CHAMPIONS ELECT?

So here we go – two games for Ulster to prove that they are one of the best sides in Europe. If they are to repeat the incredible feat of reaching the Heineken Cup final from last season then they will have to be at their very best for these two games, otherwise they could face an early exit from Europe altogether.

First up are Glasgow at Ravenhill, and after disposing of the Scarlets last weekend, Ulster will head into the game confident they can do the same to their closest Pro12 rivals this weekend too. But the Scots are high on confidence too after winning their last three games in a row, most recently seeing off Treviso by a 41-7 scoreline.

Time for Ulster to show if they can handle the pressure and live up to the hype…

One defeat can cause so many problems

It’s incredible what Ulster’s loss to Northampton has done for their quarter-final hopes. It hasn’t decreased the likelihood that they will get there – but the likelihood of them getting a home quarter-final has decreased dramatically. Had they beaten the Saints, Ulster would almost be guaranteed a home quarter-final if they won tomorrow. As it is, they are not.

What Ulster can do tomorrow is win the pool. If Northampton manage to beat Castres at Franklin’s Gardens, all Ulster have to do is to match their result to qualify. However, it is a case of easier said than done for Ulster, because Glasgow haven’t sent a side over to Belfast simply to make up the numbers.

The team that has come over is one that will undoubtedly challenge for the win. There is more than just points at stake for them – if they can come away from the game with the win that will be a massive boost for their Pro12 hopes. It will prove to themselves, and others, that they can win the big games, something that they haven’t really done over the last few years.

And that is exactly what Ulster will take strength from. Glasgow aren’t exactly thought of as a team that strikes fear into the hearts of their opponents and Ulster certainly won’t be thinking of them as any major threat. That said, they won’t be taking the Scotstoun side lightly either – they’re second in the Pro12 for a reason.

One of those reasons is the fact that they are incredibly hard to break down. The Glaswegians boast one of the best defences in Europe, which means Ulster will have to be on their clinical best to come away with the points.

When I use the phrase “clinical best”, it especially applies to one player – Nick Williams. Williams is back to his bruising best and Ulster need him to use his extreme strength to hit the Warriors defence. The flying wingers of Craig Gilroy and Andrew Trimble will both be looking to prove themselves ahead of the 6 Nations against strong opposition in Kiwi Sean Maitland and Canadian DTH van der Merwe.

Where the game will be won is in the scrum. Glasgow will try and use their scrum to counter-act Ulster’s dominance in the backs, but if Ulster gain the upper hand then they should have the base to really attack the Scots. If the forwards do their job, then they will give Pienaar the service at the base to allow the backs to do their job too.

It will be a tough task for Ulster. Glasgow know that they could cause a massive upset with a win, but realistically they have nothing to play for. If the home side can gain control early on then the match should be theirs for the taking, and a bonus point may even be on offer. With the added incentives of the quarter-finals beckoning, and the talent they have, it is a real possibility. As I said for the Castres match back in October – it’s the Heineken Cup. Why not? Prediction – Ulster by 19 (BP)

Teams

Ulster have made five changes to the side that beat the Scarlets last weekend. Dan Tuohy and Luke Marshall both drop out due to injury and are replaced by Iain Henderson and Paddy Wallace respectively. Rory Best returns to the starting line-up along with John Afoa and Jared Payne who both return from injury.

Glasgow go one further and make six changes to their side that beat Treviso last Friday, the most notable change being Duncan Weir replacing Ruaridh Jackson at out-half. Peter Murchie and Sean Maitland replace Sean Hogg and Tommy Seymour in the back three, while James Eddie replaces the injured Ryan Wilson in the back row. Tom Ryder returns to the starting line-up at lock and Peter Horne takes up the 12 shirt again.

At Ravenhill, 8pm

Heineken Cup round 5
Live on Sky Sports 2 and Sky Sports 2HD

ULSTER

15. Jared Payne, 14. Andrew Trimble, 13. Darren Cave, 12. Paddy Wallace, 11. Craig Gilroy, 10. Paddy Jackson, 9. Ruan Pienaar; 1. Tom Court, 2. Rory Best, 3. John Afoa, 4. Lewis Stevenson, 5. Iain Henderson, 6. Robbie Diack, 7. Chris Henry (c), 8. Nick Williams.

16. Rob Herring, 17. Callum Black, 18. Declan Fitzpatrick, 19. Neil McComb, 20. Roger Wilson, 21. Paul Marshall, 22. Mike Allen, 23. Chris Cochrane.

GLASGOW WARRIORS

15. Peter Murchie, 14. Sean Maitland, 13. Alex Dunbar, 12. Peter Horne, 11. DTH van der Merwe, 10. Duncan Weir, 9. Henry Pyrgos; 1. Ryan Grant, 2. Doug Hall, 3. Moray Low, 4. Tom Ryder, 5. Al Kellock (c), 6. James Eddie, 7. Rob Harley, 8. Josh Strauss.

16. Pat MacArthur, 17. Gordon Reid, 18. N/A, 19. Nick Campbell, 20. Tim Swinson, 21. Niko Matawalu, 22. Scott Wight, 23. Stuart Hogg.

Referee: Pascal Gauzere (Fra)

Assistant Referees: Laurent Cardona, Stéphane Pomarède (both Fra)
Citing Commissioner: Peter Larter (Eng)
TMO: Hervé Dubes (Fra)

On the other hand…

…there are some other big games in Europe this weekend, all of which will contribute to the overall picture of Heineken Cup qualification:

P4: Northampton Saints v Castres Olympique – Home win

P6: Sale Sharks v Montpellier – Away win
P3: Harlequins v Connacht Rugby – Home win
P3: Zebre v Biarritz Olympique Pays Basque – Away win
P6: Toulon v Cardiff Blues – Home win (BP)
P1: Racing Metro 92 v Saracens – Away win
P5: Leinster Rugby v Scarlets – Home win
P5: ASM Clermont Auvergne v Exeter Chiefs – Home win (BP)
P1: Edinburgh Rugby v Munster Rugby – Away win
P2: Ospreys v Leicester Tigers – Home win
P2: Toulouse v Benetton Treviso – Home win (BP)