They know they can win away in the Heineken
Cup. They’ve done it three times this season already and there are plenty of
memories still vivid in the minds of the Heineken Cup quarter-final last year
down in Limerick. It’s not impossible to win away.
April can’t come quickly enough…
Looking
ahead
First up will be an away trip to Saracens in
London. Or Milton Keynes. Or maybe even further afield. The number of venues
that Saracens have been at this season is ridiculous. And that’s just their
home venues.
Stadium:mk in Northampton, Vicarage Road in
Watford, Wembley and Twickenham in London – even Brussels in Belgium have been
used as home grounds by the Saracens this season! They are moving into a new
stadium in February (the Allianz Park in Barnet), but the moving about will
have done nothing for their fan base except agitate them. The new stadium isn’t
exactly handy either – it’s half an hour away from where the majority of their
supporters are based.
The game is likely to be played either in the
Allianz Park or Vicarage Road. If they can get in temporary seating then it
will go to the Allianz. If not, they’ll head back to the Vicarage for their
third final match at the stadium, after they said an early goodbye at the end
of last season and on Sunday as well.
Out of all of the home quarter-final teams,
Saracens are probably the easiest. Not that they are an easy team to play, not
at all. But Harlequins very rarely lose at the Twickenham Stoop, Clermont
haven’t lost at the Stade Marcel-Michelin in 53 games, and Toulon have so many
star players in their ranks that nobody wants to face them.
Ulster can win the game. But they’ll have to
get all of their big players back and play at the top of their game. Sarries
play a very dull game, but it is very effective. They barrel their way forward
through their big men up front and then use Owen Farrell to kick the penalties
they get. It will be crucial for Ulster to match them up front and then
outclass them in the backs. Getting Nick Williams back in time could prove the
difference.
The winners will then play the winners of
Toulon vs. Leicester at home. Speaking of that match, it will be some battle as
well. Leicester have proved this season that they can mix it with the best,
grinding out their win over Toulouse with relative ease. However, Toulon, with
the riches of talent they have in their ranks, should have enough to see them
off with points to spare. Expect Leicester to come out fighting though.
The other two quarter-finals should be home
bankers though. As much as I want Munster to win in the Twickenham Stoop, I just
cannot see that happening. Harlequins are much better in every area and should
breeze through. They would then go away to Clermont or Montpellier in the
semi-finals – with the former likely to be those opponents. Their home form is remarkable
and Montpellier are unlikely to end their unrivalled record. Expect a lot of
tries to be run in.
Right now, I’d put money on an Ulster vs.
Clermont final. However there is a lot of rugby to be played between then and
now and a lot can change. No matter what happens though, it’s looking like it
will be a cracking weekend of rugby in April.
Leinster
in a good place
You’re probably questioning this. After
losing both home and away to Heineken Cup favourites Clermont, Leinster are now
out of the Heineken Cup and most now turn their attentions to the second tier
tournament in Europe – the Amlin Challenge Cup. Most notably, they definitely
won’t be in the Aviva to defend their trophy.
However, the Amlin is not a bad competition. Look
at the quality that is in it this year – Toulouse, Perpignan, Gloucester and
Stade Francais will line up alongside Leinster to try and emerge victorious,
and the Boys in Blue will have to be on top form to win. None of those sides
will go down without a fight.
The way the draw has been made, I’m going for
a Leinster vs. Toulouse final in the RDS. That is, if Leinster take the
tournament seriously. There is the concern that they will see it as the
“secondary” competition and simply field a second side in order to focus on the
league. In my opinion, this would be a poor call.
Firstly because it would be criminal to spurn
the chance of a trophy. Leinster are by far the strongest side in the
competition, and if they put their minds to it, they could walk this
tournament. Easily. A trophy in the cabinet will look very nice at the end of
the season and will go a long way to boosting their confidence for next season.
Also, it will be the more likely way of
Connacht to get back into the Heineken Cup. If Leinster win, then all four
provinces will be back in Europe’s premier competition next season, and if the
IRFU really want the Westies to grow as a province, then this must happen. It
would be incredibly selfish of Leinster to throw it.
In all honesty, it’s Leinster’s to lose – and
hopefully they don’t…
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