A bonus point win signed and sealed against one of the Pro12’s lesser
sides is all we could have asked for really – it was dogged and at times a
little ugly but all five points was exactly what the doctor ordered, and going
into four incredibly tough games against Connacht, Leinster, Munster and
Glasgow it has put us back on the right track to reach the play-offs again for
the third consecutive season following the defeat in Newport.
And yet somehow I come out of this weekend’s Pro12 action slightly
frustrated. Not at Ulster, might I add, but at the rest of the Pro12.
On the same night that Ulster were disposing of Cardiff, there was a
glorious opportunity for Glasgow to put Leinster to the sword and more than
likely drop them out of the top four hunt altogether, however the Scots were
wasteful and complacent and gave the Dubliners three points, while salvaging
three themselves, in a 34-34 draw at the RDS Arena. An exhilarating game, yes,
but possibly the worst result Ulster could have hoped for – we ideally wanted a
win from either side, and three points for each feels like both sides won.
Glasgow still lead the way while Leinster are still clinging on by their
fingertips to heels of the top four.
Even more disappointing was the capitulation of Connacht at Thomond
Park. With the form that Pat Lam’s men were in I thought they could maybe even
scrape the victory down in Limerick, and for a while it seemed like they stood
a good chance. But then the class of the Munstermen shone through as they ran
away with it in the end – 45-20 maybe wasn’t an accurate reflection on how the
game went, but Munster deserved the bonus point that keeps them level with us
in second.
Over in Swansea it was just as we all expected – the Ospreys turning
over Zebre with ease. Still, I couldn’t help but feel a pang of disappointment
when the home side ran in their fourth try, even though I knew it was a matter
of when rather than if. It rounded off a weekend that started well and ended
just alright, with no team making any significant moves up or down the table.
It leaves us reaching for calculators, pulling out fixture lists and
jotting down predictions in desperation as we try and determine who will seize
those play-off places.
|
TEAM
|
Round 19
|
Round 20
|
Round 21
|
Round 22
|
|
Glasgow
(60)
|
Cardiff (H)
|
Connacht (A)
|
Ospreys (A)
|
Ulster (H)
|
|
Ulster
(58)
|
Connacht (A)
|
Leinster (H)
|
Munster (H)
|
Glasgow (A)
|
|
Munster
(58)
|
Edinburgh (A)
|
Treviso (H)
|
Ulster (A)
|
Dragons (H)
|
|
Ospreys
(56)
|
Treviso (A)
|
Cardiff (A)
|
Glasgow (H)
|
Connacht (A)
|
|
Leinster
(52)
|
Dragons (A)
|
Ulster (A)
|
Treviso (H)
|
Edinburgh (A)
|
Munster and the Ospreys look to be in pole position to take two of
those spots, although I cannot say which yet. You would expect both to pick up
at least three wins from their last four games, and in the Ospreys’ case
possibly all four, with Munster’s only slip-up at home to us in the penultimate
round at the Kingspan.
Leinster you would also expect to pick up three wins, again with their
only slip-up coming in Belfast, but given the fact they already languish four
points behind the Ospreys in fourth you would have to say that they probably
need all four victories to stand a chance of reaching the final four – and maybe
even then that wouldn’t be enough.
Glasgow probably hold enough of a lead to be going into the final
weekend with a shot at top spot against us, however with two tricky away trips
to Galway and Swansea, they could come unstuck against both Connacht and the
Ospreys. That said, you’d expect them to triumph in at least one of those games
and therefore set up a final day top spot decider against…
…our beloved Ulster! Home advantage should prove crucial in our games
against Leinster and Munster, which on top of a victory away in Connacht next
Saturday should be enough to guarantee our safe passage into the final four.
Certainly we do not want it coming down to the final day with us needing a
result at Scotstoun to make it into the play-offs, because that is not an
appealing prospect at all.
Certainly Connacht are going to play a big role in the final standing
of the Pro12. With us, the Ospreys and Glasgow all still to travel West in need
of a result, one team slipping up in Galway could shake the whole thing up –
remember that Connacht are still very much in the fight for that vital sixth
place to guarantee Champions’ Cup qualification and therefore have a lot to
play for too.
It’ll all come down to fine margins…
The Hound’s current top four
prediction
1. Glasgow Warriors, 74
2. Munster Rugby, 72
3. Ospreys, 72
4. Ulster Rugby, 71
-----------------------------------
5.
Leinster Rugby, 66
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