulster spluttered past average opponent after average opponent, and finally on Sunday we were made to pay for our poor play as the Dragons swept past us with what looked to be relative ease – and based on how we performed on the day, it was fully deserved. It was so poor that I couldn’t even stand to watch Stephen Watson and the BBC analysts try to explain the reasons for Ulster’s defeat.

They didn’t have to. Ulster were simply not anywhere near good enough.

The first thing that struck me came in the second half after Jonathan Evans had ghosted through for the Dragons’ second try – it was that the urgency that seemed non-existent in the first half suddenly sparked into life. For the first 60 minutes we looked like (and probably thought we were) a side who just had to show up and the four points was ours. We were lacklustre, wasteful, and more than likely complacent.

It took us to concede two tries and fall outside of bonus point range in order for us to finally start attacking the Dragons at pace, and at this level that lack of urgency is unacceptable. We should have been punished against Edinburgh, yet we were saved by their inability to realise how to score with two extra men on the field. Against the Scarlets only Craig Gilroy’s brilliance saved our blushes – had he not scored that there is a distinct possibility that we wouldn’t have had the momentum to kick on and win. This week lady luck did not smile upon us.

One bad game does not make a bad team, not at all. For Ulster however, this is number four in as many weeks. Although we’ve been winning, the performances have been sub-par and we’ve been extremely fortunate not to be found out in the results, and it is nothing short of a miracle that we’ve been playing so poorly yet still inhabit second place in the Pro12 – something that is maybe more of a reflection on the league than us.

It’s very easy to overlook weaknesses when you’re getting victories, and for several years I think we’ve done that. Now that we’ve finally fallen from grace, things suddenly look a lot bleaker and a harsh inspection of our resources is being done. But certainly the fans are not happy bunnies, and there will have to be a lot done to win them back around, because even though hypothetically a trophy this season is still, believe it or not, a realistic possibility, it does not look that way.

Is an overhaul needed?

There is certainly a case of ditching several players for being below the standard we expect them to be. Tactically Ulster seem to be lacking too. And as far as commitment goes, we saw it in abundance in those last five minutes against Edinburgh – not too much since. Yet we were still winning which is the most puzzling thing. Even though we mightn’t have faced the sternest of opponents, to come away from Murrayfield with all four points was a good result and putting away the Scarlets was no mean feat either.

Changes, however, must be made. On this form we do not stand any sort of a chance against Leinster and Munster next month, and on our current form I would expect Connacht to be fancying our scalp in Galway too. It would do us no harm to get Paddy Jackson back on the field as soon as possible, and the sooner Chris Henry can be reintroduced to competitive rugby the better – we have desperately missed him at openside flanker.

Sadly all that can be said is that Sunday was the culmination of four weeks of disappointment and the day our luck packed its bags and ran for the hills. And in my opinion, it’s a good thing we lost otherwise we would have gone another three weeks believing that we were still “producing the stuff of champions” which is one of those ridiculous statements that is always brought up when we’re not playing great but winning.

We now see our team for what it is – lacking in many areas. Les Kiss, working with Neil Doak and Joe Barakat, has the potential to improve us immensely when he arrives in Belfast and takes the reins as Director of Rugby, but for now we need to seek short-term solutions for our problems in order for us to have a feasible dream of turning over Leinster, Munster and Glasgow and reaching the Pro12 semi-finals.

Where those solutions are coming from is anybody’s guess…

THE FULL EIGHTY

The longer this season goes on, the luckier Ulster seem to get.

Maybe the luck we got in Murrayfield was greater than what we got against the Scarlets on Friday night, but nevertheless, it was another abject performance from the Ulstermen. Had Craig Gilroy not run in his wonderful solo try just after half-time then it’s questionable whether Ulster would have had the conviction to go on and win. Yet it’s a remarkable contrast in fortunes that we left Belfast wondering just how we’d spurned a try bonus point such was our start to the second half.

It typifies Ulster’s season – a smattering of good periods during games that just about amounts to victories here and there.

If you look at our season as a whole, you could argue that Ulster have put in two 80 minute performances so far this season, both at home, to Glasgow and Leicester. Based on that, you would think we’d be languishing in mid-table and destined for a season outside the top four. Yet instead we sit in third place, one point off first and with probably the easiest run in of our rivals towards the business end of the season.

However, there are very few reasons to be cheerful heading to Rodney Parade on Sunday. The form of human bulldozer Nick Williams is one of those reasons, with the Kiwi number eight finally getting back to what he does best, and alongside the ever-reliable Roger Wilson there is a real stability returning to our 6/8 combo. Sadly, with Chris Henry and now Tim Boys both sidelined, the same cannot be said for our openside.

Too many times have Ulster fallen asleep during games, or simply gone slack for prolonged periods this season. You think back to the first half at the Parc y Scarlets back in December when we were 12-0 down before we could even blink. Or away to Munster a few weeks before that when we started superbly and then were blown away for the rest of the game. It’s periods of games like those that really hurt us.

Friday was no different. Having not done much wrong for the first half (although not much right either in all honesty), we went in at the half losing 13-6 due to an act of carelessness from Ian Humphreys, throwing an offload that was never on and putting us on the back foot – and as I said earlier, had Craig Gilroy not sparked us into life just after the restart then who knows what the result would have been.

This isn’t something I know how to solve, so I’m not offering any advice. However, it is clear that until Ulster start putting in some 80 minute performances then at some point they will be caught out, with our trip to Rodney Parade this Sunday a real banana skin as far as away days are concerned. The Dragons are typically a difficult opposition to defeat in Newport, and based on our away form so far this season you wouldn’t put it past the underdogs triumphing, even with their loss to Zebre last week.

Still, Ulster are due a decent outing, and if results go our way over the weekend we could head into the second Six Nations break top of the tree once more – although that’s unlikely due to Glasgow being at home to Zebre, though you never know. Still, this is a great chance to continue our momentum of good results (albeit with poor performances) and take away the win from traditionally one of the trickiest venues in the Pro12.

Actually, looking ahead, things don’t seem too bad. With three more home games still to come, two of which are against Leinster and Munster, there is a chance not only to propel ourselves up the standings but push a few of our play-off rivals down a bit too. And by the time the likes of Rory Best, Jared Payne and Tommy Bowe are released back to us we should be in a good frame of mind to travel west to Galway and get a result against Connacht as well.

So even though we’re still looking for that satisfying performance that leaves us grinning from ear to ear after departing the Kingspan Stadium, things are still looking up for Neil Doak and Ulster. Should we traverse Sunday’s test then we will be perfectly placed to push on and gain one of the top two spots in the league and bring a semi-final back to the Kingspan Stadium.

And once it gets to knock-out matches, the performances no longer matter. Just the results.