Saturday 1 December 2012

TOP OF THE TABLE TUSSLE

Ulster have never won all four games in Wales. You have to go back to the 2005-06 season for their most successful year, when they won three and drew one of their games, notching up an impressive fifteen league points away from home.

However, crucially, the one draw was against – you’ve guessed it – this weekend’s opponents, the Scarlets.

But things were very different in 2006. Back then, the Scarlets played their matches in Llanelli at the now demolished Stradey Park. And they weren’t even called the Scarlets at that point; instead they were named the Llanelli Scarlets.

The match itself was a dire affair, played in terrible and conditions, and was a low scoring game. Two tries scored by Tommy Bowe and Andrew Maxwell gave Ulster a 12-0 lead after just 23 minutes, but they quickly surrendered that lead and were held to a 12-12 draw. It meant that Ulster had to win in Swansea the next weekend against the Ospreys to clinch the title, and it also ruined any hope of a perfect sweep in Wales.

This weekend, Ulster will be hoping the Scarlets don’t do the same…

Red Dragon vs. Red Hand
A very interesting stat for you this weekend – none of the Scarlets’ starting 15 have been capped for their country. Ulster have 6, and another 4 on the bench.

The game is a very interesting one as well as it may well decide how Ulster head into the rest of December. A victory of any kind will put Ulster in the clear – anywhere between eight to eleven points clear in the league as a matter of fact. A defeat will be the complete opposite however. They will take just a slim league lead into the tricky Christmas interprovincials against Leinster and Munster, and will have to face Northampton in the Heineken Cup having had the bombshell of losing their first game.

The Italian games count for nothing now. Ulster are back to as full strength as possible and will be thanking their lucky stars that they are still an undefeated side – and they will still want that to be true by the end of the weekend. If they go to Llanelli with the right mindset and the players play to their full potential then that should be enough.

There’s a saying, “Don’t count your chickens before they’ve hatched.” Replace ‘chickens’ with ‘points’ and ‘hatched’ with ‘been won’ and you have the scenario for Ulster this weekend.

“Don’t count your points before they’ve been won.”

A lot of people are saying this game should be a walk in the park. Undefeated Ulster with their full side back take on a Scarlets side minus a dozen players due to international call-ups – the result should be in no doubt. But let me assure you now, that will not be the case. You only have to go back to last Sunday to see just what this Scarlets side is capable of – beating the mighty Munster at Musgrave Park.

In atrocious conditions, ‘The Fever’ (as they’re affectionately nicknamed by their fans) forced their way to a famous 13-6 victory in Cork – one which they will remember for a long time. Not only did that keep them in touch with Ulster at the top of the table, it sent out a message to the rest of the league. The Scarlets are not to be messed with.

And Mark Anscombe will have to tell his team that this Sunday. If any of the Ulster players think it is a case of just turning up, then they will be in for a tough afternoon. Instead, they will have to draw on their experience and talent to see off a spirited and resilient opposition.

The return of Johann Muller and Rory Best could not have been timed better. The week before the Heineken Cup, they will both get crucial time ahead of the Northampton matches. Their leadership skills won’t go amiss either – it’s something Ulster seem to have been lacking the last few weeks.

The scrum is where the game will be won. Last weekend, the Scarlets front row pulverised their Munster opponents and it will be up to Callum Black, Rob Herring and John Afoa to ensure that they are not their second victims. Anscombe’s selection of Black probably indicates that the Ulster management realise the threat of the scrum as they may consider the 26-year old to be a marginally better ‘scrummager’ than Court.

Tomorrow’s game will also be a chance for Anscombe to decide whether he wants to go with Andrew Trimble or Craig Gilroy for the Heineken Cup double-header. Over the last month both have proved themselves to be brilliant players, and many people would say Gilroy is now edging ahead in the race for selection, now that he has superseded his provincial team-mate in the Ireland set-up. Whoever plays better tomorrow could play themselves into the 11 shirt for Friday.

This is a banana skin match, make no mistake. On paper it would look to be a five-pointer for Ulster. On the pitch, and with the poor weather predicted, it could be a completely different story. I still think Ulster will win. Not with the bonus point though. Prediction – Ulster by 9.

At Parc y Scarlets, Sunday 2nd November, 4pm
Live on RTE TWO, S4/C and BBC2 NI

SCARLETS: 15. Dan Newton, 14. Kristian Phillips, 13. Gareth Maule, 12. Gareth Owen, 11. Andy Fenby, 10. Aled Thomas, 9. Gareth Davies; 1. Phil John, 2. Emyr Phillips, 3. Jacobie Adriaanse, 4. Johan Snyman, 5. Richard Kelly, 6. George Earle, 7. Johnathan Edwards (c), 8. Keiran Murphy.

16. Kirby Myhill, 17. Shaun Hopkins, 18. Deacon Manu, 19. Tomas Vallejos, 20. Craig Price, 21. Aled Davies, 22. Adam Warren, 23. Nick Reynolds.

ULSTER: 15. Peter Nelson, 14. Andrew Trimble, 13. Darren Cave, 12. Luke Marshall, 11. Craig Gilroy, 10. Paddy Jackson, 9. Paul Marshall; 1. Callum Black, 2. Rob Herring, 3. John Afoa, 4. Johann Muller (c), 5. Neil McComb, 6. Iain Henderson, 7. Robbie Diack, 8. Roger Wilson.

16. Rory Best, 17. Tom Court, 18. Ricky Lutton, 19. Dan Tuohy, 20. Mike McComish, 21. Michael Heaney, 22. Niall O’Connor, 23. Tommy Bowe.

Referee: Peter Fitzgibbon (IRFU)
Assistants: James Jones, Chris Williams (both WRU)
TMO: Nigel Whitehouse (WRU)
Citing commissioner: Aurwell Morgan (WRU)

Around the grounds
After the Ospreys’ success last night, it is a big weekend in Celtic rugby for Ulster…
Connacht vs. Edinburgh – Away win
Treviso vs. Dragons – Home win
Leinster vs. Zebre – Home win (TBP)
Munster vs. Glasgow – Home win

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