In some ways it’s good that the Six Nations all hinges on each game of
the final weekend – it means there is plenty of exciting rugby for fans to
enjoy, permutations to work out as the games unfold and several hours of
nail-biting excitement. It sums up exactly what the Six Nations is about
really: six teams battling it out over five gruelling weeks to be named
European champions and to have it all resting on the three Round Five games is
incredibly exciting.
Flip that around, and it is far from ideal from Ireland. Not only did
their Grand Slam ambitions evaporate at the Millennium Stadium on Saturday,
their chances of winning the Six Nations probably evaporated too. With Wales
likely to put something closely resembling a cricket score on Italy first up
and England strong favourites to dispose of the French to close out the 2015
contest, it puts a huge amount of pressure on Ireland to run in plenty of
points at Murrayfield in between.
And let’s not forget that the French, amidst all of their selection
and consistency issues, are still in with a chance of stealing the competition
outright should results go their way, even as unlikely as that sounds (they
require Italy and Scotland to both win before them). It leaves a thrilling
conclusion to the 2015 RBS Six Nations lying tantalisingly in the balance.
You would have to say England hold the advantage. While Wales may face
the weakest side, England have the most important thing in their favour:
playing last. Even though Wales will probably put a big score on Italy, they
simply have to keep scoring in the hope that the amount they win by will be
enough to push their points difference high enough to see off their rivals. On
the other hand, England will go into Le
Crunch knowing exactly how much they need to win by to secure the trophy.
Unfair? You bet.
Spare a thought for poor Ireland sandwiched in the middle. Even if
they do manage to surpass the total set by Wales, they still face an unknown in
that they have no idea how much further they need to go to also hold England at
bay. Indeed, Ireland’s game against Scotland isn’t even a given win – the
Scottish have plenty of motivation to cause a massive shock and avoid picking
up the Wooden Spoon.
It will be intriguing to see how all three coaches approach their
various contests as well. Stuart Lancaster has the luxury of seeing how the
other results pan out before ultimately deciding on how to deal with Philippe
Saint-Andre’s side – a luxury that Warren Gatland and Joe Schmidt do not share.
You’d be surprised if Gatland didn’t instruct his side to go all out for tries
against a side that were nilled on their own turf a week ago, while Schmidt’s
philosophy is anybody’s guess. One can’t help but feel the Kiwi coach will be
slightly more pragmatic than his Welsh counterpart.
Does who deserves to win
play any part at this point? I don’t really think so because there hasn’t been
anybody who has set this tournament alight. Ireland, despite their Grand Slam
aspirations, never really got out of second gear and needed to do the basics
right to breeze past Italy, France and England. When finally faced with a stern
test in Cardiff they buckled, with even the reliable Jonny Sexton being off his
game. If they do lose this Championship, the Millennium Stadium is where it
happened.
And how about Wales? Well they did show fantastic character to go to
the Stade de France and come away with the two points, however their
disappointing opening day show against the English is going to come back to
haunt them, and that juvenile tunnel spat before that game marred what could
have been a fascinating spectacle. Still, they got the business done against
Ireland and that was no mean feat.
England have probably been the most consistent of the three main
contenders, however that consistency deserted them when they visited the Aviva
in Round Three. That game alone should be justification for them not winning
the Championship, yet here they are in possibly the best position of them all.
Their back line has been glorious to watch and has shown lethal precision, but
like Ireland, in the big game they fell apart. Will they do so again on
Saturday?
So my prediction? First up, Wales will coast to victory over Italy
with ease, only to be surpassed by Ireland who will beat Scotland by just
enough points to push themselves into top spot before the French put up a brave
fight initially at Twickenham, only to concede a couple of tries (likely from
either Anthony Watson or Jonathan Joseph) and fall apart as French teams to do.
England get enough points to win the championship.
Whether that prediction comes true or not, what I do know is that from
start to finish on Saturday we have a lot of running rugby to look forward to,
coupled with a lot of nerves, sweating and typing on calculators! Can the Welsh
banish their opening game woes to win? Will the English chariot be swinging low
all the way to the trophy? Could France shock the rugby world and steal the
most unlikely of victories? Or will Ireland defend their title despite their
slip up in Cardiff?
Sit back and thoroughly enjoy, everyone!
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