Thursday 27 September 2012

CAPITAL CRUNCH

Today I look at what will be Ulster’s biggest test so far, under the lights of the big city…

After the tragic events of last week, Ulster return to the pitch this weekend to face the Cardiff Blues in the PRO12. And it will be some game…

Who will be black and Blue?
Last season, Ulster were left rueing their missed chances when they slumped to another of their losses on the road. After taking an early lead through a Robbie Diack try, they conceded two soft tries to winger Tom James and veteran fly half Dan Parks, while the aforementioned Parks kicked eleven points to give the Blues the win.

This time round only one of those players will play (Tom James) with Diack injured and Parks off to Connacht. Indeed, only seven of the thirty players that started the match last February will play this week, and fourteen of those thirty have moved on to new teams.

This weekend it should be a completely different affair. Ulster haven’t been successful in the Arms Park since 2005, however that win was in September – maybe fate is on their side?

This is no time to get superstitious though! I don’t believe in fate and I’m not going to base my prediction on that. Instead, Ulster will have to be at their best to return from the Arms Park with a hard fought win. Cardiff proved their talent with a crushing bonus-point win over Treviso. Ulster must make sure that they don’t suffer the same fate…

But Ulster haven’t faced a harder test than this yet. Munster came to Ravenhill with a tenacity and ferocity that we hadn’t faced, but lacked that final something and were duly dispatched. This game, however, is away from home and against a side that are third and will want to mount a serious title charge after being written off by many before the start of the season.

Their team is not foolproof, no. Young teenager Harry Robinson has replaced Wales international Alex Cuthbert on the wing after the latter withdrew with a hamstring injury. He’ll have Andrew Trimble running at him all night – a match up he may not fancy.

Anybody remember Jason Tovey? The ex-Dragons fly half was brought in to replace the outgoing Dan Parks but instead he found himself warming the bench after illness. Instead, he had to watch Rhys Patchell steer Cardiff to victories over Treviso, Connacht and the Dragons, but crash at home against Edinburgh. He’ll want to prove he will be the Blues’ number one at number ten.

But for the areas they lack in, they make up for in experience. All Ireland fans will remember Bradley Davies after his tip-tackle in last season’s Six Nations – he’ll be running out for his 100th cap in a blue jersey. Not bad for a guy who’s only 25.

In the midfield, centre Jamie Roberts in no stranger to a rugby match either having played 76 times for Cardiff and 44 times for Wales. Anscombe has switched Darren Cave to the unfamiliar position of inside centre to counter-act Roberts’ presence on the field and allow young Mike Allen to flourish outside him. Roberts vs. Cave will be some clash.

In the back row, Sam Warburton needs no introduction. The Wales captain made his long awaited return to the club stage against Edinburgh and hasn’t looked back since. Watch out for his work at the breakdown which makes him such a formidable opponent.

And if you haven’t heard of Andy Kyriacou then you obviously haven’t followed Ulster long. The hooker admitted that this will be an emotional match for him, not only because of the circumstances, but considering this is the first time he’ll have met his former team-mates since Nevin Spence’s death.

Where will the game be won? Obviously this week I can’t use my usual cheesy answer of ‘The crowd will win it!’ This week it will be down to the players and how they play.

In our last two games the scrum has been so dominant with Court, Brady and Afoa controlling the set piece. Cardiff have a rather unproven prop in Nathan Trevett, who will be going up against the World Cup winner Afoa. On paper it looks like it will be a walkover in the scrum. Maybe it will be. But the front row have to get the job done, or they could look foolish.

Ulster’s returning internationals must make their mark as well. Tommy Bowe will be relishing a first start for his home province and will be looking forward to attacking Tom James. A try on his return debut must be his aim. Dan Tuohy must continue on Johann Muller’s work in the captain’s absence and Chris Henry has to lead from the front and by example. Players like Allen and Henderson will draw from this and the team can flourish from there.

They first must establish a firm base – gain good possession in good territory early on and build on it. Make sure the Blues don’t get any momentum, keep knocking over the penalties if we can’t get over the whitewash, and make sure we’re always either ahead or right behind them.

As I said, I don’t believe in fate, superstitions, luck or coincidence. But, for the Ospreys match I was negative and said we’d lose. Thankfully I was wrong. This week I’m very tempted to go the same way in the hope the same thing happens, even though I think Ulster will win. But no, I’ll stick by my guns and go for an Ulster win, but by a small margin. Prediction – Ulster by 5.

Selection headaches
Mark Anscombe will undoubtedly have ruffled some feathers with his team selection this weekend, leaving out the in-form duo of Luke Marshall and Lewis Stevenson. Instead, Mike Allen moves to the centre to accommodate Tommy Bowe’s return and Neil McComb starts at lock. Iain Henderson also starts at second row for the first time in an Ulster shirt.

I’m not going to argue with his choices after our start to the season. All we can do is put faith in the coach and hope his choices are the right ones for the club. After all – he hasn’t let us down so far, has he?

Around the grounds
A new addition to my Thursday blog, I’ll look at each of the PRO12 games in the coming weekend and give my verdict on how they’ll go…

Dragons vs. Edinburgh – The Dragons haven’t hit top form yet and will want to cause an upset, but Edinburgh should have enough talent to leave them empty handed. Dragons 13-23 Edinburgh

Glasgow vs. Zebre – Only one way this will go, and it won’t be a happy trip for the away fans. The Scots will run riot. Glasgow 32-9 Zebre

Connacht vs. Leinster – I can see Connacht pushing them all the way, but Leinster should have enough to grab the win. Connacht 16-24 Leinster

Ospreys vs. Munster – Undoubtedly the game of the weekend and it will be a second win for the defending champions. Well, just. Ospreys 17-16 Munster

Treviso vs. Scarlets – The Scarlets should extend their lead in the league, although Treviso have been doing not too badly and should get a losing bonus point. Treviso 25-30 Scarlets

Match details

Ulster
15. Jared Payne, 14. Tommy Bowe, 13. Mike Allen, 12. Darren Cave, 11. Andrew Trimble, 10. Paddy Jackson, 9. Paul Marshall; 1. Tom Court, 2. Rob Herring, 3. John Afoa, 4. Neil McComb, 5. Dan Tuohy, 6. Iain Henderson, 7. Chris Henry (c), 8. Nick Williams.

Subs: 16. Rob Herring, 17. Callum Black, 18. Adam Macklin, 19. Lewis Stevenson, 20. Mike McComish, 21. Michael Heaney, 22. Paddy Wallace, 23. Craig Gilroy.

Cardiff Blues
15. Dan Fish, 14. Harry Robinson, 13. Dafydd Hewitt, 12. Jamie Roberts, 11. Tom James, 10. Jason Tovey, 9. Lloyd Williams; 1. Nathan Trevett, 2. Andy Kyriacou, 3. Taufao’ao Filise, 4. Bradley Davies, 5. James Down, 6. Robin Copeland, 7. Sam Warburton, 8. Andries Pretorius (c).

Subs: 16. Rhys Williams, 17. Campese Ma’afu, 18. Scott Andrews, 19. Lou Reed, 20. Rory Watts-Jones, 21. Rob Lewis, 22. Gareth Davies, 23. Tom Williams.

Cardiff Arms Park, 7:05pm

Referee: Marius Mitrea (Italy, 11th competition game)
Assistants: Nigel Owens, Ian Davies (both Wales)
Citing Commissioner: Richard Gwynn (Wales)
TMO: Neil Ballard (Wales)

Live on BBC Wales and BBC NI

No comments:

Post a Comment