That will be the last thing on Ulster and
Mark Anscombe’s mind though. First of all, they must do the job in Ravenhill,
and then let the other result take care of itself. But they must be wary of a
strong Saints backlash – this is a side that must win, or they will be out of Europe. It is a win, or nothing
for them.
So it should be set up for a great game of
rugby…
Home
comforts
It’s hard to believe that it’s six weeks
since Ulster last played a match at Ravenhill. That game was a 45-20 mauling of
Edinburgh and was only the province’s ninth victory of the season. Since then,
they have gone on to win away twice in Italy at Zebre and Treviso, in Llanelli
against the Scarlets, and finally last weekend they notched up another
impressive away victory over the Northampton Saints.
That’s now thirteen wins in a row and it is a
super run that Anscombe’s side have put together. But standing in front of
their fourteenth win is the same side that capitulated against them last weekend
– the Northampton Saints. And as I said, beware a wounded Saints side – they
are out for revenge. Because they were
taken apart at home like they have never been before.
Despite being on top by way of statistics
(they had the vast majority of possession and territory), they weren’t on top
when it came to the scoreline – and that’s what mattered the most. Every
opportunity that fell to the Ulstermen was taken without hesitation, and that
was why they left Franklin’s Gardens with the full five points on offer.
That win will count for nothing though if
they don’t back it up this weekend. The win last weekend was one of the best in
the club’s history. But a loss tomorrow would rank in one of the worst losses
for them. After dismantling the Saints on their own patch, it would be a
massive disappointment if they couldn’t come away with the win at home as well.
But a lot of people are getting ahead of
themselves – this game is by no means a given victory. Forget what happened
last week, Northampton will have looked at that game and then forgotten about
it. It was a rare blip in their season and they will be looking to show that it
will not happen again and they will come back stronger than ever.
Indeed, what are the permutations of an
Ulster loss? It would immediately bring Northampton back into the picture, and
it would elevate Castres into a very good position heading into Rounds 5 and 6,
if they beat Glasgow as predicted. It would tighten the Pool up a lot –
something which Ulster will not want at all, bearing in mind they have to
travel to the Stade Pierre Antoine for that final match.
The team is very similar to the one that was
selected last week. The only change is a forced one – Iain Henderson moves into
the second row in place of the injured Johann Muller, and Nick Williams slots
into 6. And this is expected – why change a winning side? This side has all the
experience and talent needed for the job and even come away with a bonus point.
On the flipside, the Saints make six changes
to their side. The most obvious one is the introduction of Mike Haywood at
hooker instead of the suspended Dylan Hartley while, surprisingly, England
international Courtney Lawes is relegated to the bench and replaced by
vice-captain Phil Dowson. In the back line Tom May comes in for Dom Waldouck at
inside centre. The half backs are completely changed as well, after last week’s
dismal showing – Lee Dickson and Stephen Myler take over at 9 and 10. Brian
Mujati is also dropped, his place being taken by England Saxon Paul
Doran-Jones.
The Ulster game plan will be much the same as
last week’s – beat the Saints in the scrum, and then let the backs loose on a
weak Northampton defence. If they play with the same intensity, same power and
same accuracy as last week, coupled with the ‘Ravenhill Roar’ it could be a
cricket score. If that intensity drops by even a couple of per cent, it could
be a completely different story.
As for my prediction, I think Ulster will
win. With the Saints gunning for the win, and after last week’s performances, I
don’t think they will be as poor as they were then. I also don’t think Ulster
will come away with the bonus point either simply because they aren’t targeting
it. And I’m sure I speak for all Ulster fans when I say I would take a 3-0 win
right now. Prediction – Ulster by 9.
Saturday 15th December, 6pm
RavenhillLive on Sky Sports 1 HD from 5:45pm
ULSTER
15. Jared Payne, 14. Tommy Bowe, 13. Darren
Cave, 12. Paddy Wallace, 11. Andrew Trimble, 10. Paddy Jackson, 9. Ruan Pienaar;
1. Tom Court, 2. Rory Best, 3. John Afoa, 4. Iain Henderson, 5. Dan Tuohy, 6.
Nick Williams, 7. Chris Henry (c), 8. Roger Wilson.
16. Nigel Brady, 17. Callum Black, 18. Ricky
Lutton, 19. Neil McComb, 20. Robbie Diack, 21. Paul Marshall, 22. Luke
Marshall, 23. Craig Gilroy.
NORTHAMPTON SAINTS
15. Ben Foden, 14. Ken Pisi, 13. George Pisi,
12. Tom May, 11. James Elliott, 10. Stephen Myler, 9. Lee Dickson; 1. Soane
Tonga’uiha, 2. Mikey Haywood, 3. Paul Doran-Jones, 4. Samu Manoa, 5. Calum
Clark, 6. Tom Wood, 7. Phil Dowson (c), 8. GJ van Velze.
16. Ross
McMillan, 17. Alex Waller, 18. Brian Mujati, 19. Mark
Sorenson, 20. Courtney Lawes, 21. Martin Roberts, 22. Ryan Lamb, 23. Luther
Burrell.
Referee: Nigel Owens (Wales)
Assistant referees: Gwyn Morris, Jonathan
Mason (both Wales)TMO: Derek Bevan (Wales)
Around
the grounds
This is a crucial weekend for many teams –
it’s the first weekend where teams can be officially knocked out of the
Heineken Cup, and it’s the first weekend where a team can qualify for the
quarter-finals. Here’s how I think it will go down…
Edinburgh Rugby vs. Racing Metro 92 – Away win
Biarritz Olympique Pays Basque vs. Connacht
Rugby – Home win (TBP)Ospreys vs. Toulouse – Away win
Benetton Treviso vs. Leicester Tigers – Away win
Harlequins vs. Zebre – Home win (TBP)
Exeter Chiefs vs. Scarlets – Home win
Leinster Rugby vs. ASM Clermont Auvergne – Home win
Montpellier vs. Cardiff Blues – Home win
Castres Olympique vs. Glasgow Warriors – Home win
Saracens vs. Munster Rugby – Home win
Toulon vs. Sale Sharks – Home win (TBP)
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