OLD GUARD IN NEWPORT

I have that feeling this week. I have no idea why. I just have it.

You know that feeling where everything is just going to go wrong. That’s the feeling I’m referring to – and I do not like it one bit. Rodney Parade is one of those awkward grounds where you’re unsure how the game is going to play out. Despite being eleventh in the league, the Dragons have a terrible knack of pulling off shock results.

Here’s hoping this week isn’t the same…

Ulster on Parade

Ulster are two from two in Wales so far this season, and three from three is a real possibility. And it seems Mark Anscombe wants that to be the case as he has selected a very strong side for the game. With Tommy Bowe moving to full-back, it allows Craig Gilroy to once again make a claim for a spot at wing. Declan Fitzpatrick returns after injury to play at 3, while Lewis Stevenson replaces Johann Muller at lock.

But the big news is the change at half backs, as Paul Marshall returns at 9 to partner Ruan Pienaar who moves out one to play at fly-half. An ample duo without a doubt, but not one Ulster would be looking to use much, especially with Paddy Jackson playing out of his skin.

My suspicions are that it all feeds back to Dublin. Good ol’ Declan Kidney will be sitting back in his chair, on the phone to Mark Anscombe saying, “Yeah, I want a look at Paul Marshall to see if I should add him to my squad. You must play him this week.” If this is the case, then unfortunately Ulster probably have to comply.

But before I get into a whole debate I have to remember we have a match tomorrow. Time to get down to business.

Ulster’s scrum was pushed around by Glasgow last Friday night. This is the chance for them to redeem themselves and show that they can stand up to other sides like they did in the pre-Heineken Cup games. The lineout will also be under a bit of scrutiny as well – it wasn’t as solid as it has been before.

But aside from that, this is a game where Ulster will be targeting a big win. Maybe even a bonus point win. Good teams make sure they win these games - great teams make sure they get maximum points. Ulster want to be in that great team category. A bonus point tomorrow will be another step closer to that.

As I have already said, the Dragons are not the greatest team in the world. But they cause problems. Chavhanga with his pace on the wing, Tuilagi’s power at centre, Rob Sidoli’s presence in the line-out and Toby Faletau’s might in the back row are the stand out men. All big guys, but easily stopped.

A staggering fact to finish with – Ulster have only won one of their last six games in Newport. Yep, just one. Against the fourth best region in Wales, that is a terrible stat. The side that we’ve chosen shows that we do not want it to become one from seven.

Not only that, but the unbeaten run would end. That crucial unbeaten run that makes us the team to beat. Over the next month and a half, there are two banana skin matches. This is the first one and Treviso is the other. Both are winnable. Both are losable. If the Ulster heads are in the right place, we could head to Llanelli in December with our unbeaten record still intact. Now wouldn’t that be something.

Ah, prediction time. Sometimes I wonder why I bother, since I change it every five minutes. This week my problem is whether I should risk predicting the try bonus point. Yes, I know I had that bad feeling, but I guess that’s just initial nerves. You know what – I just can’t see us getting the bonus point. Might go close, but not close enough. Prediction – Ulster by 19.

At Rodney Parade, 7:05pm

DRAGONS: 15. Tom Prydie, 14. Will Harries, 13. Adam Hughes, 12. Andy Tuilagi, 11. Tonderai Chavhanga, 10. Lewis Robling, 9. Jonathan Evans; 1. Owen Evans, 2. Steve Jones (c), 3. Nathan Buck, 4. Adam Jones, 5. Rob Sidoli, 6. Tom Brown, 7. Jevon Groves, 8. Toby Faletau.

Subs: 16. Sam Parry, 17. Nathan Williams, 18. Dan Way, 19. Ian Nimmo, 20. Nic Cudd, 21. Liam Davies, 22. Steffan Jones, 23. Pat Leach.

ULSTER: 15. Tommy Bowe, 14. Andrew Trimble, 13. Darren Cave, 12. Paddy Wallace, 11. Craig Gilroy, 10. Ruan Pienaar, 9. Paul Marshall; 1. Tom Court, 2. Rory Best, 3. Declan Fitzpatrick, 4. Lewis Stevenson, 5. Dan Tuohy, 6. Iain Henderson, 7. Chris Henry (c), 8. Nick Williams.

Subs: 16. Nigel Brady, 17. Callum Black, 18. John Afoa, 19. Mike McComish, 20. Roger Wilson, 21. Paddy Jackson, 22. Luke Marshall, 23. Jared Payne.

Referee: Peter Fitzgibbon (IRFU, 42^nd competition game)
Assistant referees: Leighton Hodges, Neil Perkins (WRU)
Citing commissioner: Russell Howard (WRU)
TMO: Neil Ballard (WRU)

Around the grounds

And so to the other games in the PRO12 this weekend...

 

Edinburgh v Scarlets –  I am so tempted to go for a home win, you never know what Edinburgh are going to do. But their European form shows us how fragile they are. The Scarlets will have the firepower. Scarlets win.

Munster v Zebre – I don’t need to explain where this will go. Munster win.

Ospreys v Connacht – Almost as open-and-shut as the Munster game, but Connacht love to give teams a scare, so there may be a chance. BIG emphasis on maybe. Ospreys win.

Leinster v Cardiff – Last year, Leinster thrashed Cardiff in the league by 43 points and in the Heineken Cup by 31 points. It’ll be something similar on Saturday. Leinster win.

Treviso v Glasgow – Glasgow were poor last week in atrocious conditions. Away in Treviso, they shouldn’t improve. Treviso are in good form and may really attack this game. Treviso win.