Ulster are off this week (sadly) so it looks
like we’ll have to settle for international games instead, but luckily this
week we have a cracker at the Aviva. It’s a game that only last year could have
been a straight shoot-out for the championship, but this year both sides find
themselves struggling.
In fact, whoever loses will be facing a
Wooden Spoon match next weekend. Ireland could face a straight shoot-out for
bottom spot in Rome against Italy, while France would have to avoid defeat away
to Scotland in order to avoid finishing bottom of the Six Nations for the first
time in the history of the competition.
There’s two ways this game could go…
Two
teams, one loser
You would probably have expected me to say
‘one winner’ instead of ‘one loser’ yeah? Wrong. Being brutally honest, this
match means absolutely nothing for the winner – both sides are out of the
running for the overall championship. The only thing that the winner will get
is the security that they cannot finish last in the table, and that’s not
really much of a consolation.
As for the loser, as I mentioned, they will
face a game next week that they didn’t want to face – a game to avoid finishing
last. In fact, if France lose tomorrow then it will be a match they must win
simply to get a point on the board!
So that makes tomorrow’s game even more
important for both sides. And in my opinion there will be two ways this match
will play out, if both sides realise they must win – it will either be a
scrappy, low-scoring affair, or a game in which both sides will go all out for
it.
All you have to do is watch French club rugby
and you’ll realise that Les Bleus love
to play an expansive running game, no matter what the weather. The selection of
Toulouse utility back Maxime Medard would also suggest they are looking to play
an exciting attacking brand of rugby. Medard is a player you don’t want running
at you in a match near the try line.
In fact, the French side is stocked full of
great players in all positions. Look no further than their inside centre Wesley
Fofana who is arguably the best 12 in the world right now. They also have
riches of talent at scrum-half as well with the choice between two fantastic
players – Maxime Machenaud or Morgan Parra. They even have Freddie Michalak who
can slot in there too.
But it is in the back row that France really
have the upper hand. Their back three are undoubtedly one of the best back row
combinations in the world, if not the best – Yannick Nyanga, Thierry Dusautoir
and Louis Picamoles. Those three will completely dominate the breakdown
tomorrow and unless the Irish back row is on top form, it could be a long
evening for the guys in green.
Enough about France however, it is time to
focus on the Irish because this is possibly the biggest match they have faced
in the Six Nations so far – for the wrong reasons.
They are lucky that Cian Healy is back
because he holds up the Irish scrum. Against Scotland, first Tom Court, then
David Kilcoyne were both pulverised in the scrum. Having Healy back is a real
boost for Ireland and will hopefully solidify their scrum. As usual, the side
in the ascendancy at the set piece will usually go on and win.
But it will also be a big test for Paddy
Jackson. After coming off the back of a horror kicking show against Scotland,
it will be crucial for him to play well and reassure Ireland fans that he is
the man for the job. If he plays the same way as he did two weeks ago out of
hand then he will be fine, but his goal kicking must improve.
In my opinion, it is also Declan Kidney’s
last chance to try and keep his job if it hasn’t gone already. Lose and I don’t
think there’s any way back for the Cork man. Win, and he may stand a chance of
being kept on as coach. However, it may not even be enough just to win. Losing
at home to England, and then losing to Scotland too has probably hammered the
final nails in his coffin. He has taken Ireland as far as he can.
I’m struggling at a prediction as I don’t
know how the match will go this weekend. If it is a tight match then I’m
leaning towards Ireland. A wide running match would suggest it will be a France
win. In all honesty I should go for a draw! However, I will predict that home
advantage will shade it for the Irishmen. Prediction
– Ireland by 5.
Teams
Ireland make three personnel changes to the
side that lost to Scotland two weeks ago. Craig Gilroy misses out through
injury so he is replaced by Fergus McFadden on the wing. Cian Healy has had his
ban overturned so he is back to take his place at loosehead prop, as is Mike
McCarthy who returns from injury to play again at lock.
France also make three personnel changes, the
most surprising being a recall for out of form fly-half Frederic Michalak, who
replaces Francois Trinh-Duc. Maxime Medard makes his first start for the
national side for nearly two years at wing in place of Benjamin Fall who drops
out of the 23 altogether. The only other change is at centre with Florian Fritz
coming in for Mathieu Bastareaud who drops to the bench. The forwards are
unchanged from the match against England.
Ireland vs. France
Saturday 9th March, 17:00
Aviva Stadium, Dublin
Six Nations, Round 4
Live on BBC1 and RTE TWO
IRELAND
15. Rob Kearney, 14. Fergus McFadden, 13.
Brian O’Driscoll, 12. Luke Marshall, 11. Keith Earls, 10. Paddy Jackson, 9.
Conor Murray; 1. Cian Healy, 2. Rory Best, 3. Mike Ross, 4. Mike McCarthy, 5.
Donnacha Ryan, 6. Peter O’Mahony, 7. Sean O’Brien, 8. Jamie Heaslip (c).
16. Sean Cronin, 17. David Kilcoyne, 18. Stephen
Archer, 19. Donncha O’Callaghan, 20. Iain Henderson, 21. Eoin Reddan, 22. Ian
Madigan, 23. Luke Fitzgerald.
FRANCE
15. Yoann Huget, 14. Vincent Clerc, 13.
Florian Fritz, 12. Wesley Fofana, 11. Maxime Medard, 10. Frederic Michalak, 9.
Morgan Parra; 1. Thomas Domingo, 2. Benjamin Kayser, 3. Nicolas Mas, 4.
Christophe Samson, 5. Yoann Maestri, 6. Yannick Nyanga, 7. Thierry Dusautoir
(c), 8. Louis Picamoles.
16. Guilhem Guirado, 17. Vincent Debaty, 18.
Luc Ducalcon, 19. Sebastien Vahaamahina, 20. Antonie Claassen, 21. Maxime
Machenaud, 22. Francois Trinh-Duc, 23. Mathieu Bastareaud.
Referee: Steve Walsh (Australia)
Assistant Referees: Wayne Barnes, Greg Garner
(both England)
TMO: Nigel Whitehouse (Wales)
Assessor: Clayton Thomas (Wales)
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