IS EVERYTHING SKY HIGH?

I found myself at something of a loss of words as I watched Sky Sports’ Rugby Club on Friday night before the Munster v Edinburgh game on TG4 (which was a cracker by the way).

As this is Sky’s maiden season of Pro12 coverage, something which was made abundantly clear over the course of the weekend, I can grant them a little bit of leeway regarding their naivety toward the Pro12, but I gaped with incredulity as the various pundits revealed their predictions for how the season would pan out. Take nothing away from their coverage which was professional and of top quality standard throughout, but these predictions were wild to say the least.

The sheer ineptitude of the pundits who they asked to provide their top four was astounding, especially since they are supposedly experts in their field. The vast majority of them had the Cardiff Blues in their top four based purely on their summer signings, while Will Greenwood went as far as to say that the Newport-Gwent Dragons would finish in fourth due to the lack of players that would head away during international breaks, as if the other sides would not be able to cope with a few missing front line players.

I mean no disrespect whatsoever to the Blues or the Dragons, the former of whom could very easily compete for silverware this season, particularly based on their dismissal of a stubborn Zebre side at the weekend, but I think the majority of Pro12 fans would share my scepticism at these bold and wild predictions. Instead we had to look to Pro12 punditry “regulars” in Scott Hastings, Shane Horgan and Alan Quinlan, who all predicted the same top four as last season – a more likely punt than a Welsh region breaking into the play-offs.

In my opinion this shows a complete disregard of respect for the Pro12 as a league that the experts covering it are making these wild stabs at the top four. Indeed, only Glasgow and Leinster featured in every prediction, and I’m willing to bet that that is purely down to the fact they contested last season’s final, while Munster made many appearances also, although we all know how much the pundits love them, regardless of how they do.

Instead you have to look no further than the Parc y Scarlets on Saturday to see two sides who will be there or thereabouts when it comes to May next year. Two sides locked horns with a bullish attitude and both came away with three points from a frenetic, fast-paced, furious battle that left everybody stunned as to just how Ulster managed to snatch a draw from the jaws of defeat. The phrase “backs up against the wall” doesn’t even do it justice – Ulster had been bruised and battered for the first thirty minutes of the second half and yet, remarkably, they managed to find the will and belief to leave Llanelli with three very valuable points to their name.

If Sky’s executives had to make do with the Pro12 following BT Sport’s swoop for the Aviva Premiership, they will have been licking their lips following the high scoring draw to begin their coverage and then the exciting end to Glasgow v Leinster straight afterwards. As far as the two games they could have chosen to launch their Pro12 showcase went, they couldn’t possibly have chosen two better games.

I won’t go into the details of Ulster’s draw this week, although I will make a quick note on the shortcomings of the officials, and for both teams may I add. Liam Williams can count himself extremely unlucky to have picked up his third red card in his last five games considering, while he did knock the ball on, it hardly looked like he did it deliberately, while Louis Ludik may well be cursing his luck following yesterday’s video review when he sees what his try was disallowed for. Any contact Michael Allen did make with a covering defender was minimal at best.

The standard of officiating in the Pro12 has declined rapidly and, while we can still boast probably the world’s best referee in Nigel Owens, the quality below that is not even close to the high bar he has set, and we saw that again on Saturday. Indeed, had the officials checked with the TMO for that final knock on that ended the game (as they did for every other close decision) Ulster may well have had a penalty to win the match and take all five points. That is if Peter Fitzgibbon had indeed left the TMO to make his own decision instead of putting it upon himself.

Whatever you thought of Sky’s coverage, which I thought was perfect for the game itself but poor in the build up, there is no doubt that the exposure that the broadcaster will bring to the league will be crucial in guaranteeing more sponsors and increasing the revenue being brought into the league. And if the two opening matches are anything to go by then we are in for some incredible rugby over the course of the 2014-15 season.

Everyone loves to put on a show for the cameras, don’t they?

GUINNESS PRO12 PREVIEW

BENETTON TREVISO

Head Coach: Umberto Casellato

Stadium: Stadio di Monigo, Treviso
Captain: Antonio Pavanello
Star Man: Michele Campagnaro

Treviso really haven’t lived up to the hype that they created around themselves a couple of years ago when they really threatened the top four of the Pro12. Last year they fell to a dismal 11^th place, only just holding off the challenge of minnows Zebre while losing head coach Franco Smith too. Now they enter 2014/15 having lost a sizable amount of their front line stars to big European teams knowing that they have a massive task to simply stay ahead of their Italian rivals. Can they remind the rugby community that Italian sides can compete at the highest level? Common sense and the amount of players they’ve lost would dictate not, but a word of warning: never write off the Leoni and the awkward away trip that the Stadio di Monigo poses.

CARDIFF BLUES

Head Coach: Mark Hammett

Stadium: BT Sport Cardiff Arms Park, Cardiff
Captain: Matthew Rees
Star Man: Alex Cuthbert

Of all the teams in the Pro12, the word “disappointment” springs to mind when you think of the Cardiff Blues. No offence to any fans of the Blues that read this but even they will agree that ever since they reached the Heineken Cup semi-final in 2009, their form both domestically and in Europe hasn’t been good enough. Not that they haven’t tried though, the Blues can cause a lot of problems when in full stride, but when you think of the stars they’ve had at their disposal over the past few seasons their exploits should’ve been much greater. Stealing Adam Jones from the Ospreys and bringing in Mark Hammett as Director of Rugby will help their plight dramatically, but not enough for them to mount a serious challenge to the top sides.

CONNACHT RUGBY

Head Coach: Pat Lam

Stadium: Galway Sportsground, Galway
Captain: John Muldoon
Star Man: Mils Muliaina

Pat Lam was brought in to Galway to try and convince the IRFU that Connacht are not just the fourth province in Ireland anymore and that they deserve equal standing. Based on how his debut season went, he has a lot to improve upon this campaign. He’s used his contacts well and managed to convince ex-All Blacks star Mils Muliaina that the Sportsground is where he should spend his twilight years, but losing the experience of Dan Parks at fly-half is a worry for an inexperienced squad that will rely heavily on their stars in Kieran Marmion and Robbie Henshaw. A low finish is likely to be repeated this season, although don’t rule out a shock result or two at the Sportsground on a wet and windy Friday night.

EDINBURGH RUGBY

Head Coach: Alan Solomons

Stadium: BT Murrayfield, Edinburgh
Captain: TBD
Star Man: Tim Visser

Edinburgh are one of the hardest sides in the Pro12 to work out, and I’ll be honest, writing this preview is the trickiest of the twelve. Probably the best side of the bottom six teams in the Pro12, this year is the first where the formerly named Gunners will sense that they have a realistic chance to break into the top six, especially since they have managed to hold onto all of their front line players while strengthening their squad over the summer too. If they can make Murrayfield into a true fortress, their pack can do a lot of damage, while the ever present threat of Tim Visser is enough to strike fear into any defender.

GLASGOW WARRIORS

Head Coach: Gregor Townsend

Stadium: Scotstoun Stadium, Glasgow
Captain: Alastair Kellock
Star Man: Sean Maitland

Surprisingly, I reckon if you ask many Glasgow fans what they think of last season then they’d be disappointed. And I would share that disappointment – the Warriors were the most consistent team in the league by a long way and toward the end of the season some of the rugby they played was simply irresistible, they simply fell at the final hurdle due to a lack of experience at the highest level. This year they have learned vital lessons, managed to strengthen an already star-studded squad and are hungry for revenge. And based on those things, plus a fully fit and unpredictable Niko Matawalu thrown into the mix, this could really be their year.

LEINSTER RUGBY

Head Coach: Matt O’Connor

Stadium: RDS Arena, Dublin
Captain: Jamie Heaslip
Star Man: Sean O’Brien

Defending champions, most successful side in the competition, anybody else want to throw a few more superlatives at Leinster? Even when they had lost Joe Schmidt, Jonny Sexton and Isa Nacewa ahead of last season they still managed to dig deep and find the victory yet again, and it is that winning mentality that still makes them the best side in the Pro12. That title is going to be strongly disputed this season and having lost Brian O’Driscoll they will be severely wanting in the centre department. Nevertheless, you’ll find very few teams will triumph over the Boys in Blue this year and it will take a massive effort from any team to overcome the Dubliners’ destructive front five.

MUNSTER RUGBY

Head Coach: Anthony Foley

Stadium: Thomond Park, Limerick/Musgrave Park, Cork
Captain: Peter O’Mahony
Star Man: Simon Zebo

Last season we saw real glimpses of the Munster of old, yet even the die-hard Munster fans will admit that they are nowhere near the level that they used to be. Over the summer head coach Rob Penney was ousted and replacing him is fans’ favourite Anthony “Axel” Foley who will attempt to instil that former mentality at Thomond Park, but that is easier said than done. While Munster now have a younger group of players coming through who are showing real promise, they are still a few years away from the real deal and unless Foley can really invigorate their rather limp back line then it will be another trophyless season in the south of Ireland.

NEWPORT-GWENT DRAGONS

Head Coach: Lyn Jones

Stadium: Rodney Parade, Newport
Captain: Lee Byrne
Star Man: Taulupe Faletau

Keeping hold of Taulupe Faletau was integral to the success of the Dragons, and not only did Lyn Jones manage to do that, but he went one step further and also convinced winger Aled Brew and full-back Lee Byrne that Rodney Parade was the place for them to come to this season – two fantastic acquisitions. Although their returns won’t necessarily mean a play-off place is in the offing for the region, expect them to be a lot more competitive this season and pull away from the two Italians at the bottom of the table. That is, if their trio of stars can stay injury free…

OSPREYS

Head Coach: Steve Tandy

Stadium: Liberty Stadium, Swansea
Captain: Alun Wyn Jones
Star Man: Justin Tipuric

No point in sugar coating it, 2013/14 was nothing short of a failure for the Ospreys. No play-off match for them in the Pro12 and an early exit from Europe reflected a fall from grace for the Swansea-based region and this season is fully motivated by a need for a return to the top table of Celtic rugby. Dan Biggar will provide the reliability required from behind the pack while Alun Wyn Jones will act as the figurehead in the scrum. Richard Hibbard’s departure will severely weaken their scrum however and unless a few younger players step up, it may be another difficult year for them.

SCARLETS

Head Coach: Wayne Pivac

Stadium: Parc y Scarlets, Llanelli
Captain: Ken Owens
Star Man: Rhys Priestland

The Scarlets have always been up and around the play-off places yet they very rarely make them. This season they’ve made positive steps in trying to make sure they are no longer ‘possibles’ and instead are ‘probables’ by bringing in Wayne Pivac as head coach, while securing the return of Regan King from Clermont and the capture of Michael Tagicakibau on the wing. The loss of Jonathan Davies is a worrying point for the Scarlets and unless their scrum can make more of an impact in the big games then they will continue to be on the outside looking in.

ULSTER RUGBY

Head Coach: Les Kiss

Stadium: Kingspan Stadium, Belfast
Captain: Rory Best
Star Man: Ruan Pienaar

The nearly men of rugby in the past few years, last season was a particularly difficult one for the Ulstermen and it culminated in head coach Mark Anscombe losing his job over the course of a very turbulent summer in Belfast. Also departing are Director of Rugby David Humphreys, Johann Muller, Stephen Ferris and John Afoa leaving a sizable gap in the Ulster squad. However, with Ireland assistant coach Les Kiss stepping in as head coach on an interim basis and the signings of Franco van der Merwe and Wiehahn Herbst, things may not be so bad. However, with so many changes, this may simply be a transitional year for the White Knights.

ZEBRE

Head Coach: Andrea Cavinato

Stadium: Stadio XXV Aprille, Parma
Captain: Gonzalo Garcia
Star Man: Mauro Bergamasco

Zebre are the side everyone wants to do well – except when they’re playing against their side! Since they took over from Aironi a couple of seasons ago, Zebre have slowly improved, notching up several victories and giving several teams a run for their money in some tight matches. However, it has been a rather quiet off-season in Parma and without any significant investment into the team, this season looks doomed to be just as unsuccessful as the previous few. A basement battle with Treviso looks the most likely outcome yet again for Zebre, yet if they can find their feet early on then maybe more could be on the cards…

Adam’s prediction:

1.       Glasgow Warriors

2.       Leinster Rugby

3.       Ulster Rugby

4.       Munster Rugby

5.       Ospreys

6.       Scarlets

7.       Edinburgh Rugby

8.       Cardiff Blues

9.       Newport-Gwent Dragons

10.   Connacht Rugby

11.   Benetton Treviso

12.   Zebre

WINDS OF CHANGE

Forget Orange Is the New Black (currently showing on Netflix), at the Kingspan Stadium it’s definitely a case of purple is the new black!

As Kukri head Terry Jackson said at the launch, it is indeed “something new” for the fans and it will no doubt bring in some much appreciated revenue to Ulster Rugby, but really it’s not a flattering look in my opinion. Give me a traditional black or red alternate shirt to the purple monstrosity that was paraded on Friday night any day.

Change is something that we must get used to at Ulster this season, from the renaming of the stadium all the way up to a brand new coaching set up at the province, as well as the usual comings and goings on the field too, be that through new signings or upcoming young stars who got their chance to shine against Exeter (shout out to Jacob Stockdale making his debut on the wing!).

Every season we deal with a certain amount of change, as does every team, but this season there will be a lot to get used to, and patience will indeed be a virtue in Belfast. Mark Anscombe and David Humphreys have moved on for their various reasons, while Johann Muller returns to South Africa with all of our best wishes for everything he has provided for the club. That left three large vacancies to fill.

Therefore I repeat: patience is a virtue. Replacing these three will not immediately solve all of our problems, no matter what you think of Mark Anscombe, and this season may not live up to the standards of the last three, ergo I implore your expectations of this Ulster team to be lowered for the time being. Transition may turn out to be a very important word for us this year.

Of course I’m not saying write us off completely, the guts of the side that we had last season is still there and are hungry for revenge after a desperately unlucky defeat against Saracens in the Heineken Cup and a knock-out defeat in the Pro12 to Leinster again. If any team thinks that a game against Ulster will be any easier than it has been for the previous few years then they will be in for a shock.

What I will say, and what I think everyone will admit, is that we are definitely not as strong as before. Two reliable props in Tom Court and John Afoa have departed for pastures anew and as such the scrum is significantly weakened – an area we weren’t overly strong in to begin with. Factor in the loss of Stephen Ferris in the back row and an inconsistent Nick Williams at the base and Ulster’s forward division for this season looks rather lacklustre as compared to their rivals.

However, the biggest loss is definitely that of Johann Muller’s leadership. His physical ability, even by his own admission, was not as good as it was when he arrived and the arrival of Franco van der Merwe will rectify that, however his role as captain will not be matched. Rory Best will do a good job, but every Ulster fan will tell you the same thing: Muller was a born leader.

When he talked, everybody listened, and whenever you exude that much power, people will respect what you say and will look to you for inspiration. No offence to Rory but he won’t come close to Muller as far as his leadership goes, and it will probably be a long, long time before we see somebody else in a white shirt who does.

Meanwhile up in the coaching box we welcome Mr. Les Kiss as interim head coach. Fair play to Shane Logan for managing to negotiate that deal, although one does think that maybe the Irish assistant coach is setting himself up for a more senior role than just assistant, be that at the Kingspan or elsewhere…

Nevertheless, I can’t help but think that having someone who is so highly rated within IRFU circles as head coach, even for a year, will be of a massive benefit to Ulster and as far as interim appointments go we couldn’t ask for much better. If rumour is to be believed then maybe cutting ties with Anscombe isn’t the worst thing that Ulster could’ve done, especially with Humphreys gone too.

And so, we venture into the unknown for the first time in a while with Ulster, and it begs a lot of questions as we look to consolidate our position as a major power in European rugby. How will our new boys do? Will Les Kiss turn out to be a real success or a damp squib? How many times will we be subject to the horror that is the purple alternate shirt?

All this will be answered and more in the 2014/15 season – it’s gonna be great!

PUSHING ON

And so begin my mutterings and musings for a new season of rugby today. A new laptop to pen my mindless wanderings and a new season to look ahead to makes me happy, although looking at the clock and realising I am wide awake at 5:30am on a Saturday morning is not the most reassuring thing for my metabolism. Nevertheless I plough on into a fresh new start full of ideas that spring forth from my mind onto the page.

Last season is dead and buried, we shall dwell on it but momentarily as we consider what could have been rather than what came to pass. As we entered April confidence was booming and the team were beginning to take shape again following a particularly rough injury spell. Alas the clumsy Jared Payne tackle in the quarter-final against Sarries, and then Anscombe’s decision to play the aforementioned full-back at outside centre in the Pro12 semi-final, ultimately cost us a trophy (well, not just those two reasons but you know what I mean).

I’m not saying we would’ve necessarily won anything come the end of May given the insurmountable strength of Jonny Wilkinson’s Toulon (what’ll the English media call it now he’s departed one wonders) and the prospect of a daunting trip to Celtic Park to play the in-form Glasgow Warriors in the Pro12 final, however you cannot deny that we had two trophies placed on the table in front of us and we somehow managed to fail to look after both of them. Daylight robbery by all accounts.

And so it is with a burden on their shoulders that Johann Muller and Tom Court depart Ravenhill (or should that be the Kingspan Stadium?) without any silverware to show for their valiant efforts. It would take me more than the 750 words I try to limit myself to every week to try and explain just what Muller has brought to Ulster, not just in terms of on the field leadership, but off the field growth too. We may never see the likes of him in Belfast again.

John Afoa arrives in Gloucester trophyless too, but the less said about that the better perhaps.

But now we look to the future. A shiny new stadium with a shiny new name (more on that next week) shows signs of things to come as Ulster Rugby move into the modern era of rugby, boasting marquee signings this season of Franco van der Merwe and Louis Ludik. Okay, they aren’t quite in the Pienaar, Afoa, Muller mould, but in a pre-World Cup year you are asking a lot to find good players who are willing to move north – although Leinster seem to have done just that with the coup of underrated Wallaby lock Kane Douglas. Kudos to them.

Alarm bells ring loud and clear with the dawn of a new season though, for several reasons. First and foremost is the coach – Mark Anscombe. My opinion is worth nothing so I won’t give it, but what is worth pointing out is that he’s only on a one-year deal. It’s no secret that he was talking to Gloucester and Cardiff last season while he was in negotiations with us, and while he eventually agreed to another year at the helm, it does not bode well. Is this his last year, full stop? Or is it simply in a competitive climate, one year is simply all we can afford to offer, with his future in Belfast dependent on whether there’s something for the cleaners to polish next June? Time will tell.

All I’m saying is that if he knows this will be his last year with his hands on the rudder of the good ship Ulster, then there isn’t much motivation to push his team to glory. Sure, he could go out with a bang yadda yadda yadda, but in truth this is a dog eat dog world and regardless of how he does in 2014/15 it could be a case of David Humphreys and Shane Logan giving him a pat on the back, shaking his hand and saying, “Thanks for the memories” as he jets back off to New Zealand, regardless of the medals he may or may not carry in his hand luggage.

I’m speculating of course but it is a genuine fear of mine.

The second fear is the talent on the pitch. While I have no doubt every single player in the Ulster team bleeds white and red for their province, there’s only so far that dedication can go – that alone will not win you trophies. Just ask Leinster, they’ve been there and done it and they will confirm to you that in order to get over the line, sometimes other lines must be crossed.

Competing with the likes of Toulon, Saracens and Clermont Auvergne will prove difficult as it always has done. The money they are able to flaunt at players is, to be quite frank, ridiculous, and how the IRB do not step in and place some sort of regulations on them is beyond me because it is ruining the game to a certain degree and leading rugby down the road of wendyball (football for those who don’t know).  But where I worry for Ulster is in the nitty gritty games.

We saw last season when we had Leinster on the ropes in the semi-final we could not find that killer try to win the game – had we got it we were home dry and in a second successive Pro12 final. Too many times last season we simply stood back and let teams pick us apart at will – Scarlets, Dragons and Cardiff away to name but three. That’s where I worry nothing has changed. Our new signings are not the kinds of players who will get in there and do the dirty work for us. As much as we despise how he played, Ulster need someone like Leo Cullen (happy retirement to him, a good player on his day) who will just get under the skin of the opposition and rile them.

Those are my initial thoughts on what needs amended for next season. I worry every season about how we will compete with other teams and every year the lads always make sure to throw something in that blows us all away – not necessarily good every time. All I know is we’re in for yet another cracking season of rugby, be that in the hideously named Rugby Champions’ Cup, or the Pro12 (whoever it will be sponsored by). And whatever you do, do not expect the path to be smooth along the way.

It’s a dog eat dog world out there y’know.

DOMESTIC STRUGGLES

With just three games of the regular season left to go for Ulster, Friday night was the perfect remedy to the previous week’s disappointment.

Eight tries in a dominant display against Connacht was exactly what the doctor ordered, and although the crowd that was at Ravenhill did not total that of the one that watched them play Saracens, they were as loud as ever, and the demons of the quarter-final were banished. It was slightly disappointing that Connacht did not really live up to their billing as a side chasing the final European spot, but even so the Ulstermen were tremendously ruthless and disposed of their Irish rivals with the efficiency required over the next four weeks, and hopefully beyond.

It sets up Ulster beautifully heading into May. With the five points it means that Mark Anscombe’s side are highly likely to make it into the end of season play-offs, probably at the expense of the Ospreys, for the second year running, although that is the least of Ulster’s aims – they are now into second place in the league, and with games against Glasgow, Leinster and Munster still to come, there is still an outside chance that they could top the league after the regular season again.

But the one player that stood out for everyone was Andrew Trimble.

The rise of Trimble has been monumental. We all knew how good he was before this season, and how he has been overlooked for Ireland for so long is beyond me. But even this season he has improved immensely and Friday night was testament to that – three tries, two assists and what was pretty much a flawless performance. On a night when Joe Schmidt was in attendance at Ravenhill, and international rivals Robbie Henshaw, Tommy Bowe and Craig Gilroy were also on showcase, Trimble was by far the best player on the pitch and will have done his chances of holding onto the Ireland wing berth no harm.

It is rather ironic that in the year that Trimble is recalled to the Ireland team they win the Six Nations. Now obviously I am not advocating that he was the sole reason, there were plenty of other factors that were at play, but it’s also true that Trimble played a massive role in helping Ireland to their first Six Nations triumph for five years. He displayed a wide range of skills that he was never allowed to show during the Kidney era and now he can look forward to an extended (and deserved) run in his international team.

As for Ulster we are now looking at probably our three toughest games of the year in four weeks, and right at the business end of the season too. Whoever creates the fixture lists for the Pro12 would have some questions to answer if I was let at them, but as it is we must plough on in our quest for the top four. With the injuries we have if we can come out of our final three games with two or even all three victories then it will be a credit to our team and it will be a huge motivational boost heading into the play-offs. One win will get them into the final four, three will probably get them the top seeding.

This week it’s Glasgow who are fresh off their incredibly controlled victory at Thomond Park on Saturday night. Possibly an extra day’s rest will be very beneficial for the Ulstermen, but it’s extremely hard to get away from the fact that this is going to be a very tough test for us. We’ve already lost to Glasgow once this season (and no-one needs reminded of that train wreck) and even though they sit in fourth, their league position belittles how good they are – Glasgow are one of the most consistent sides in the Pro12, and but for a few unlucky results they would be above us and more than likely above Leinster too. In my opinion, they are our second biggest challengers for the Pro12 title.

It’s unavoidable to think that Friday’s game is a must win. It is a perfect chance for us to solidify our position in the play-off places and knock one of our rivals down a peg too. If we lose that crucial home semi-final could be beyond our grasp and I fancy our chances a lot more at Scotstoun than at Thomond Park due to its hostile atmosphere. No pressure on the guys, but if we lose this Friday night, we may be looking at travelling down south for a play-off game. Again.

Hopefully it’s a Good Friday for us anyway.

END OF THE LINE

To put Saturday into context I will recall my recent golf trip to Hilton Templepatrick. I started off quite well with two pars on the first two holes and I thought I was going quite well. Then I came to the par 5 third hole and walked off the green with a disappointing triple bogey 8 having duffed a chip up at the green. It was hard to come back from that and in the end I posted a disappointing +12 (off a handicap of 6). Similarly, once Ulster found themselves behind in the number of players they had on the field, it was very hard for them to compete with their opponents.

So, where to begin?

Saturday’s game will go down as a classic in Heineken Cup history. A red card, two sides going at it hammer and tongs, and a final assault that ultimately came up short. While the game may have been effectively over as a contest by the fourth minute with the dismissal of Jared Payne, nobody told Johann Muller and his Ulster players that it was and but for a few inches, Paddy Jackson’s kick might have sneaked over the posts and Ulster would be heading to Dublin in two weeks’ time to take on the might of Clermont.

It was a game of incredibly fine margins and sadly it was one that ended up being decided by who had more players. Maybe the red card would have blown over had Saracens then run away with the game but the sheer commitment and desire shown by the Ulster players made sure that there were only two points in it by the final whistle. As it is, the sending off will be a massive talking point for the next few weeks and Ulster have every right to feel slightly aggrieved that they won’t be at the Aviva on the 26^th.

We could debate the red card for the next month if we wanted, there are so many ifs and buts surrounding it, but all that’s left to say is that it was reckless and Payne can’t have too many complaints over it: he effectively made Garces’ case for him. Maybe a red card was a little harsh but you can see why the Frenchman elected to send off the Kiwi full-back altogether.

Moving on though, and you can’t underestimate how much of a boost this will give Ulster. To be down to fourteen men for seventy-six minutes yet still be within a penalty or drop goal at the end of the game is incredible. But that is what Ulster have created within this squad: a belief and a resilience. They may have lost on Saturday night, but this loss will do a lot for the squad’s confidence.

On the other hand though it is a bit worrying that the best that the PRL can offer could only just about see off the fourteen men of Ulster. Whether it was down to the brilliance of the home side or not, Saracens did not cover themselves in any glory whatsoever. The usually reliable Owen Farrell was uncharacteristically off-form and they could only score their three tries by exploiting the space left by Payne’s absence, although to be fair that was very tactically astute and their defence at the end was exemplary.

But even so, it is evident that if they play the same way against Clermont in the semi-finals they will be in for a tough time. Good luck to them nevertheless and that will be a cracking semi-final, as will be Toulon vs. Munster – c’mon you Munstermen!

As for Ulster it is back to the Pro12, although it will be without two influential players in Ruan Pienaar and Rory Best. It will be a very tough ask to even get to the final of the league without them let alone win it so for the rest of the season it looks like Ulster will have their backs up against the wall if they didn’t already. With games to come against Glasgow (away), Leinster (home) and Munster (away) to come, finishing in the top four may be a difficulty too.

The season isn’t over, but it’s looking likely it will be another trophyless season for Ulster. It’s hard to see us winning in Thomond Park without Pienaar and Best and presuming we go away to either there again or the RDS Arena in the semi-finals then it’s looking even more unlikely that we’ll be back in the Grand Final in May.

End of the line. Maybe in more ways than one.

THE BIG ONE

We’ve been waiting a long time, but after three long months, the big game is finally here!

Let’s leave last Saturday in the past. For whatever reason we simply didn’t show up against Cardiff, and I guarantee that won’t happen again, especially not this week. If our mindset isn’t in the right place for a Heineken Cup quarter-final then to be quite frank we don’t deserve to go through, and if we aren’t near top form on Saturday then Saracens will steamroll over us – they are a top quality side.

In fact, Saturday will be by far the toughest test we will have faced all season. Saracens are a team that ooze quality all over the park and they deserve the respect they get – top of the Aviva Premiership, putting in some formidable performances recently and boasting eight current internationals, they are a team that will test us in every area of the pitch. Anybody else remember their 64-6 humiliation of Connacht back in January?

Look no further than an incredibly talented back line for where their biggest threats will come from. Chris Ashton and his “Ash Splash” we know all too well after last season’s quarter-final, Owen Farrell is lethal off the kicking tee, and Alex Goode is one of the best counter-attacking full backs in European rugby. Add in the attacking potency of Charlie Hodgson off the bench and that is one lethal back line.

Where we can compete is up front. In the two games they lost against Toulouse, Saracens were outmuscled and battered about by the French side at the breakdown, and with Rory Best, Dan Tuohy and Chris Henry on the field, we have more than enough to actively compete with them at the breakdown this Saturday. The reintroduction of Namibian openside Jacques Burger will help Saracens’ plight but it is an area they definitely struggle in.

Don’t forget, we are still the only team unbeaten in the competition, we are at home in front of a sell-out 18,100 capacity Ravenhill crowd, and therefore the expectation will be fully upon us. And rightly so, with 75% of quarter-finals being won by the home team, and with our stellar record in the competition so far, strictly speaking this should be the game that will be won by the home team!

Of course it’s anything but that. Ask Munster last year who took down Harlequins at the Stoop, or even us a couple of years ago in our smash-and-grab effort at Thomond Park – winning away from home in the quarter-finals is far from impossible. Improbable yes, impossible no. Therefore, you wouldn’t blame Saracens for coming over with high expectations, especially after last season’s clash.

I won’t remind you of it. But needless to say, things appear to be lining up slightly in their favour: they have the advantage of winning last season, they carry the better result into the game from last week, and effectively they have nothing to lose as they are the side expected to be knocked out. They can come to Ravenhill and give it a good go knowing if they lose they’re simply sticking to the status quo.

Mark McCall knows exactly what a Ravenhill crowd can be like and therefore he will concentrate on making sure his side get off to a quick start and silence the Ulster faithful. That will put them at a huge advantage, and if the crowd goes silent then Saracens will very much have the upper hand.

But still, Ulster have the players and the belief to do it. The Cardiff result will have slapped some sense into them and they will be determined to exact revenge on the English side after last season’s humiliation at Twickenham. With a 6 from 6 record to maintain too, you can guarantee that Mark Anscombe’s men won’t go down without a fight either – how sweet would it be if in the final season of the Heineken Cup we could be the first team to go win every single game.

So wherever you are, however you watch it, make sure you stand up, sing loud, and sing proud for your Ulstermen this Saturday night!

This is the time of champions.

Super Eight

No, I’m not referring to the cricket, although how sweet was it to see England capitulate against the Netherlands!

There are eight super teams left in the Heineken Cup and three other cracking ties to watch this weekend, and I’ll take a brief look at the other three ties.

Munster v Toulouse: Irish allegiance shines through here and I’d like to see Munster put away the French giants with relative ease. Toulouse haven’t been brilliant this season and if they are missing Louis Picamoles then I don’t fancy them storming Thomond Park and leaving with the win, especially with Munster in decent form. If the Limerick men can play their usual game and maintain the same clinical finishing that they have so far this season then they should be just fine.

Clermont v Leicester: Probably the easiest tie to call, Leicester are not the force they were a few years ago and we all know about Clermont’s ridiculously long home record. With the Cyber Vulcans cheering them all the way and a full set to pick from, Vern Cotter and his team simply need to do the basics right and let the home advantage carry them through. Will Leicester break the record against all the odds? Don’t count on it.

Toulon v Leinster: The second best tie of the weekend (!) and what a tie it is. The defending champions at home to arguably the best team in Europe and it’s a very tough one to call. Toulon have been in and out of form this season yet still find themselves third in the Top14, while Leinster are hitting their usual end of season stride and are confident after dispatching Munster last weekend. You’re a brave man to bet against either of these teams, home advantage may be the clinical factor.

I’m going for four home wins this weekend. History states that there will be one away win this weekend, but I’m going to go against the grain and say home advantage will pay dividends for the top four seeds. Well, at least I hope it will.