Thursday 13 September 2012

WHAT'S THAT COMING OVER THE HILL, IS IT A MUNSTER?

Today I look at how Ulster will fare against their southern counterparts tomorrow, and touch on the subject of a certain Lions tour on the horizon…

Five months ago, Ulster squared off against Munster in a tense situation that won't be replicated tomorrow night. Sunday 8th April was the Heineken Cup Quarter-Final in Thomond Park, Limerick.

From my lofty seat, three rows from the top of the East Stand, I could see everything – Craig Gilroy’s mesmeric solo try, Ruan Pienaar’s majestic goal kicking, Tomas O’Leary’s fatal knock on and the tears of 18,000 Munster fans. It was a day to remember.

It was the first time Munster had lost a knock out match in the European Cup at Thomond Park. ‘Fortress Thomond’ had been breached by the noisy neighbours, whose fans were jubilant. Those fans didn’t leave the stadium for nearly half an hour after the match – the victory ‘parade’ went on that long. The iconic picture of Stevie Ferris with his hands behind his ears will last in our memories.

But while it’s still nice talking about a great win now, rewind back to before the match and be brutally honest – did you think we were going to win? In my case, driving down to Thomond I was weighing up all of the factors. The teams were fairly balanced, maybe even slightly in our favour. But it was the so-called ‘Thomond factor’ that scared me most, and that impenetrable record that Munster seemed to have. I went down in hope rather than expectation. But I knew we could win.

And we did.

Why am I telling you this? Three reasons: one, I didn’t have a blog in April and I wanted to give my basic views on the game; two, I just love watching Munster lose!

And three, it sets us up perfectly for tomorrow…

“Hell hath no fury like a Munster scorned.”
OK, so I know that’s not exactly Shakespeare but it rings true – a Munster side who desperately want revenge on you is a dangerous creature.

And Ulster must be careful. The 23 players who will travel up to Belfast tomorrow will all be looking to redeem the Red Army’s pride. Indeed, 11 of those 23 were part of that Heineken Cup side and will not want to lose again, especially when not just pride is at stake, but a domestic 100% record.

Yes, both sides are two of three teams that are undefeated in the PRO12 so far (the Scarlets being the other). And under new coaches, that is no mean feat (amazingly, the same goes for the Scarlets), especially when those two coaches are relatively unproven before their arrival in Ireland.

But which side will be happier with their first two performances? On reflection you must go with Ulster, who saw off two of last season’s semi-finalists, one of which was actually the champions whom they beat on their home turf. Although they weren’t fantastic performances, those two Ulster sides did what many Ulster teams before them haven’t done before – they gritted it out and got the win.

That said, Munster fans certainly won’t be unhappy either, they went to Murrayfield and defeated last season’s Heineken Cup semi-finalists Edinburgh in a tough encounter and also saw off a spirited Treviso side at home. However, their performance against Treviso was shabby and was a game that other play-off contenders would be targeting as a bonus point game. Results may be good, performances maybe not.

So to the game itself and Ulster welcome back Stephen Ferris and Andrew Trimble to the first team for the first time since the Heineken Cup final. Paddy Jackson returns after injury to partner Paul Marshall at half back, while Tom Court, Nigel Brady and John Afoa make up an all-change front row.

Munster also have internationals back in the shape of Ronan O’Gara, Conor Murray and Keith Earls, but only to the bench. Donncha O’Callaghan returns to the team once more, while David Kilcoyne starts in place of Wian du Preez at tighthead prop. Their back line is unchanged.

But where will the game be lost and won?

Two places come to mind. One is the scrum, where Ulster made the platform for their win against the Ospreys last week. Munster’s scrum is known for being rather dominant, but without powerhouse du Preez at tighthead, will young prop David Kilcoyne be able to stand up against World Cup winner John Afoa? The other place is in the crowd. I know, rather cheesy, but it’s true. If the Ulster fans get behind their boys from the very start it is very hard for away teams to win in Ravenhill. The Ravenhill Roar could prove decisive.

I’m feeling positive this week and our strong team out makes me feel even better. I believe our scrum should dominate and with Stephen Ferris running at their back line I can see us denying them a losing bonus point. Prediction – Ulster by 8.

Gatland roars to Lions job
I’m surprised I haven’t written about this yet. Congratulations to Warren Gatland for his deserved appointment as the 2013 British & Irish Lions coach for their tour to Australia. Although, with not many other people putting their hands, it made life very easy for the selectors.

But before he’s even begun to look at what he wants to do with the Lions, he’s faced with issues. Mainly in France. And yes, you’re probably thinking, ‘But France have nothing to do with the Lions.’ Yes and no. Yes, they don’t provide any players. No, they do have a league that has British & Irish players in it. And the Top14 sides are very strict on their release dates.

Why? Well, the Top14 season finishes on the 1st June with the grand final, the same day the Lions officially begin their tour with a friendly against the Barbarians in Hong Kong. And with Toulon, Clermont, Perpignan and others vying for a place in the final, many players may still be training for that final.

Players playing in the Top14 that would be in contention for a Lions cap would include Steffon Armitage (Toulon), Jonny Wilkinson (Toulon), Mike Phillips (Bayonne), Luke Charteris (Perpignan), Lee Byrne (Clermont) and Gethin Jenkins (Toulon), among others.

Gatland has said that he will try and force the French sides to release their players if they are indeed called up. But the French sides have reacted angrily saying the players have signed contracts and should stick by them. It’s not a case that will be resolved quickly…

But moving on from the negatives, it seems likely that Gatland will appoint Leinster coach Joe Schmidt as his second-in-command. Schmidt obviously has experience in Australia, and after leading Leinster to their third Heineken Cup in four seasons, is one of the best coaches in the game at the moment. Gatland would be wise to move quickly before Leinster move to keep him in Ireland for the summer.

There's a long way to go, but a team is probably already forming in Gatland's head. But a lot can change in eight months...

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